ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Aric Dunn]

TVCN yet again north of NHC. Trend has been north with the models all day, will it continue?

https://i.postimg.cc/RVRGf11D/storm-05-ens.gif

We’ve seen it before!

and we have seen them go against the model consensus. as they did with Dorian already multiple times...sooo

[gatorcane]

It seems as if a recurve or at least curve well north of Florida is now on the table looking at several models such as GFS, legacy GFS, JMA, to name a few.

Add the NAVGEM too. Definitely recurve just offshore US seems on the table suddenly. Chances look small but the chances have certainly increased some.

[hohnywx]

TVCN yet again north of NHC. Trend has been north with the models all day, will it continue?

https://i.postimg.cc/RVRGf11D/storm-05-ens.gif

The BAMs seem to be the only ones initializing from the correct location on that plot.

[tgenius]

It seems as if a recurve or at least curve well north of Florida is now on the table looking at several models such as GFS, legacy GFS, JMA, to name a few.

Add the NAVGEM too. Definitely recurve just offshore US seems on the table suddenly.

Models didn’t initialize correctly. Take them with grain of salt.

[invest man]

The majority of 18z GFS ensemble members continue to hit the east coast of FL. The a few stronger ones turn N before the FL coast: https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidanc ... ?tcid=AL05

Just curious. Why does those models turn it up and curve kinda of like Floyd 1999? Are they responding to an approaching cold front or the periphery of the Bermuda High. Not suggesting that those scenarios will pan out but what are those ensembles seeing? Anybody have a reason? IM

[stormlover2013]

Jma has been bad all year with systems, navy is absolute horrible, gfs has been up and down like no other, till euro, ukmet, icon go on there side then we can start talking

[HDGator]

TVCN yet again north of NHC. Trend has been north with the models all day, will it continue?

https://i.postimg.cc/RVRGf11D/storm-05-ens.gif

It's always the same story. How good of a handle do the models have on a building ridge 4-5 days out?
Their track record doesn't give me much faith. It's down to wait and see when we have better data.

[Hammy]

It seems as if a recurve or at least curve well north of Florida is now on the table looking at several models such as GFS, legacy GFS, JMA, to name a few.

Add the NAVGEM too. Definitely recurve just offshore US seems on the table suddenly.

Models didn’t initialize correctly. Take them with grain of salt.

Seems like nobody's getting much sleep tonight if they want decent runs

[AutoPenalti]

Any model that was initialized at 18z is pretty much for satire at this point.

[TheStormExpert]

Give Florida Something is apparently at it again with it’s old tricks! We’ll luck out big time if this ends of going OTS!

[Blown Away]

18Z GFS ensembles... Not clear cut...

[ronjon]

The 18z EURO shows a stout High that turns Dorian westward at 90 hrs it shows Dorian west of Abaco heading west toward South Florida.

Euro definitely faster than GFS and other models taking the system to the east coast. Not sure if its differences in speed or ridge strength driving the different solutions. Euro just gets to the east coast 24 hrs sooner and thus the ridging is stronger.

[toad strangler]

WATCH LEVI’S VIDEO to really gain knowledge on the key players at hand

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1166512400004190208

[Bhuggs]

Does the wrong initialization have an effect on the ridge and overall steering pattern?

[Aric Dunn]

The 18z EURO shows a stout High that turns Dorian westward at 90 hrs it shows Dorian west of Abaco heading west toward South Florida.

Euro definitely faster than GFS and other models taking the system to the east coast. Not sure if its differences in speed or ridge strength driving the different solutions. Euro just gets to the east coast 24 hrs sooner and thus the ridging is stronger.

well to the coast yeah.. the angle of approach is different and is farther south. so of course it reaches the coast sooner. check a longitude.

[robbielyn]

Does the wrong initialization have an effect on the ridge and overall steering pattern?

according to levi no. what makes it east is an ull couple with mlc that separates from td #6 and dorian has to circumvent it but will be pulled back west. what will really influence track and landfall is how strong the ridge ends up being whether we get landfall in fl or up the coast or oos.

[bamajammer4eva]

It seems that the GFS and Euro are in agreement of the overall track with the 18z GEFS members coming closer in line with the 12z EPS. Beyond 120 hrs is for entertainment only so here is the first 120 of 00z/12z EPS and 12z/18z GEFS to compare

[ronjon]

I think we've seen two big changes in the guidance today. 1) the system will be stronger with the possibility of a major hurricane approaching the east coast and 2) the 500 mb ridging may be weaker allowing Dorian to ride the coast perhaps out to sea. The 00z suite of runs will be interesting.

[jeff]

Does the wrong initialization have an effect on the ridge and overall steering pattern?

No it does not

[Nimbus]

WATCH LEVI’S VIDEO to really gain knowledge on the key players at hand

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1166512400004190208

Recon found a lower surface pressure on the last pass so the core structure is likely to make it north of Puerto Rico where it will be traveling with the flow around the Upper level low.

Upper level lows will likely be in a position to ventilate Dorian later in the forecast.

I'm wondering if the weaker ridging scenario that is currently an outlier solution has any chance of validating or whether they are just trying to buy time for a more accurate landfall?


The models might see TD6 keeping a toe in the door so that the weakness is a little more persistent but that won't be enough to allow a recurve.