ATL: DORIAN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1141 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:19 pm

A few small shifts west and that GFS legacy run would be recurving through Southern Florida. That is 144 hours out so well within the error range for the model.

Image
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1142 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:21 pm

Image
18Z HWRF-P bombs out into Cat 4/5...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthFloridawx

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1143 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:24 pm

Looks like the 0Z model is slower than the 18z
Image

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1144 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:24 pm

Image
18z HWRF... Bonkers Cat/4/5
Last edited by Blown Away on Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2139
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1145 Postby Highteeld » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:27 pm

18z EPS Suite:
Image
Image
0 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Top
Bhuggs
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 56
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:22 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1146 Postby Bhuggs » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:29 pm

0z guidance does look like another north shift and more of an open door. Ridge watch time
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1147 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:29 pm



A lot of clustering just off the S.Fla coast...
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:
Contact toad strangler

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1148 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:32 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:


A lot of clustering just off the S.Fla coast...


Which way are the moving lol
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2139
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1149 Postby Highteeld » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:36 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:


A lot of clustering just off the S.Fla coast...


Which way are the moving lol

NW. A few showed signs of curving like the gfs at hour 144.
0 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1150 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:37 pm

Bhuggs wrote:0z guidance does look like another north shift and more of an open door. Ridge watch time

Those are the ensembles...
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2139
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1151 Postby Highteeld » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:39 pm

EPS.GIF

Image
4 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Top
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthFloridawx

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1152 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:41 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
Bhuggs wrote:0z guidance does look like another north shift and more of an open door. Ridge watch time

Those are the ensembles...

Yep, you are right. My bad.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1153 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:48 pm

Mind boggling that there is so much difference between the GFS and Euro by 96-120 hours with the GFS showing a weaker ridge north of Dorian thus a more hook to the right while approaching FL on Saturday/Sunday. But this is where the Euro does the best in the 4-5 day range. We will see.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1154 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:53 pm

Those 18z EURO ensembles are evenly spread out from Miami through Jacksonville.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1155 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:54 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Those 18z EURO ensembles are evenly spread out from Miami through Jacksonville.

A reminder that everything is still on the table. The trend can and will go either way.
1 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1156 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:00 pm

Really curious as to what 0z guidance will have.

Euro has a stronger ridge, known to sometimes overdo ridging. GFS has a slightly weaker ridge, know to underdo ridging.

UKMET has been doing okay so far.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20011
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1157 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:20 pm

18z Euro has Dorian almost missing PR to the east at hour 24, then turning and moving due west between hour 75 and hour 90. Stronger and a little further north than the 12Z.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1158 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:21 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Really curious as to what 0z guidance will have.

Euro has a stronger ridge, known to sometimes overdo ridging. GFS has a slightly weaker ridge, know to underdo ridging.

UKMET has been doing okay so far.


Yep, the UKMET had been persistent for Dorian to track over Puerto Rico during the last couple of days while the majority of models were closer or over Hispaniola.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1159 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:23 pm

In the "grain of salt/for what it's worth" group, the 00z NAM shows a strengthening storm heading WNW toward Grand Bahama at the end of its run.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Top
User avatar
cjrciadt
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1616
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:11 pm
Location: Kissimmee, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1160 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:23 pm

tolakram wrote:18z Euro has Dorian almost missing PR to the east at hour 24, then turning and moving due west between hour 75 and hour 90

Im worried Dorian will stair step, instead of the smoother WNW bend most models want to play out.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests