ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, still an elongated circulation with multiple vorts rotating around it and hardly any convection in its northern half periphery.

[otowntiger]

I don't see any changes from 12 hours ago. Still a sheared, poorly-organized storm. Center is exposed north of the convection. No sign of convection wrapping around it. Time to finish up the next advisory before my 7am conference call...

That’s really good news as it would relate to potential wind, storm surge effects. However will storm structure have much effect on the amount of rain that could very will be dumped by this system, resulting in significant inland flooding, which I believe has always been the main concern, right?

[Steve]

Wow, still an elongated circulation with multiple vorts rotating around it and hardly any convection in its northern half periphery.

It’s still the way it’s supposed to look til landfall I’m pretty grateful as we currently have onshore feed but it’s mostly clouds and sprinkles so far. That should save us 5” today. That should change by tonight

[chaser1]

From my perspective, Barry looks "barely". On the other hand, I get the sense that the MLC is continuing a more 270 direction and the upper level conditions look to improve if a more westward track continues (verse a sooner NW as NHC suggests). I think T.S. Barely might actually begin to develop co-located COC convection by late today and I could see a potential for a track a bit more westward that would enhance the risk to the Texas coastline and provide an increased amount of time over water. Will have to see if a better alignment begins to take shape by later in the day, but any convection to bomb out over center would certainly suggest the possibility of a tighter core trying to take place.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see any changes from 12 hours ago. Still a sheared, poorly-organized storm. Center is exposed north of the convection. No sign of convection wrapping around it. Time to finish up the next advisory before my 7am conference call...

That’s really good news as it would relate to potential wind, storm surge effects. However will storm structure have much effect on the amount of rain that could very will be dumped by this system, resulting in significant inland flooding, which I believe has always been the main concern, right?

This is my own opinion so take it for what it is worth. I believe at least New Orleans might have dodged a worse bullet IF it doesn't get much stronger wind wise. A stronger Easterly wind fetch would make a difference on how much storm surge and water flowing out of the MS River takes place. But rainfall totals will be the big concern here.

[T-man]

998mb, still getting stronger.

[wxman57]

I don't see any changes from 12 hours ago. Still a sheared, poorly-organized storm. Center is exposed north of the convection. No sign of convection wrapping around it. Time to finish up the next advisory before my 7am conference call...

That’s really good news as it would relate to potential wind, storm surge effects. However will storm structure have much effect on the amount of rain that could very will be dumped by this system, resulting in significant inland flooding, which I believe has always been the main concern, right?

This is my own opinion so take it for what it is worth. I believe at least New Orleans might have dodged a worse bullet IF it doesn't get much stronger wind wise. A stronger Easterly wind fetch would make a difference on how much storm surge and water flowing out of the MS River takes place. But rainfall totals will be the big concern here.

The rain bullet is still heading for south Louisiana. I don't expect much in the way of wind impacts inland. "Landfall" of something resembling a poorly-defined center in 24 hours.

[gatorcane]

Looks like there are hints it is going to start wrapping the convection around the center. I expect this to look more like a classic cyclone by this time tomorrow. Major rain and flooding event looks to be possible.

[psyclone]

Barry has become the standard issue June slop storm a few weeks late. Just unable to make it work despite the warm sea temps. I'm still mindful that the most outrageous one day rain event I've witnessed transpired in such a system (Debby 2012).

[TheStormExpert]

Does anyone else get the vibe that this season is going to feature a lot of weak sloppy storms like in 2012 or 2001?

[MississippiWx]

While Barry is still not the best looking storm, the models have been advertising what is currently happening. The center is taking a dive to the south and southeast into the convection at the moment. This is when the models have been showing the most strengthening. What Barry can do now with the center tucking under convection is going to determine the eventual strength. Of course, the ultimate issue is still going to be flooding.

[tarheelprogrammer]

While Barry is still not the best looking storm, the models have been advertising what is currently happening. The center is taking a dive to the south and southeast into the convection at the moment. This is when the models have been showing the most strengthening. What Barry can do now with the center tucking under convection is going to determine the eventual strength. Of course, the ultimate issue is still going to be flooding.

Agreed, this is its time to shine, or not shine. Most of us hope that it doesn't get any stronger, including me. In terms of impacts, I can tell you from personal experience that rain is a big issue. When I evacuated from the coast during Florence, I thought I was fine. However, I evacuated to a place not far from the Cape Fear river and had to evacuate again a few miles away due to the massive amount of rain that had been falling. The moral of this story is if you underestimate the power of flooding rain, you will be made to look like a fool. Be prepared if you live in LA.

[TheStormExpert]

Half-Tropical Storm Barry

[StormLogic]

63 mph winds recorded, seen it on noaa screens during a live stream just now

[Kazmit]

63 mph winds recorded, seen it on noaa screens during a live stream just now

Gusts or sustained?

[tarheelprogrammer]

63 mph winds recorded, seen it on noaa screens during a live stream just now

Yes, and the center is being tucked into the convection. I have taken a look at shear maps and it appears that it is entering a light shear region of the GOM.

[TheStormExpert]

While Barry is still not the best looking storm, the models have been advertising what is currently happening. The center is taking a dive to the south and southeast into the convection at the moment. This is when the models have been showing the most strengthening. What Barry can do now with the center tucking under convection is going to determine the eventual strength. Of course, the ultimate issue is still going to be flooding.

Agreed, this is its time to shine, or not shine. Most of us hope that it doesn't get any stronger, including me. In terms of impacts, I can tell you from personal experience that rain is a big issue. When I evacuated from the coast during Florence, I thought I was fine. However, I evacuated to a place not far from the Cape Fear river and had to evacuate again a few miles away due to the massive amount of rain that had been falling. The moral of this story is if you underestimate the power of flooding rain, you will be made to look like a fool. Be prepared if you live in LA.

Clearly the Gulf is not as favorable as it had thought to be back when it was all verses the GFS. May have something to do with below normal instability, and of course the northerly shear not letting up on Barry. Hopefully this will continue to be the story of the season for whatever attempts to form in the Gulf or anywhere in the Atlantic basin.

Got to give credit where needed to the GFS, you sniffed out the less than ideal environment for a healthy strengthening tropical cyclone to thrive in.

[Frank P]

well to me after watching the VIS Sat loops just now Barry looks better than it did 24 hours ago.... plenty convection in the southern half of the storm building and hints of convection building on the east side as well, which was not existent all day yesterday... we got our first feeder band on the beach in Biloxi a few minutes ago... wind in the 20s mph, tides up a couple of feet, waves 1-2 feet, and of course sand on the HWY, not much rain however... expect to see a couple of days of this nonsense... but I'll take it...

[Patrick99]

Wow, still an elongated circulation with multiple vorts rotating around it and hardly any convection in its northern half periphery.

Yeah, weird looking TS, it looks like a croissant.

[StormLogic]

63 mph winds recorded, seen it on noaa screens during a live stream just now

Gusts or sustained?

probs gusts lol