ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Barry ate the last of the dry air just a couple of hours ago.
Give it time to digest.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Looks like the storm is underperforming much of the models. looks very poor, but it could change. NOLA may have dodged a bullet , will see in the next 12 hours if he can reform

edit: not a forecast

[Aric Dunn]

Looking better. still two vorts but shear has relaxed so convection should build sufficiently to consolidate this.

[wxman57]

Center is still exposed north of the east-west oriented squalls. No "tucking". Recon indicates winds to 45 kts (50 mph) about 120-140 miles south of the center. Nothing near the center in the way of winds. It's still a big mess. I find it hard to believe that a core of strong winds will develop prior to landfall with no surface convergence near the center. Going to be a big ran mess for south Louisiana, but not much wind impact inland.

Here's a screenshot of my workstation. Red crosshairs mark the center.

[tolakram]

The amount of rain forecast by the GFS over the next few days is extreme and very worrisome. The final strength and look of Barry is inconsequential to the trouble it will cause in my opinion.

[StormLogic]

https://col.st/rBkBI

seems to me like barry is trying to get his act together this morning

[TheProfessor]

A stronger more compact Barry would actually be better for some areas, a weaker wider storm will throw a lot more rain over a larger area.

[Aric Dunn]

winds are up to around 60 to 65 mph now per recon

[StormLogic]

63 mph winds recorded, seen it on noaa screens during a live stream just now

and now 60-65 per recon

[Aric Dunn]

63 mph winds recorded, seen it on noaa screens during a live stream just now

and now 60-65 per recon

still has not gone through the area where the highest winds are likely to be thats coming up soon.

[ava_ati]

Looks like the storm is underperforming much of the models. looks very poor, but it could change. NOLA may have dodged a bullet , will see in the next 12 hours if he can reform

edit: not a forecast

It is forecast by just about every model to become an eastern loaded system, please tell me how this rain forecast is "NOLA dodging a bullet"?

[Aric Dunn]

pressure at KGRY on the south side right at the edge of the convection has 998 mb pressure. near where the center tucked in. SO it is probably 996 or 997 mb

[Steve]

While Barry is still not the best looking storm, the models have been advertising what is currently happening. The center is taking a dive to the south and southeast into the convection at the moment. This is when the models have been showing the most strengthening. What Barry can do now with the center tucking under convection is going to determine the eventual strength. Of course, the ultimate issue is still going to be flooding.

You're right. In the internet age, too many people live only in the second and can't seem to get the bigger picture. Bastardi (before his usual anti-gw tirade stuff), explains exactly what is going to happen. The south weighted storm becomes an east weighted storm and it's game on for flooding.
https://www.weatherbell.com/

[Steve]

While Barry is still not the best looking storm, the models have been advertising what is currently happening. The center is taking a dive to the south and southeast into the convection at the moment. This is when the models have been showing the most strengthening. What Barry can do now with the center tucking under convection is going to determine the eventual strength. Of course, the ultimate issue is still going to be flooding.

Agreed, this is its time to shine, or not shine. Most of us hope that it doesn't get any stronger, including me. In terms of impacts, I can tell you from personal experience that rain is a big issue. When I evacuated from the coast during Florence, I thought I was fine. However, I evacuated to a place not far from the Cape Fear river and had to evacuate again a few miles away due to the massive amount of rain that had been falling. The moral of this story is if you underestimate the power of flooding rain, you will be made to look like a fool. Be prepared if you live in LA.

Clearly the Gulf is not as favorable as it had thought to be back when it was all verses the GFS. May have something to do with below normal instability, and of course the northerly shear not letting up on Barry. Hopefully this will continue to be the story of the season for whatever attempts to form in the Gulf or anywhere in the Atlantic basin.

Got to give credit where needed to the GFS, you sniffed out the less than ideal environment for a healthy strengthening tropical cyclone to thrive in.

It's July, maybe the GFS forgot - but otherwise, yeah.

[wxman57]

So far, only 45 kts (50 mph) from recon. One 50kt wind was flagged as rain-contaminated. Might be a 50kt surface wind that the plane missed, though. Still very poorly-organized. Not much has changed since yesterday. Center completely exposed. It will have a hard time strengthening in its present state.

[psyclone]

Yes it is July...the part of hurricane season that tends not to have hurricanes (along with June and November). If we get anything it's usually asymmetric rain bombs. That says nothing about what will happen in August-October.

[Stormcenter]

No


quote="TheStormExpert"]Does anyone else get the vibe that this season is going to feature a lot of weak sloppy storms like in 2012 or 2001?[/quote]

[Aric Dunn]

Recon finding more 59kt FL. heading into where the strongest winds should be.

11am advisory will likely be 60mph. unless they find higher shortly.

[Aric Dunn]

just found a 62kt FL and 54kt SFMR.

130300 2726N 08919W 8432 01505 0044 +161 +161 206059 060 051 016 00
130330 2728N 08920W 8433 01505 0046 +159 +159 204060 062 054 014 00


with the pressure falling lower winds sheaer its going ot be a short amount of time for this to consolidate

[ColdMiser123]

Best convection remains to the south of the broad LLC, so the structure of this system will have to change quite a bit if it is going to intensify much further. It has about another day left over water.

That being said, recon is finding the highest winds they have found so far on this pass.