ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1166333866807873537

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1166332496209960961

[otowntiger]

I'm not sure the environment in the Bahamas is as ideal as it could be otherwise more models would call for significant strengthening in that area. It seems that the track may be getting pretty well sorted out however as the NHC is actually pretty good with that 3-5 days out.

[GCANE]

Pressure up 1mb.
However, core temp increased 2C.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1166340651232808961

[WeatherEmperor]

Moving a lot more north but not organized at all

This more northerly component would be what what the UKMET was showing


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[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1166319171346587649

[abajan]

Will td6 have any influence on the path or strength of Dorian?

TD 6 has become really annoying.

It will influence the path (and, by extension, the strength - depending on whether or not it misses Hispaniola). Mark Sudduth gave a partial explanation in his video yesterday.

[Kohlecane]

Gonna be entering so pretty decent shear shortly, must be why it keeps it some what weak.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1166341697179021312

[NDG]

Good thing the dry air in the mid levels affected Dorian yesterday, it would had been close to Hurricane this morning with such great UL winds.

[NDG]

Just as we thought, its LLC is reforming further north.

[Aric Dunn]

There it is recon finds the center reforming to the north.

So it will take a couple hours to calm down.

[txwatcher91]

It looks to me like the LLC is definitely reforming further to the north. Outflow appears to be improving and some banding on the east side. Right now it appears the center reformation is right over or near Martinique.

[Sanibel]

Has the look of a little buzzsaw just waiting to get its legs...

Systems that beat the graveyard are ones that jump north above it...

[wxman57]

Winds across Martinique & Dominica so far are below the SFMR 30-35 kt sustained winds. I don't know if Dorian has any real sustained 1-min TS winds. The center is reforming northward. It still should struggle in the eastern Caribbean next 36 hrs.

Data at: 1340 UTC 27 Aug 2019
Fort de France, Martinique
TFFF 271330Z AUTO 12015KT 9999 BKN019/// OVC025/// ///CB 26/25 Q1011 TEMPO VRB25G45KT 1200 TSRA BKN012CB
TFFF 271300Z AUTO 09013KT 9999 -RA FEW013/// SCT018/// BKN023/// ///CB 26/25 Q1011 TEMPO VRB25G45KT 1200 TSRA BKN012CB
TFFF 271230Z AUTO 08017G28KT 4100 -RA BR FEW010/// BKN016/// OVC026/// ///CB 25/24 Q1010 TEMPO VRB25G45KT 1200 TSRA BKN012CB
TFFF 271200Z AUTO 08011KT 1600 RA BR FEW008/// BKN014/// BKN020/// ///CB 25/24 Q1011 TEMPO VRB25G45KT 1200 TSRA
TFFF 271130Z AUTO 07013G24KT 1400 R10/1800U +RA BR BKN012/// BKN018/// OVC023/// ///CB 25/24 Q1010 TEMPO 07030G40KT 3000 SHRA BKN018TCU
TFFF 271100Z AUTO 05008KT 360V100 4000 +RA BR FEW008/// BKN014/// BKN020/// ///CB 25/24 Q1010 TEMPO 07030G40KT BKN018TCU
TFFF 271030Z AUTO 06009KT 030V100 8000 RA SCT012/// BKN017/// BKN022/// ///CB 25/24 Q1010 TEMPO 07030G40KT 3000 SHRA
TFFF 271000Z AUTO 08015G26KT 9999 -RA SCT015/// BKN024/// BKN036/// ///CB 25/23 Q1010 TEMPO 07030G40KT 3000 SHRA

Dominica:
TDPD 271300Z 11018G35KT 4000 SHRA BKN012 27/24 Q1014
TDPD 271200Z 10010G24KT 9999 SCT014 SCT036 27/23 Q1013
TDPD 271100Z 10009G31KT 9999 SCT014 SCT034 28/24 Q1013
TDPD 271000Z 10009G19KT 9999 SCT015 SCT034 26/24 Q1013

[NDG]

Winds across Martinique & Dominica so far are below the SFMR 30-35 kt sustained winds. I don't know if Dorian has any real sustained 1-min TS winds. The center is reforming northward. It still should struggle in the eastern Caribbean next 36 hrs.

Data at: 1340 UTC 27 Aug 2019
Fort de France, Martinique
TFFF 271330Z AUTO 12015KT 9999 BKN019/// OVC025/// ///CB 26/25 Q1011 TEMPO VRB25G45KT 1200 TSRA BKN012CB
TFFF 271300Z AUTO 09013KT 9999 -RA FEW013/// SCT018/// BKN023/// ///CB 26/25 Q1011 TEMPO VRB25G45KT 1200 TSRA BKN012CB
TFFF 271230Z AUTO 08017G28KT 4100 -RA BR FEW010/// BKN016/// OVC026/// ///CB 25/24 Q1010 TEMPO VRB25G45KT 1200 TSRA BKN012CB
TFFF 271200Z AUTO 08011KT 1600 RA BR FEW008/// BKN014/// BKN020/// ///CB 25/24 Q1011 TEMPO VRB25G45KT 1200 TSRA
TFFF 271130Z AUTO 07013G24KT 1400 R10/1800U +RA BR BKN012/// BKN018/// OVC023/// ///CB 25/24 Q1010 TEMPO 07030G40KT 3000 SHRA BKN018TCU
TFFF 271100Z AUTO 05008KT 360V100 4000 +RA BR FEW008/// BKN014/// BKN020/// ///CB 25/24 Q1010 TEMPO 07030G40KT BKN018TCU
TFFF 271030Z AUTO 06009KT 030V100 8000 RA SCT012/// BKN017/// BKN022/// ///CB 25/24 Q1010 TEMPO 07030G40KT 3000 SHRA
TFFF 271000Z AUTO 08015G26KT 9999 -RA SCT015/// BKN024/// BKN036/// ///CB 25/23 Q1010 TEMPO 07030G40KT 3000 SHRA

Dominica:
TDPD 271300Z 11018G35KT 4000 SHRA BKN012 27/24 Q1014
TDPD 271200Z 10010G24KT 9999 SCT014 SCT036 27/23 Q1013
TDPD 271100Z 10009G31KT 9999 SCT014 SCT034 28/24 Q1013
TDPD 271000Z 10009G19KT 9999 SCT015 SCT034 26/24 Q1013

But those stations are on the Leeward side of the Islands, they are are probably stronger than that on the Windward side of the Islands.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1166345536049504257

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1166345727032877057

[Michele B]

Will td6 have any influence on the path or strength of Dorian?

TD 6 has become really annoying.

Td6 is creating a weakness in the ridge that is allowing Dorian to bypass most of Hispaniola .

indirectly by td6. to 6 gets decoupled and part of it heads sw towards cuba, turning dorian up and around hispaniola running up eastern bahamas and then into fl. per NDG earlier post on models page and i saw the graphic that’s exactly what it shows.

Well, THAT's not good!