ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1181 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:46 pm

GFS initialized correctly, it should have input from recon correct?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1182 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:46 pm

I'm starting to think this ridge may really actually break down... but my gut tells me I should know better.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1183 Postby MrJames » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:46 pm

GFS is further east and stronger through 54hrs so far.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1184 Postby Highteeld » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:47 pm

Much stronger this run of the GFS compared to the last. About 14 mb deeper at hour 54. 0z run nearly misses all of PR
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1185 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:47 pm

What happened to the ridge? lol.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1186 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:48 pm

Highteeld wrote:Much stronger this run of the GFS compared to the last. About 14 mb deeper at hour 54. 0z run nearly misses all of PR

Imagine how strong the Legacy will be now!! :oops:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1187 Postby MrJames » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:48 pm

Legacy GFS is further east as well through 54hrs but similar intensity to the 18z.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1188 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:48 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:What happened to the ridge? lol.


Erin?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1189 Postby Highteeld » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:49 pm

Exploding
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1190 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:49 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1191 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:49 pm

So at 60hr, GFS is approximately at same spot as ICON, in fact a touch west. This is where the differences show i believe; ICON has been going due west, GFS WNW
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1192 Postby HDGator » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:51 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:What happened to the ridge? lol.

GFS continuing the trend of eroding the ridge...
Makes the next Euro more interesting to see if it confirms the trend.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1193 Postby Highteeld » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:51 pm

GFS has borderline cat 2 in 72 hours
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1194 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 pm

0z GFS might end up with Dorian missing all of FL by looking at the run so far, farther right than previous runs so far.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1195 Postby lando » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 pm

AT 72 hrs, Ridge is starting to fill in on GFS. Not due w like the icon but WNW movement is starting
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1196 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 pm

HDGator wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:What happened to the ridge? lol.

GFS continuing the trend of eroding the ridge...
Makes the next Euro more interesting to see if it confirms the trend.

Erin may be another player, the Atlantic never ceases to surprise.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1197 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:53 pm

It’s blocked, there’s no where to go but West.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1198 Postby Highteeld » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:53 pm

Hour 78
Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1199 Postby lando » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:53 pm

At 84 hours the ridge is coming in hot.... doesnt look like it can escape
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1200 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:54 pm

Death ridge in place at 78 hours. Question is how fast does the ridge build back in?
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