EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BARBARA EP022019 07/01/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 59 67 77 91 101 105 97 88 82 69 60
V (KT) LAND 45 51 59 67 77 91 101 105 97 88 82 69 60
V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 60 66 80 95 108 107 97 85 70 57
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 6 8 15 9 2 5 6 11 19 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 0 0 0 -4 -4 -3 -2 2 5 6 9
SHEAR DIR 314 320 350 359 73 64 53 327 260 254 243 245 249
SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.0 26.2
POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 155 155 153 154 152 146 139 135 134 124 126
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 69 70 70 67 61 55 52 49 46 43
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 23 27 29 31 32 30 29 30 26 24
850 MB ENV VOR 12 6 3 8 14 24 34 53 63 58 53 52 57
200 MB DIV 133 116 107 119 142 101 133 71 60 52 67 31 19
700-850 TADV -10 -12 -12 -10 -5 -5 -5 -4 1 4 3 -4 5
LAND (KM) 1290 1388 1432 1486 1551 1687 1765 1854 1922 1987 2051 2166 2194
LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.8 13.5 14.2 14.9 15.7 16.2 16.4
LONG(DEG W) 113.2 114.8 116.3 117.7 119.0 121.3 123.3 125.3 126.8 128.3 130.0 131.9 134.3
STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 13 12 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 12
HEAT CONTENT 22 19 17 20 25 37 48 10 6 6 7 0 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 10. 14. 14. 13. 13. 8. 5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 22. 32. 46. 56. 60. 52. 43. 37. 24. 15.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.9 113.2

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/01/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 7.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.66 9.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.83 9.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 7.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 1.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 8.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 5.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 65% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 21.1% 68.1% 52.1% 39.3% 27.4% 55.3% 65.0% 42.6%
Logistic: 35.6% 74.7% 62.0% 53.6% 19.7% 18.0% 4.8% 5.7%
Bayesian: 41.9% 49.8% 55.9% 31.6% 4.1% 17.3% 9.7% 0.2%
Consensus: 32.9% 64.2% 56.6% 41.5% 17.1% 30.2% 26.5% 16.2%
DTOPS: 23.0% 52.0% 32.0% 19.0% 12.0% 34.0% 34.0% 42.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/01/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

SHIPS and LGEM more bullish

[cycloneye]

Here is the intensity chart for 00z. Indeed Stacey will go up to major if you look at the black line Ofci.

[Kingarabian]

This SSMIS F16 pass appears to show that Barbara has developed a core. It would be a big step in starting the RI process

There's some great banding going on, especially in the southern portions of her circulation, but I think we're still a little ways away from her being ready for RI. Satellite appearance is improving faster than her microwave presentation in my opinion. I still don't see a cyan ring on 37ghz, and the mid levels need work as well. I think there's still some core building to be done, especially in the northern parts of the circulation. When that's done, I think it'll be all systems go for the pressure to drop and winds to spike up.
I think we're still 12-24 hours away from the start of a true RI cycle though.

I think that's due to overshooting cloud tops causing some distortion on some of the passes. Because this F18 SSMIS pass looks pretty good at the mid and lower levels:

[Chris90]

I see what you're saying about the overshooting tops. I think the core may be smaller than what I was anticipating. If that's the case, this could intensify faster than what I'm currently expecting.

[Yellow Evan]

Here is the intensity chart for 00z. Indeed Stacey will go up to major if you look at the black line Ofci.

https://i.imgur.com/lEEaMOd.png

That's interpolated from the the 21z forecast, factoring the 5 knot increase in the intensity since then; not the explicit 3z forecast

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1145512541461909504

[cycloneye]

New peak is 105 kts.

...BARBARA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 114.2W
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES



Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
900 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Barbara has continued to strengthen despite modest northwesterly
mid-level vertical wind shear that has been undercutting a rapidly
improving upper-level outflow pattern. Passive microwave satellite
images over the past few hours indicate that the low-level center is
displaced to the west of the coldest overshooting tops due to the
aforementioned shear conditions. The initial intensity has been
increased to 45 kt based on a consensus Dvorak intensity of T3.0/45
from TAFB and SAB, which is consistent with a late-arriving 1647Z
ASCAT-C overpass that contained wind vectors of 41-42 kt.

The initial motion is an unusually brisk 275/19 kt. A deep-layer
ridge to the north of Barbara is expected to steer the tropical
cyclone westward to west-northwestward for the next 48-72 hours,
accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed. By 96 hours, a
shortwave trough is forecast to weaken the ridge, allowing Barbara
to turn more toward the northwest and gain some latitude. By day 5,
however, the ridge is forecast to build back in behind the exiting
trough, which should force the cyclone back on a west-northwesterly
to westerly track. The latest track guidance continues to be tightly
clustered with the HWRF remaining on the north side of the envelope
and the ECMWF on the south side. The new NHC track forecast is
similar to but a little south of the previous advisory track, and
lies close to a blend of the TVCE, HCCA, and FSSE consensus models.

The global models continue to forecast the deep-layer and mid-level
vertical wind shear to steadily decrease from the current 15 kt to
near 5 kt by 48-72 hours. The low shear conditions, along with SSTs
of 28-29 deg C, should allow for at least steady strengthening for
the next 48 h or so, followed by more significant strengthening in
the 48-72 h time period. After that time, cooler water temperatures
beneath the cyclone coupled with the strong inner-core wind field
are expected to result in significant cold upwelling, which should
induce steady weakening on days 4-5. Rapid intensification in the
24-72 h time frame is a distinct possibility, which would result in
Barbara becoming a stronger major hurricane than currently forecast.
The new official intensity forecast is a little more robust than the
previous advisory, and follows a blend of the HCCA, ICON, and FSSE
intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 11.0N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 11.5N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 11.9N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 12.3N 121.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 12.8N 123.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 14.0N 127.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 15.7N 130.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 16.8N 135.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Important sentence.

Rapid intensification in the
24-72 h time frame is a distinct possibility, which would result in
Barbara becoming a stronger major hurricane than currently forecast.

[Kingarabian]

I think what I was doing wrong in regards to reading the MW scans was using SAB or NHC fixes that were older than the time the MW scans ocurred and not interoplating properly. Does look like the LLC is on the edge of the CDO so it still has work to do.

That being said, it should still have no problem reaching high end Cat.4 strength.

[Chris90]

I think what I was doing wrong in regards to reading the MW scans was using SAB or NHC fixes that were older than the time the MW scans ocurred and not interoplating properly. Does look like the LLC is on the edge of the CDO so it still has work to do.

That being said, it should still have no problem reaching high end Cat.4 strength.

Ahh, you tricked me . I thought I was reading the microwave passes wrong after your reply, lol. Regardless, I think we'll all be watching a tropical bomb tomorrow night. Barbara just needs to spend the next 12-24 hours putting the finishing touches on a core that will allow her to maximize her potential.

[dexterlabio]

Somehow relieved that we can still get to see more cyclone treats in the Pacific this year, with EPAC expected to spawn more trackworthy systems after Barbara. WPAC has been dud since February and the EPAC season this year kinda picked up late so I was thinking maybe the Pacific could be dead.

Although I see the Hawaiian islands under threat once again, I can still recall those years when EPAC storms running west away from MX have virtually no landfall likelihood. .then 2014 came to show us another possibility of how Hawaii can still be affected by an EPAC cane.

[Astromanía]

Is Barbara trying to develop an eye?

Also, look how cold the top clouds are!!!

This will be something really big.
Is there a chance EPAC+CPAC generates higher ACE than WPAC this year?

[Kingarabian]

i don't know what to think anymore.

[Ntxw]

Raw T #s looking to shoot up pretty quick here soon. Classic WPAC Typhoon-like congeal going.

[NotSparta]

Massive expansion of the CDO upshear. Sure sign that shear is backing off, and that Barbara has separated from the ITCZ and is sustaining itself. Together, this means that Barbara should strengthen rather rapidly soon

[Chris90]

Well, it appears I may have been very wrong when I said 12-24 hours until the RI cycle begins. Barbara blew up over a couple of hours. I'm looking forward to the next good microwave pass. Wouldn't be surprised if the banding has wrapped all the way around to form an eye. Then again, maybe it still won't be there, but I'm guessing there will be a mid-level eye at the least.

[HurricaneRyan]

Barbie is prepping for her makeover I see. Major intensification voming up.

[Kingarabian]

SAB keeps it at T3.0.

ADT CI is up to T3.5 while the raw Ts up to 4.5.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro run is its weakest so far: