ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Checking the latest CIMSS Vort graphics:
1) 850mb and 700mb vorts stacked.
2) 500mb slightly to the west which in part is the tail end of a UL PV anomaly that is seen on the 200mb vort graphic.
3) 200mb shows a weak elongated vort across the panhandle. It was stronger earlier and is now rapidly decaying.

Big tower firing off in the GOM just SE of Mobile Bay.
Indicates very unstable air in the GOM.
CAPE running 4000 to 4500 in this area.

Very likely convection will fire off once the LL vort gets over water.
This should likely rapidly stack the vorts.

[GCANE]

Big Theta-E Ridge in the GOM.
Anything that tracks into that is nearly a certain chance for RI.

[Aric Dunn]

With convection on the increase and the increasing vorticity around the big bend area things are progressing per the euro and especially ICON. It has handled the short term location and structure of the vort max and surface feature the best over the last couple days. It is showing a closed wind field offshore in 9 to 12 hours which is plausible given current set up.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located over southwestern Georgia is
producing disorganized showers. This disturbance is expected to
move southward or southwestward during the next day or so, and a
broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Once the disturbance is over water,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf
of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone
develops, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall
along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later
this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the Gulf Coast from
the Upper Texas coast to the western Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Nimbus]

Big thunderstorms and convection south of Pensacola and Mobile bay are moistening up the area.
Any closed circulation over the gulf should occur near the area with the lowest shear as the moisture envelope expands westward. Currently better moisture values off Tampa however there is quite a lot of shear there and further north near the where the NHC has the center position?

[KatDaddy]

A few thunderstorms across the NE GOM this morning as Invest 92L slowly drifts SW toward the coast. Lots of unknowns continue this morning and still awaiting where the low pressure center will form across the NE GOM.

From the Houston-Galveston NWS morning AFD:

These is the best cast and worst case scenarios for SE Texas as of this moment:

Best Case: If the low propagates into the LA/MS coast, then the bulk of the storm`s rainfall activity and strongest wind field would remain outside of SE Texas. Thus, a warmer and drier trend would be expected. Main impacts with this scenario would be possible high heat index values (maybe reaching Heat Advisory criteria) along with some convective activity over the local area.

Worst Case: If the low propagates more to the west and into the vicinity of the TX/LA coast, then the bulk of the storm`s rainfall activity and strongest wind field would move in or near SE Texas, or at least portions of it. Thus, a wetter forecast pattern would be expected over our local area. However, due to the uncertainty of the storm`s intensity, specific wind and rainfall values are unknown at this time.

The General Message: There are still too many uncertainties in regards of the development and track of the system. Regardless of development, now is the time to verify your hurricane preparedness plan with your family and neighbors. Continue to monitor your local NWS and NHC forecasts for the latest information regarding
this system.

[sphelps8681]

I really thought the Euro was on to this storm with back to back runs showing the same landfall and other models with the same outcome. Time will tell and maybe we will see a flip back to the west.

[Aric Dunn]

Circ is approaching coast. Should get pulled/reformed oit over water later today with second convective burst.

http://hint.fm/wind/

[NDG]

I would had thought that many people in SE TX would had been happy that the Euro shifted east this morning.
Still a very complex situation here, the latest GFS went back to its idea of the low level vorticity not going underneath the mid level circulation. Today we should get a better idea of what model has been right so far. The Euro keeps persistent that an h85 vorticity will be noticeable by this evening SW of Cedar Key while the GFS keeps showing to be a bit further north and elongated.

[sphelps8681]

I would had thought that many people in SE TX would had been happy that the Euro shifted east this morning.
Still a very complex situation here, the latest GFS went back to its idea of the low level vorticity not going underneath the mid level circulation. Today we should get a better idea of what model has been right so far. The Euro keeps persistent that an h85 vorticity will be noticeable by this evening SW of Cedar Key while the GFS keeps showing to be a bit further north and elongated.

Don't get me wrong yes it is better news that it shifted east. What I meant was this won't probably be the last time this potential system will flip. Still preparing but depending on where it goes they are different levels of preparedness. Still keeping my a close eye on things.

[NDG]

I would had thought that many people in SE TX would had been happy that the Euro shifted east this morning.
Still a very complex situation here, the latest GFS went back to its idea of the low level vorticity not going underneath the mid level circulation. Today we should get a better idea of what model has been right so far. The Euro keeps persistent that an h85 vorticity will be noticeable by this evening SW of Cedar Key while the GFS keeps showing to be a bit further north and elongated.

Don't get me wrong yes it is better news that it shifted east. What I meant was this won't probably be the last time this potential system will flip. Still preparing but depending on where it goes they are different levels of preparedness. Still keeping my a close eye on things.

Yes, it can definitely still change, by no means the Euro is that good beyond 72 hrs.
BTW, on yesterday's 12z run I counted at least around 25 Euro ensemble members that showed a direct TX landfall, now they are down to only 12 or so.

[SoupBone]

I would had thought that many people in SE TX would had been happy that the Euro shifted east this morning.
Still a very complex situation here, the latest GFS went back to its idea of the low level vorticity not going underneath the mid level circulation. Today we should get a better idea of what model has been right so far. The Euro keeps persistent that an h85 vorticity will be noticeable by this evening SW of Cedar Key while the GFS keeps showing to be a bit further north and elongated.

I definitely am, but as you know me you also know that I have a lot of friends and family still in Louisiana. I'm also intrested to see if these models continue to do the windshield wipers flip flop and go back-and-forth so that the next run will shift back into South East Texas.

[GCANE]

Looks like about half of the vort is over water.
Very likely a tower fired off at 29N 86W.
More convection is starting to pop up east of that.
Looks like its on its way.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at radar out of Tallahassee. The velocities and storm motion with surface obs pointing a circ/vort possibly developing.. of course broad right now... south of Tallahassee right on the coast.

[GCANE]

20 knot infeed into that tower.

[Aric Dunn]

Nhc moved it up to late wed or thurs for development now

[GCANE]

Latest analysis

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure system located over the eastern Florida
Panhandle is producing disorganized shower activity. The low is
forecast to move southward to southwestward and emerge over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico later today. Once the system is over
water, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
tropical cyclone formation, and a tropical depression is likely to
develop by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether
or not a tropical cyclone forms, this system has the potential to
produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern
U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests
along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[p1nheadlarry]

Big Theta-E Ridge in the GOM.
Anything that tracks into that is nearly a certain chance for RI.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/1967/kfMqK3.gif

It being high over the continent is important, too. Low theta e = dry air.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1148563517852803075