ATL: BARRY - Models

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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#121 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:59 pm

00z GFS hours 48-96:
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Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#122 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:00 pm

993 mbs at 108 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#123 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:01 pm

GFS caves to ECMWF. Some agreement now from major models. I believe intensity may be off some but track may be good.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#124 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:993 mbs at 108 hours.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#125 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:03 pm

Steve wrote:Nam 00z still likes a closer to the coast solution through 57 hours.



Love my NAM :lol: and my NAVGEM :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#126 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:04 pm

For some reason it weakens it back up to 999mb at landfall.

Edit: actually 1001mb at landfall near Galveston.
Last edited by NDG on Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#127 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:04 pm

cycloneye wrote:993 mbs at 108 hours.
Lowest pressure.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#128 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:04 pm

What a strange run by the GFS. All sorts of different movements and fluctuations in intensity. However, it looks like the GFS is joining the party, finally.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#129 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:05 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:GFS caves to ECMWF. Some agreement now from major models. I believe intensity may be off some but track may be good.


When does the Euro not trump the GFS old or new ... 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#130 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:05 pm

00z GFS hours 96-120:
Image

Something weird happens at hour 108
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#131 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:08 pm

00z GFS hours 120-144:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#132 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:13 pm

Kingarabian wrote:00z GFS hours 96-120:
]https://i.imgur.com/auE94Ji.gif

Something weird happens at hour 108


What it is?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#133 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:17 pm

Canadian is initialized, but apparently we don’t get hurricane models this cycle
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#134 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:00z GFS hours 96-120:
]https://i.imgur.com/auE94Ji.gif

Something weird happens at hour 108


What it is?[quote]
Look at how as its intensifying the center erratically jumps east and the strengthening process stops prematurely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#135 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:22 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:00z GFS hours 96-120:
]https://i.imgur.com/auE94Ji.gif

Something weird happens at hour 108


What it is?
Look at how as its intensifying the center erratically jumps east and the strengthening process stops prematurely.


Yeah,it jumps a lot not only at that time but when it starts.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#136 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:47 pm

Lmao at Canadian rainfall through 120. 15k homes or more in New Orleans flood again. Plus Gulfport and Biloxi. Plus Mobile. I could buy some 5-7”+ isolated, but the bulk of that kind of rain should be west of here.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=90
Last edited by Steve on Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#137 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:47 pm

Cmc lol that model is always so bad lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#138 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:50 pm

Anyone have the UKMET output?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#139 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:52 pm

MississippiWx wrote:Anyone have the UKMET output?



I’m sure it’s more west than last run and making its way to the euro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#140 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:55 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Cmc lol that model is always so bad lol



It will blindly catch that nut once in a while, and it’s good for anomalies on the CONUS sometimes. But mostly it’s comedy and entertainment in the tropics.
Last edited by Steve on Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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