ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Moderate mid-level dry air, 15 knt shear.
Massive TPW pool.
Need to wait until about 50W before it does anything.
If it does, it could be a killer.

Statements like these are unnecessary when we don’t even have a developing system. The world could end tomorrow, too.

Killer as in kill off the vorticity...

[GCANE]

CCKW looks favorable now, but forecast to go down hill quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/0MaLdSF.png

https://i.imgur.com/PqiNeBI.png

Could you give me a laymen's explanation of what these last 4 images mean. I haven't seen these before.
Thks.

CCKW = Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves.
They are waves in the upper troposphere that circulate along the equator from west to east.
When they coincide with convection and low-level vorts, chances are higher for TC genesis.

[GCANE]

Moderate mid-level dry air, 15 knt shear.
Massive TPW pool.
Need to wait until about 50W before it does anything.
If it does, it could be a killer.

Statements like these are unnecessary when we don’t even have a developing system. The world could end tomorrow, too.

Killer as in kill off the vorticity...

The high level off TPW associated with this indicates a potential for an intense TC to develop.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah the reduced development chances is weird. No major change in midel support.

[CyclonicFury]

 https://twitter.com/CyclonicFury/status/1170353095534157825

[Hurricaneman]

Yeah the reduced development chances is weird. No major change in midel support.

It’s because the models don’t really develop this but do develop the wave behind 94L

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah the reduced development chances is weird. No major change in midel support.

It’s because the models don’t really develop this but do develop the wave behind 94L

that is a new solution. just yesterday there as no merging of the two systems. same thing happened with DOrian and many others except it didn't occur.
Also this system is not attached to the ITCZ which leads me to believe that the models showing the merging of this and the other wave behind it are unlikely. but will stay separate

[hipshot]

CCKW looks favorable now, but forecast to go down hill quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/0MaLdSF.png

https://i.imgur.com/PqiNeBI.png

Could you give me a laymen's explanation of what these last 4 images mean. I haven't seen these before.
Thks.

CCKW = Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves.
They are waves in the upper troposphere that circulate along the equator from west to east.
When they coincide with convection and low-level vorts, chances are higher for TC genesis.

Thanks, I'll do a little research now that I know what this is.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS has this system getting absorbed by the wave behind 94l which is entirely possible

[SFLcane]

12Z GFS has this system getting absorbed by the wave behind 94l which is entirely possible

Indeed entirely possible also looks like what ever develops will have a difficult making time making it far west before finding an escape route north.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS has this system getting absorbed by the wave behind 94l which is entirely possible

Indeed entirely possible also looks like what ever develops will have a difficult making time making it far west before finding an escape route north.

So far out to know if that escape route would be there. The recurve is out beyond 250 hours. The interaction with 94l and the wave coming off Africa looks to complicate things so who knows what will even happen with that let alone steering.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form by the
middle of next week while the system moves westward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[galaxy401]

NHC has been lowering the chances. It seems the lack of MJO is becoming evident.

[AnnularCane]

I'm guessing they do expect development somewhere in the MDR, but just not right away?

[GCANE]

A few overshooting tops / towers
Holding its own

[MetroMike]

I'm guessing they do expect development somewhere in the MDR, but just not right away?

The NHC said that yesterday that it could form into something by Tuesday/ Wednesday, so I was confused as to why it was at 70% in the 1st place.

[DioBrando]

Now down to 10/40

What's actually happening with this invest?

[Kazmit]

Now down to 10/40

What's actually happening with this invest?

It went all the way to 80%, then down to 50%, then back up to 70%, and now back down again to 40%.

[DioBrando]

Now down to 10/40

What's actually happening with this invest?

It went all the way to 80%, then down to 50%, then back up to 70%, and now back down again to 40%.

I know but I'm talking about why chances arare dropping when there is no dry air, no wind shear, bathwater ssts....

[abajan]

Now down to 10/40

What's actually happening with this invest?

It went all the way to 80%, then down to 50%, then back up to 70%, and now back down again to 40%.

I know but I'm talking about why chances arare dropping when there is no dry air, no wind shear, bathwater ssts....

I don't know. But I bet it'll be back up to 10/50 in the next TWO.