WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 33
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:
Contact 1900hurricane

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#121 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 05, 2019 10:08 pm

Hayabusa wrote:
Nancy Smar wrote:
20W TWENTY 191006 0000 15.1N 156.1E WPAC 40 993

Revised to 45
20W HAGIBIS 191006 0000 14.9N 155.8E WPAC 45 997

JTWC also brought the position south some. That's a better position, but I still think it's even a little further south than that.
1 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Top
User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2097
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#122 Postby Highteeld » Sat Oct 05, 2019 10:50 pm

GFS now onboard with Hagibis being near cat 4 intensity through the Marianas Islands.

Image
0 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Top
User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 33
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:
Contact 1900hurricane

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#123 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 05, 2019 10:56 pm

Easy to find the center now.

Image
1 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Top
User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3780
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#124 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 05, 2019 11:01 pm

Image

Can it go even deeper?
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.10.2019

TROPICAL STORM HAGIBIS ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 155.8E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2019 0 14.8N 155.8E 1000 34
1200UTC 06.10.2019 12 14.7N 152.8E 990 48
0000UTC 07.10.2019 24 15.3N 149.5E 979 56
1200UTC 07.10.2019 36 16.2N 146.5E 966 67
0000UTC 08.10.2019 48 17.4N 143.4E 945 82
1200UTC 08.10.2019 60 18.5N 141.1E 927 94
0000UTC 09.10.2019 72 19.7N 139.5E 904 108
1200UTC 09.10.2019 84 21.2N 138.6E 894 107
0000UTC 10.10.2019 96 22.6N 137.6E 886 106
1200UTC 10.10.2019 108 23.8N 136.5E 891 99
0000UTC 11.10.2019 120 24.9N 134.8E 895 103
1200UTC 11.10.2019 132 26.4N 133.1E 883 106
0000UTC 12.10.2019 144 28.1N 131.3E 893 105
1 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Top
User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2097
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#125 Postby Highteeld » Sat Oct 05, 2019 11:07 pm

Hayabusa wrote:https://i.imgur.com/uhhMsCu.png

Can it go even deeper?
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.10.2019

TROPICAL STORM HAGIBIS ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 155.8E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2019 0 14.8N 155.8E 1000 34
1200UTC 06.10.2019 12 14.7N 152.8E 990 48
0000UTC 07.10.2019 24 15.3N 149.5E 979 56
1200UTC 07.10.2019 36 16.2N 146.5E 966 67
0000UTC 08.10.2019 48 17.4N 143.4E 945 82
1200UTC 08.10.2019 60 18.5N 141.1E 927 94
0000UTC 09.10.2019 72 19.7N 139.5E 904 108
1200UTC 09.10.2019 84 21.2N 138.6E 894 107
0000UTC 10.10.2019 96 22.6N 137.6E 886 106
1200UTC 10.10.2019 108 23.8N 136.5E 891 99
0000UTC 11.10.2019 120 24.9N 134.8E 895 103
1200UTC 11.10.2019 132 26.4N 133.1E 883 106
0000UTC 12.10.2019 144 28.1N 131.3E 893 105

where do you get the UKmet text product anyways?
0 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Top
User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3780
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#126 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 05, 2019 11:15 pm

Highteeld wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:https://i.imgur.com/uhhMsCu.png

Can it go even deeper?
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.10.2019

TROPICAL STORM HAGIBIS ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 155.8E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2019 0 14.8N 155.8E 1000 34
1200UTC 06.10.2019 12 14.7N 152.8E 990 48
0000UTC 07.10.2019 24 15.3N 149.5E 979 56
1200UTC 07.10.2019 36 16.2N 146.5E 966 67
0000UTC 08.10.2019 48 17.4N 143.4E 945 82
1200UTC 08.10.2019 60 18.5N 141.1E 927 94
0000UTC 09.10.2019 72 19.7N 139.5E 904 108
1200UTC 09.10.2019 84 21.2N 138.6E 894 107
0000UTC 10.10.2019 96 22.6N 137.6E 886 106
1200UTC 10.10.2019 108 23.8N 136.5E 891 99
0000UTC 11.10.2019 120 24.9N 134.8E 895 103
1200UTC 11.10.2019 132 26.4N 133.1E 883 106
0000UTC 12.10.2019 144 28.1N 131.3E 893 105

where do you get the UKmet text product anyways?


I get it from here, then I plot it, really fun. :D
3 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Top
User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2400
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:
Contact doomhaMwx

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#127 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Oct 05, 2019 11:23 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Easy to find the center now.

https://i.imgur.com/VXiRzFi.png

And farther south than the JTWC position just like you mentioned (even JMA has it centered at 15N in their 00Z and 03Z advisories). It's actually even more south than Tinian and Saipan's latitude. Forecasts will probably shift closer to the main islands.

Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.
Top
User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 33
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:
Contact 1900hurricane

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#128 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 06, 2019 12:36 am

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1180718253741629440


0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Top
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#129 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 06, 2019 12:43 am

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Top
User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 33
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:
Contact 1900hurricane

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#130 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 06, 2019 12:44 am

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1180720245146865665


0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Top
Tailspin

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#131 Postby Tailspin » Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:01 am

FXXT01 ADRM 060300

IDY26500



Bureau of Meteorology, Darwin RSMC



ACCESS_TC TC tracking for model run: 20191006 0000 UTC



Cyc Name Date Time Lat Long C.Pres Max Wind(kts)



HAGIBIS 20191006 0000 15.0 156.4 999.7 35.1

HAGIBIS 20191006 0600 15.1 155.4 995.8 38.3

HAGIBIS 20191006 1200 16.0 154.1 994.7 45.9

HAGIBIS 20191006 1800 16.1 151.7 989.0 49.2

HAGIBIS 20191007 0000 16.4 149.9 987.0 54.1

HAGIBIS 20191007 0600 16.7 148.2 983.3 55.4

HAGIBIS 20191007 1200 17.0 146.5 982.9 60.3

HAGIBIS 20191007 1800 17.4 144.9 977.6 63.6

HAGIBIS 20191008 0000 17.8 143.4 977.0 67.6

HAGIBIS 20191008 0600 18.4 141.9 972.3 69.4

HAGIBIS 20191008 1200 18.6 140.6 970.7 67.3

HAGIBIS 20191008 1800 19.0 139.5 966.8 64.7

HAGIBIS 20191009 0000 19.4 138.6 968.4 65.3







Note: wind speed is max wind at 10m in kts



This information and associated graphic is available at :
https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/d/o/ADRM/Alph ... 417_57.txt



Atm Bom's TC intensty forecast is looking lame. Not sure why.


EGRR RJTD RKSL
https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/d/o/EGRR/Alph ... 347_74.txt

jma
https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/d/o/RJTD/Alph ... 032_35.txt
https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/d/o/RJTD/Alph ... 945_20.txt


https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/d/o/RKSL/Alph ... 717_75.txt


https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/d/o/RKSL/Alph ... 717_75.txt
KMA
Last edited by Tailspin on Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 33
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:
Contact 1900hurricane

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#132 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:31 am

How about off-white eye embedded in dark grey instead? Not that I would actually go with that DT (4.5) due to constraints right now, but you might need to start thinking about breaking constraints in the future if the development rate continues. Think I'd go 55 kt (CI 3.5) for 06Z with the potential to adjust upwards a little if needed.

TPPN10 PGTW 060606

A. TROPICAL STORM 20W (HAGIBIS)

B. 06/0530Z

C. 14.22N

D. 154.11E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT YIELD A 3.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/0222Z 14.08N 154.82E ATMS
06/0312Z 14.23N 154.90E MMHS


RICHARDSON


Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Top
User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3780
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#133 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:49 am

Adjusted a little south
20W HAGIBIS 191006 0600 14.2N 154.1E WPAC 50 996
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Top
User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3780
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#134 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:50 am

TS 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 6 October 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 6 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°40' (14.7°)
E154°20' (154.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 390 km (210 NM)
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Top
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#135 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 06, 2019 2:06 am

Hayabusa wrote:Adjusted a little south
20W HAGIBIS 191006 0600 14.2N 154.1E WPAC 50 996


Barring anymore changes, that's almost a full 1 degree latitude change today. Might be significant for the main islands.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Top
Tailspin

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#136 Postby Tailspin » Sun Oct 06, 2019 2:12 am

Image
I would go JMA intensty atm with this. Will benefit overnight foreshore but atm it dont look a well organised tc
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#137 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 06, 2019 2:27 am

TROPICAL STORM WATCH issued for Guam.

TYPHOON WARNING upgraded for Saipan, Tinian, Alamagan, and Pagan.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Top
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#138 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 06, 2019 6:08 am

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR HAGIBIS (20W) 2019
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10060749
SATCON: MSLP = 989 hPa MSW = 66 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 64.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 71 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 195 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 4.1 knots Source: MW
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Top
User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#139 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:02 am

20W HAGIBIS 191006 1200 14.5N 152.3E WPAC 55 992
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2097
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Tropical Storm

#140 Postby Highteeld » Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:15 am

Typhoon classification just around the corner (this storm is developing stupid fast); might be one already if we had recon.

Image
0 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests