WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

Strong Delta:
17.42 -77.06

Delta up to 95.07*C

2019NOV05 023000 6.9 919.5 137.4 6.9 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.31 -76.97 EYE 20 IR 85.1 19.34 -151.65 ARCHER HIM-8 25.9

Let's see if it can reach a difference of 100 to 105 this evening.

[Highteeld]

Strong Delta:
17.42 -77.06

Delta up to 95.07*C

2019NOV05 023000 6.9 919.5 137.4 6.9 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.31 -76.97 EYE 20 IR 85.1 19.34 -151.65 ARCHER HIM-8 25.9

Let's see if it can reach a difference of 100 to 105 this evening.

hasn't happened yet this year; happened twice last year with Kong-Rey and Yutu

[Highteeld]

TPPN11 PGTW 050335

A. TYPHOON 24W (HALONG)

B. 05/0300Z

C. 19.30N

D. 151.54E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF
7.0 MET 6.5 PT 7.0 DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/0031Z 19.12N 151.80E GPMI


STIGSSON

[aspen]

Halong has finally hit T#7.0. Let’s see if the JTWC will actually upgrade it accordingly for the next update, unlike what happened with Bualoi and Kyarr.

[mrbagyo]

JMA @ 03z

Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)

[Hayabusa]

TY 1923 (Halong)
Issued at 03:50 UTC, 5 November 2019

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 5 November>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N19°20' (19.3°)
E151°40' (151.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 6 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N20°55' (20.9°)
E150°40' (150.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 7 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N22°50' (22.8°)
E151°20' (151.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 8 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°00' (27.0°)
E154°10' (154.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 410 km (220 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 9 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N31°00' (31.0°)
E161°55' (161.9°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 10 November>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N33°40' (33.7°)
E171°40' (171.7°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 40 km/h (22 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 650 km (350 NM)

[mrbagyo]

[Highteeld]

Eastern ring showing signs of cooling as the sun angle gets weaker -- T 7.5 in 3-4 hours is possible

[Highteeld]

Eastern ring showing signs of cooling as the sun angle gets weaker -- T 7.5 in 3-4 hours is possible

just eyeballing the floater, i'd expect delta to increase the next measurement by a couple degrees

[Highteeld]

Pretty sure violent winds are mixing down the surface at this point lol

[Highteeld]

Still intensifying:

[Highteeld]

boom. probably at 150 knots right now
18.47 -77.82 --->96.29*C

[Highteeld]

boom. probably at 150 knots right now
18.47 -77.82 --->96.29*C

Next delta may rival Hagibis/98.77*C

[Highteeld]

Delta at 97.23*C and still increasing.

2019NOV05 051000 7.1 913.9 143.0 7.1 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.97 -78.26 EYE 21 IR 85.1 19.61 -151.38 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0

[Highteeld]

Delta up to 98.64*C; getting way up there. 100*C Delta probably roughly equals 155-165 knots.

2019NOV05 054000 7.1 913.9 143.0 7.1 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.24 -78.40 EYE 23 IR 85.1 19.65 -151.35 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0

[Highteeld]

boom. probably at 150 knots right now
18.47 -77.82 --->96.29*C

Next delta may rival Hagibis/98.77*C

There goes Hagibis: 98.84*C -- strongest delta of the year.

2019NOV05 061000 7.2 910.9 146.0 7.2 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.37 -78.47 EYE 23 IR 85.1 19.67 -151.30 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0

[mrbagyo]

TY 1923 (Halong)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 5 November 2019
<Analysis at 06 UTC, 5 November>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N19°35' (19.6°)
E151°25' (151.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 930 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 November>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N21°20' (21.3°)
E150°50' (150.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 920 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

[Hayabusa]

Halong's CI is at least 145 knots according to ADT, Hagibis only reached a CI of 7.0

[Hayabusa]

24W HALONG 191105 0600 19.6N 151.3E WPAC 130 923

[Hayabusa]

Nighttime is coming we'll see if it can match or even beat Hagibis' raw T7.8 peak, if it does Halong would at least reach an ADT CI of 7.5.