ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

I'm not sure the environment in the Bahamas is as ideal as it could be otherwise more models would call for significant strengthening in that area. It seems that the track may be getting pretty well sorted out however as the NHC is actually pretty good with that 3-5 days out.

And intensity will be influenced by very warm SSTs.

[chris_fit]

Wow that's a mess. So pretty on Sat. So much bark, so little bite.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/Jackson_Dill/status/1166346777584209921

[Aric Dunn]

Recon needs to go back north to where that notch was just offshore martinique.

Definitely reforming up there.

[Michele B]

Here in NE FLA not liking some of the models showning East Coast Florida as possible landfall being moved slowly northwards. Still too early to say for sure but SE FLA still most likely if Dorian makes it past the Caribbean Islands right. Correct if wrong.

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the models will likely continue to windshield wipe it for a few days.

Consensus SEEMS settled on the Treasure Coast.

[Evil Jeremy]

Current disorganization aside, Dorian has all the signs of being a fighter. Convection continues to pop at a steady rate, even if it's getting quickly displaced. Really, Florida's in a waiting game for another day until what the interaction with Hispaniola will be. There won't be clarity regarding potential Florida impacts until around this time tomorrow, but it's irresponsible to wait until this is in the Bahamas to start preparing. Can't take any chances with 48+ hours in the Gulf Stream.

Here in NE FLA not liking some of the models showning East Coast Florida as possible landfall being moved slowly northwards. Still too early to say for sure but SE FLA still most likely if Dorian makes it past the Caribbean Islands right. Correct if wrong.

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the models will likely continue to windshield wipe it for a few days.

Consensus SEEMS settled on the Treasure Coast.

Consensus seemed settled on SEFL yesterday. Might seem settled on Jax tomorrow morning. Or back south. At this point, the entire Florida east coast needs to be watching.

[Frank2]

This is definityely NOT an Irma or Maria - both were intense hurricanes at this point in their track: http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics ... t-guad.gif

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/cfhc/status/1166349980761829376

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is definityely NOT an Irma or Maria - both were intense hurricanes at this point in their track: http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics ... t-guad.gif

we know. but over 2 days in warm waters, low shear, and moist air would potentially allow this storm to do what erika couldn’t.

[WeatherEmperor]

 https://twitter.com/cfhc/status/1166349980761829376

This appears to be in line with the more northern initial motion shown by the Ukmet the last couple days. It also has Dorian hitting south florida instead of central florida


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[Evil Jeremy]

This is definityely NOT a Irma or Maria - both were intense hurricanes at this point in their track: http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics ... t-guad.gif

I would say the level of "hype" (if there is any, I haven't witnessed it yet in Broward) at the moment is fitting relative to Dorian's intensity and forecast compared to Irma at the comparable point in time. 5 days out from Irma (at that time it was a Cat 4 and forecast to be a Cat 4 for Florida) a full State of Emergency was in effect and evacuations were being planned.

I do expect activity to pick up tonight, but nothing substantial until Dorian either becomes a Hurricane or is forecast to be a Hurricane on approach to Florida. Neither of those I expect to happen today.

[SouthDadeFish]

I’m not so sure this is a “reformation” in the canonical sense as it is an organization of the broader low-level vortex. I agree the center seems to be tightening up west of Martinique. Recent radar returns suggest improved banding and indicating the storm is organizing.

I think Dorian read about me bad-mouthing it’s structure and is trying to show me up. We’ll see what it can do once the shear starts to increase tomorrow...

[Evil Jeremy]

This appears to be in line with the more northern initial motion shown by the Ukmet the last couple days. It also has Dorian hitting south florida instead of central florida

I said it a couple days ago, and I maintain my stance: I'm looking at UKMET primarily over these next couple of days. It was (I believe) the only model that consistently forecasted Dorian passing Hispanola to the East and North, while everyone else was plowing Dorian into the mountains. Now, UKMET has continued to tick north gradually, going from the FL straits up through Broward. It may continue to gradually bounce North if a consensus builds around Central Florida. Or, other models may sink back down to the UKMET. Still at least 24 hours away from that kind of clarity.

Still, my eyes are on UKMET.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This appears to be in line with the more northern initial motion shown by the Ukmet the last couple days. It also has Dorian hitting south florida instead of central florida

I said it a couple days ago, and I maintain my stance: I'm looking at UKMET primarily over these next couple of days. It was (I believe) the only model that consistently forecasted Dorian passing Hispanola to the East and North, while everyone else was plowing Dorian into the mountains. Now, UKMET has continued to tick north gradually, going from the FL straits up through Broward. It may continue to gradually bounce North if a consensus builds around Central Florida. Or, other models may sink back down to the UKMET. Still at least 24 hours away from that kind of clarity.

Still, my eyes are on UKMET.

Euro ensembles show shouth florida.

[Aric Dunn]

I’m not so sure this is a “reformation” in the canonical sense as it is an organization of the broader low-level vortex. I agree the center seems to be tightening up west of Martinique. Recent radar returns suggest improved banding and indicating the storm is organizing.

I think Dorian read about me bad-mouthing it’s structure and is trying to show me up. We’ll see what it can do once the shear starts to increase tomorrow...

Correct its not a reforming in the normal sense. But rather from being disrupted by the various peaks as discussed esrlier.

Localized drops in pressure caused the center to "morph" rather than an actual reform. Its not a coincidence that it is west of martinique either.

[Siker]

I’m not so sure this is a “reformation” in the canonical sense as it is an organization of the broader low-level vortex. I agree the center seems to be tightening up west of Martinique. Recent radar returns suggest improved banding and indicating the storm is organizing.

I think Dorian read about me bad-mouthing it’s structure and is trying to show me up. We’ll see what it can do once the shear starts to increase tomorrow...

New small cold cloud cluster above that area west of Martinique:

[Weatherboy1]

If the LLC and MLC stack and/or center re-organizes under deepest convection … which has been persisting for almost a day now despite intrusion/mixing of dry mid-level air … no reason Dorian couldn't strengthen into a hurricane before too long. And of course, any jobs/deviations north lessen chance of a significant battle with Hispanola. Very close eye on this system needed IMO

[tropicwatch]

Correct its not a reforming in the normal sense. But rather from being disrupted by the various peaks as discussed esrlier.

Localized drops in pressure caused the center to "morph" rather than an actual reform. Its not a coincidence that it is west of martinique either.

Aric, according to the map I am looking at the HH has the center west of St. Lucia the island just south of Martinique.

[caneman]

This is definityely NOT an Irma or Maria - both were intense hurricanes at this point in their track: http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics ... t-guad.gif

Not sure what the point is... it could end up being just as intense at landfall.

[tolakram]

This is definityely NOT an Irma or Maria - both were intense hurricanes at this point in their track: http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics ... t-guad.gif

I think it's important not to hype but for everyone to complete any preparedness that was put off and then watch and see what happens. Fingers crossed that the overall poor conditions continue and this hits Florida as nothing more than a Tropical Storm, or less.