ATL: DORIAN - Models
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stormhunter7
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
GFS will have to turn more west after 86hrs... Blocking to north
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
How is the 0z Ukmet run showing so far?
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
HR 90, due west.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
With the GFS tending to under do ridging, and having a solid ridge in place, i dont think that bodes well for the Eastern US
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stormhunter7
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Definitely deepening at 96hrs and blocked to north
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GeneratorPower
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Between 90hrs and 96 hrs, ridge shows it may be starting to break down a little.... Will it be enough?
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
It’s punching through the ridge, okay...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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GeneratorPower
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
lando wrote:Between 90hrs and 96 hrs, ridge shows it may be starting to break down a little.... Will it be enough?
That’s probably diurnal (day/night) variation.
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stormhunter7
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
The vort in the GOM that comes from SE US across Florida is further south this run so far too.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
The 5 day 500mb GFS verification has been quite good the last few days. The Euro, however, has had a nasty habit of over doing ridges.
Euro: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/ecmw ... op500.html
GFS: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/gfs0012loop500.html
I don't think anything solid can be determined with these verifications but something to keep in mind.
Euro: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/ecmw ... op500.html
GFS: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/gfs0012loop500.html
I don't think anything solid can be determined with these verifications but something to keep in mind.
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M a r k
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stormhunter7
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Haven't see a due west yet. Still more of a slow wnw toward NE Florida?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
I wouldn't lay money on the GFS's track, but it's probably depicted weaker than you'd think it would be at 102 hours. Icon ends up hitting Harrison/Jackson Co., MS. We hate South Florida hits here on the central Gulf Coast, because we know it's going to come up later. It's not always for us, but Andrew, Katrina, Betsy, etc. etc. etc.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
It found a weakness, moving poleward. Ridging collapses entirely.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
WTNT82 EGRR 280356
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.08.2019
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 62.6W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2019 0 15.5N 62.6W 1010 25
1200UTC 28.08.2019 12 17.2N 64.6W 1009 32
0000UTC 29.08.2019 24 18.6N 65.9W 1008 36
1200UTC 29.08.2019 36 20.1N 67.2W 1005 39
0000UTC 30.08.2019 48 22.2N 68.0W 997 49
1200UTC 30.08.2019 60 23.9N 69.2W 989 55
0000UTC 31.08.2019 72 25.3N 70.5W 978 66
1200UTC 31.08.2019 84 26.3N 72.4W 978 67
0000UTC 01.09.2019 96 26.7N 74.0W 975 70
1200UTC 01.09.2019 108 27.0N 75.3W 970 69
0000UTC 02.09.2019 120 27.2N 76.4W 963 80
1200UTC 02.09.2019 132 27.2N 77.3W 965 74
0000UTC 03.09.2019 144 26.9N 77.6W 964 67
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.08.2019
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 62.6W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2019 0 15.5N 62.6W 1010 25
1200UTC 28.08.2019 12 17.2N 64.6W 1009 32
0000UTC 29.08.2019 24 18.6N 65.9W 1008 36
1200UTC 29.08.2019 36 20.1N 67.2W 1005 39
0000UTC 30.08.2019 48 22.2N 68.0W 997 49
1200UTC 30.08.2019 60 23.9N 69.2W 989 55
0000UTC 31.08.2019 72 25.3N 70.5W 978 66
1200UTC 31.08.2019 84 26.3N 72.4W 978 67
0000UTC 01.09.2019 96 26.7N 74.0W 975 70
1200UTC 01.09.2019 108 27.0N 75.3W 970 69
0000UTC 02.09.2019 120 27.2N 76.4W 963 80
1200UTC 02.09.2019 132 27.2N 77.3W 965 74
0000UTC 03.09.2019 144 26.9N 77.6W 964 67
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Ridge is shrinking, looks like another recurve'ish solution.
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
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M a r k
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