ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

What has impressed me the most is that the cloud structure, with that buzz-saw look, is so well defined that it will only take just a bit of moisture and relaxing shear for it to rapidly intensify.

[Aric Dunn]

Correct its not a reforming in the normal sense. But rather from being disrupted by the various peaks as discussed esrlier.

Localized drops in pressure caused the center to "morph" rather than an actual reform. Its not a coincidence that it is west of martinique either.

Aric, according to the map I am looking at the HH has the center west of St. Lucia the island just south of Martinique.
http://tropicwatch.info/dorian082720191424.jpg

Not for long.. check radar. And look closer at the surface obs.. its forming.. and or formed west of martinique.

It is very clear.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar is looking 10 times more impressive.. keep watch now..

[SFLcane]

So it emerges from the caribbean but never makes to hurricane status before FL.. Maybe conditions are not that favorable afterall in the bahamas

[tropicwatch]

Correct its not a reforming in the normal sense. But rather from being disrupted by the various peaks as discussed esrlier.

Localized drops in pressure caused the center to "morph" rather than an actual reform. Its not a coincidence that it is west of martinique either.

Aric, according to the map I am looking at the HH has the center west of St. Lucia the island just south of Martinique.
http://tropicwatch.info/dorian082720191424.jpg

Not for long.. check radar. And look closer at the surface obs.. its forming.. and or formed west of martinique.

It is very clear.

Yep I see it

[AxaltaRacing24]

So it emerges from the caribbean but never makes to hurricane status before FL.. Maybe conditions are not that favorable afterall in the bahamas

They are favorable. But the nhc is being extremely conservative. Warm waters, low shear, and much less dry air. But we cannot make calls on final intensity when the storm hasn’t even gotten there yet. could be anywhere from a weak ts or a major.

[Evil Jeremy]

So it emerges from the caribbean but never makes to hurricane status before FL.. Maybe conditions are not that favorable afterall in the bahamas

Are you referring to the current NHC intensity forecast? If this makes it past Hispaniola with some kind of structure, with 48+ hours over the Gulf Stream, I wouldn't bank on this staying a Tropical Storm. From the NHC perspective though, there's too many short term variables to confidently forecast a Hurricane. It really will come down to interaction with Hispaniola over the next 36 hours. I haven't seen any meteorologists suggest unfavorable conditions in the Bahamas.

[SFLcane]

So it emerges from the caribbean but never makes to hurricane status before FL.. Maybe conditions are not that favorable afterall in the bahamas

They are favorable. But the nhc is being extremely conservative. Warm waters, low shear, and much less dry air. But we cannot make calls on final intensity when the storm hasn’t even gotten there yet. could be anywhere from a weak ts or a major.

Yeah I am not sure I agree with that intensity forecast. If it doesn't die (big if), should intensify more in the Bahamas

[eastcoastFL]

My local forecast


SaturdayTropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday NightShowers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Windy, with an east wind 10 to 20 mph becoming north 25 to 35 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[AxaltaRacing24]

So it emerges from the caribbean but never makes to hurricane status before FL.. Maybe conditions are not that favorable afterall in the bahamas

They are favorable. But the nhc is being extremely conservative. Warm waters, low shear, and much less dry air. But we cannot make calls on final intensity when the storm hasn’t even gotten there yet. could be anywhere from a weak ts or a major.

Yeah I am not sure I agree with that intensity forecast. If it doesn't die (big if), should intensify more in the Bahamas

I feel that they are keeping intensity low due to the uncertainty. If it survives Hispaniola looking decently alive, then this will likely become at least a cat 1 hurricane

[otowntiger]

This is definityely NOT an Irma or Maria - both were intense hurricanes at this point in their track: http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics ... t-guad.gif

Agreed. It would require a very unlikely rapid intensification cycle at some point in the Caribbean or Bahamas for anything similar to occur. IN my opinion of course.

[SoupBone]

So are those NE to SW winds part of the shear it's about to track into?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-13-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[TheStormExpert]

Snippet from the 11am discussion concerning the large uncertainty in intensity in the 4-5 day range.

However, the models continue to
indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear conditions are
expected to remain favorable for strengthening throughout the
forecast period, so it is uncertain why the dynamical models are not
showing more development and strengthening when compared to the more
robust statistical SHIPS intensity models, especially at days 4 and
5 when Dorian will be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and
into a fairly moist environment. For now, the official intensity
forecast remains basically midway between the stronger SHIPS model
and the much weaker global and regional models. Given the large
spread in the guidance, there is lower than normal confidence in the
intensity forecast, especially on days 4 an 5.

[kevin mathis]

So it emerges from the caribbean but never makes to hurricane status before FL.. Maybe conditions are not that favorable afterall in the bahamas

They are favorable. But the nhc is being extremely conservative. Warm waters, low shear, and much less dry air. But we cannot make calls on final intensity when the storm hasn’t even gotten there yet. could be anywhere from a weak ts or a major.

Yeah I am not sure I agree with that intensity forecast. If it doesn't die (big if), should intensify more in the Bahamas

Let us not forget...The NHC, by there own admission, struggles with intensity. They were chasing Michael the whole time. Originally forecast to be just a TS at landfall. Then they chased the intensity up and up as the storm ran past their prediction. They are great scientist, but they speak of even their own limitations in forecasting mother nature.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1166361726880755712

[northjaxpro]

It is now official, as of the 11 a.m. advisory from NHC the entire Florida East Coast is now in the cone of uncertainty.

[stormhunter7]

Definitely looks like dry air came into center after crossing island. Also notice it's starting to fire feeder bands on southern side.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composite/kidbuuComposite_Lionel_displayer.php?Product=Reflectivity&Sector=EC_Bar&Composite=Sabre&ANISP=700&MAPP=1&PlanetOfTheApes=1566917918

[SFLcane]

Never really intensifies in the Bahamas considering the fuel and favorable conditions. Not sure the reasoning behind this. A 65mph TS near haiti you would think there was room for further intensification.

[Emmett_Brown]

It is now official, as of the 11 a.m. advisory from NHC the entire Florida East Coast is now in the cone of uncertainty.

We've been coned!!

[SouthFLTropics]

Just got an alert on my phone from WPTV Channel 5 that said Dorian not expected to become a hurricane. Alerts like that drive me crazy because it just makes the public complacent. Think they might should have added “at this time, but things can change”.