ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

Appears to be getting ready for eyewall replacement.

[DioBrando]

Appears to be getting ready for eyewall replacement.

https://i.imgur.com/AECRZy7.jpg

Already?

[NDG]

Not a bad looking hurricane for where it was supposed to be a dead zone this hurricane season.

[wx98]

I'd say this will top out at low-end Cat 4 at most. Don't really see much more than that with it being that far east and ingesting dry air like it has been.

[CyclonicFury]

Not a bad looking hurricane for where it was supposed to be a dead zone this hurricane season.

I thought the MDR was closed...how is this happening?

[wx98]

However, an eye is now starting to appear on IR, so I bet we'll be looking at a Cat 3 Major within 12 hours.

[Ubuntwo]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Lorenzo is absolutely massive. One of the largest CV hurricanes I've ever seen this far east.

[1900hurricane]

Even going through eyewall replacement, Lorenzo is flashing its potential with its large and cold CDO. Reminds me of something I'd see in the WPac around this time of year.

[Hurricaneman]

For those who say going out to sea, this could be a rare major hurricane for the Azores

I think a better term would be recurve

[Tailspin]

 https://twitter.com/i/status/1177077709144559616




looks a small eye on this loop.

[Monsoonjr99]

Lorenzo looks very impressive for a system this far east this late in the season. Indeed it reminds me more of a WPac system than an Atl system.

I'm pretty confident that this will be a category 4, but I disagree with the chatter about this being a cat 5. 150 mph MAX imo. Lorenzo is just too far east too late in the year to reach that intensity. SSTs may or may not support it and Lorenzo has to deal with dry air and EWRCs. I believe Hugo was the easternmost cat 5 on record in the Atlantic and Lorenzo is far east of where Hugo was when it reached that intensity. A category 5 this far east this late in Cabo Verde season would be even more anomalous than Wutip imo; at least the WPac has had a history of intense typhoons at wacky times of year, so a February category 5 was bound to happen eventually.

[bob rulz]

I agree that cat 5 is a stretch, but the last few years have done a lot of things we didn't think would ever happen.

That said, I can't wait to see this beauty at max strength in the open ocean.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1177150388518215680

[Nancy Smar]

WTNT43 KNHC 261003
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Special Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
600 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

Shortly after the issuance of the 0900 UTC advisory, Lorenzo's eye
quickly and drastically became more apparent in conventional
satellite imagery. The slightly ragged but clearing eye of the
hurricane is surrounded by very cold cloud tops, and it has become
clear that Lorenzo is rapidly intensifying. A 0900 UTC TAFB Dvorak
classification of 6.0/6.0 (115 kt) was used as the primary basis for
increasing the intensity of Lorenzo. Because objective fixes from
just a few hours ago were much lower, the intensity of the hurricane
has been increased, perhaps conservatively, to 110 kt. Since this is
10 kt above the previous 12-h forecast, a special advisory is
required to update the intensity forecast.

Additional strengthening is possible later today. Earlier intensity
guidance indicated that Lorenzo's intensity should level off in a
day or so, though none of the guidance correctly anticipated the
rate at which the hurricane has strengthened this morning. Now that
the hurricane has a closed eyewall, fluctuations in intensity due to
eyewall replacement cycles are also possible, though this is not
explicitly reflected in the updated forecast. By the end of the
forecast period, the updated NHC forecast is relaxed to the original
forecast and shows some gradual weakening. Further adjustments,
especially at 72 h and beyond, may be required later this morning.

No changes were made to the track forecast, which is based on the
previous regular advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1000Z 15.2N 39.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[DioBrando]

sksksksksks and I oop

I exploded into a top end cat 3 and now I feel epic. Gonna beat Humberto easily
Forecast to hit 140mph but I promise I'll be better! I'm trying my best!

Can I beat ophelia?

[tolakram]

SLIDER is down so here's the COD loop.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-capeverde-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

10 minute visible from Tropical Tidbits
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=vis

[northjaxpro]

Lorenzo is just simply a textbook, classica, CV tropical cyclone. He is only going to look even more impressive as he intensifies more the next couple of days. Lorenzo takes up about 1/3 of the entire Eastern Tropical Atlantic with his massive outflow and moisture envelope.

I look at it completely in awe on satellite!! What an impressive tropical cyclone!!!

[Do_For_Love]

Looks like Lorenzo has turned into a beast overnight. I'll be interested to see how strong it's maximum is...Hopefully the Azores don't get hit too bad.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I seriously can't get over how large this hurricane is. Absolutely spectacular.