ATL: DORIAN - Models

[p1nheadlarry]

06z HWRF south as well. Believe 0z was near Jax/Tybee just offshore, 06 is right into Canaveral as a major.

[NDG]

43/52 of the 00z ECMWF ensemble members and 18/21 06z GFS members (2 members go through the Straits of FL for GOM landfalls, 1 does not develop) have an east coast Florida landfall. That's 61/73 members (including master/control) or ~84% likely outcome.

6/52 members of the 00z ECMWF recurve or do not develop, 1/21 of the 06z GFS members does not develop. That's 7/73 members, or ~10%.

So in another words, 90% chance that it will strike the US at this point.

[AxaltaRacing24]

43/52 of the 00z ECMWF ensemble members and 18/21 06z GFS members (2 members go through the Straits of FL for GOM landfalls, 1 does not develop) have an east coast Florida landfall. That's 61/73 members (including master/control) or ~84% likely outcome.

6/52 members of the 00z ECMWF recurve or do not develop, 1/21 of the 06z GFS members does not develop. That's 7/73 members, or ~10%.

So in another words, 90% chance that it will strike the US at this point.

Basically. It is becoming extremely likely.

[Blow_Hard]

I know it's a little to early to sound the all clear for NW FL (Panhandle) but it is good to see that neither the GFS nor the Euro traverse the peninsula and end up in our neck of the woods (Panama City). We cannot handle much more than a strong thunderstorm right now. Stayed up last night to watch the Euro 00z run and breathed a little sigh of relief to see it re-curve before reaching us...still keeping a weary eye on things but I am cautiously optimistic right now...

[chris_fit]

I know it's a little to early to sound the all clear for NW FL (Panhandle) but it is good to see that neither the GFS nor the Euro traverse the peninsula and end up in our neck of the woods (Panama City). We cannot handle much more than a strong thunderstorm right now. Stayed up last night to watch the Euro 00z run and breathed a little sigh of relief to see it re-curve before reaching us...still keeping a weary eye on things but I am cautiously optimistic right now...

Wrong... Look at the ensembles.... You can't even see the panhandle that's how many members take it that way....

[Aric Dunn]

Its now moving farther ne and east of every model in the next 24 hours.. expect some more south shifts.

[WeatherEmperor]

Its now moving farther ne and east of every model in the next 24 hours.. expect some more south shifts.

Aric, for south shifts you mean in the long run when it approaches Florida??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Aric Dunn]

Its now moving farther ne and east of every model in the next 24 hours.. expect some more south shifts.

Aric, for south shifts you mean in the long run when it approaches Florida??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes

[WeatherEmperor]

Its now moving farther ne and east of every model in the next 24 hours.. expect some more south shifts.

Aric, for south shifts you mean in the long run when it approaches Florida??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes

Sorry for the many questions but which model do you believe is best right now? I think the UK was the first to hint this more east initial motion. Is the UK the one to trust more??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[hurricaneCW]

Its now moving farther ne and east of every model in the next 24 hours.. expect some more south shifts.

Huh?

Why would there be south shifts if the storm is N/E of current models/forecasts. If anything this gives credence to a much further north track.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Its now moving farther ne and east of every model in the next 24 hours.. expect some more south shifts.

Huh?

Why would there be south shifts if the storm is N/E of current models/forecasts. If anything this gives credence to a much further north track.

Not long term it doesn’t.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, for south shifts you mean in the long run when it approaches Florida??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes

Sorry for the many questions but which model do you believe is best right now? I think the UK was the first to hint this more east initial motion. Is the UK the one to trust more??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well you can start with the models that inialize the current snoptics better.

Gfs has the main steeering feature currently to large and strong.

In short we need another 24hrs to be confident..

But florida east coast is looking highly likely

[Blow_Hard]

I know it's a little to early to sound the all clear for NW FL (Panhandle) but it is good to see that neither the GFS nor the Euro traverse the peninsula and end up in our neck of the woods (Panama City). We cannot handle much more than a strong thunderstorm right now. Stayed up last night to watch the Euro 00z run and breathed a little sigh of relief to see it re-curve before reaching us...still keeping a weary eye on things but I am cautiously optimistic right now...

Wrong... Look at the ensembles.... You can't even see the panhandle that's how many members take it that way....

https://i.imgur.com/sBrzhd2.png

https://i.imgur.com/wKrpLWD.png

I've seen those but I'm just watching the model trends(if you can call them that) and most all of them show a bend bact to the NE and even the NHC Cone reflects that. Like I said, I'm not writing this off but at least for right now, it looks a little better than it did yesterday at this time.

[Jr0d]

Its now moving farther ne and east of every model in the next 24 hours.. expect some more south shifts.

Huh?

Why would there be south shifts if the storm is N/E of current models/forecasts. If anything this gives credence to a much further north track.

If the storm is South and east of the ridge it will initially take a WSW course, the W when due South of the high, and won't turn WNW until it is west of the high.

[Emmett_Brown]

The overall trend from 06Z GFS and GFS legacy is a shift to the left vs the 0Z runs. So it appears like a narrowing of the swath a bit.

[Aric Dunn]

6z euro holding to the same solution maybe slightly south. Deepening hurricane coming into bahamas at 90 hours.

[WeatherEmperor]

6z euro holding to the same solution maybe slightly south. Deepening hurricane coming into bahamas at 90 hours.

Hello Aric. Sorry again, but can you post a Tweet or something of the 6z Euro?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NDG]

GFS operational run making the TVCN right biased.

[tgenius]

6z euro holding to the same solution maybe slightly south. Deepening hurricane coming into bahamas at 90 hours.

Aric about what latitude is it at 90?

[jlauderdal]

I know it's a little to early to sound the all clear for NW FL (Panhandle) but it is good to see that neither the GFS nor the Euro traverse the peninsula and end up in our neck of the woods (Panama City). We cannot handle much more than a strong thunderstorm right now. Stayed up last night to watch the Euro 00z run and breathed a little sigh of relief to see it re-curve before reaching us...still keeping a weary eye on things but I am cautiously optimistic right now...

you need to start preparing for a hurricane immediately, the trend is definitely not your friend especially if it takes a path and gets into he gulf versus getting knocked down over land say the cape to gainseville to tally