ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm definitely starting to get worried about Dorian possibly stalling out near/over Florida. If the storm does what the GFS indicates or goes further west as a significant hurricane then that'll result in significant flooding.

[northjaxpro]

The 18Z GFS has Dorian making landfall in - Savannah, the NE US high moving east a bit faster: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82718&fh=6

I’m still not believing these north scenarios one bit.

.
I agree not that far north.Something seemed off with the 18Z GFS Operational pakage.

[Nimbus]

I notice TD 6 seems to be interacting with the upper level low north of Hispaniola.
The ULL isn't rolling west yet so if Dorian tracks too far west the shear could inhibit development. Dorian is currently in a down cycle so there isn't much convection over the center ATM, I'm not sure he is tracking as far east as the IR signature might suggest..

[AutoPenalti]

Anyone from Key West to North Carolina to Europe should be watching this closely.

[Highteeld]

That outflow & cirrus banding though

[toad strangler]

lol JB missed 18 GFS's

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1166483644585795584

[Aric Dunn]

Couple big hot towers rotating around the center now.. just in time for recon..

coming into PR radar view

[ObsessedMiami]

How does the recent Northward jog affect the potential for a South FL impact? Trying to decide how much I need to be preparing now, etc.

Until the storm clears PR/ Hispaniola (if it does at all), no one can be confident in any trend. My advice is to get what you need to now because if it comes out intact the rush will be on to the stores and gas station. By then you might be SOL.

Trying to read the posts here you get all kinds of conflicting advice, it’s going to Savannah, it’s going to be another Katrina and slice WSW into SFL, it’s going to go poof/it’s looking stronger.

Just save the headache and get what you need and fire up some popcorn and check back tomorrow night

[captainbarbossa19]

lol JB missed 18 GFS's

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1166483644585795584

It seems a bit early to suggest that the storm is not going to be as strong as the hurricanes he mentioned. I do not know what Dorian is going to do, but intensity tends to be very difficult to forecast.

[Hammy]

Weather Channel mentioned similarities to Erika in 2015, and Dorian really should've been Erin as the overall setup is similar to Erika (both 2009 and 15) and Emily in 2011--there's still quite a bit of easterly shear out there with a massive upper trough to the west (as well as the models massively over-blowing the intensity forecasts with those three.)

That said, don't take this as a reason not to prepare.

Edit: Did the AF plane quit reporting? The last update is 45 minutes ago.

[Blown Away]

Reminder how rare to have a hurricane landfall from the SE between Vero and Jacksonville... I will always lay a bet on stronger ridge pushing Dorian S of Vero or a recurve into Carolinas or OTS... Dora is the only real example on record landfalling from the SE... Something will give from current track...

[Bocadude85]

The 8pm location is at 15.8N 62.7W, the 5pm location was 15.3N 62.5W, Dorian moved .5 degrees north and only .2 degrees west, if this continues he will either miss Puerto Rico to the east or clip the eastern side of Puerto Rico, not the western side as most models are showing.

[Hammy]

https://i.imgur.com/uYmxHdI.jpg

Reminder how rare to have a hurricane landfall from the SE between Vero and Jacksonville... I will always lay a bet on stronger ridge pushing Dorian S of Vero or a recurve into Carolinas or OTS... Dora is the only real example on record landfalling from the SE... Something will give from current track...

Ironic naming should some of the recent runs play out...

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/uYmxHdI.jpg

Reminder how rare to have a hurricane landfall from the SE between Vero and Jacksonville... I will always lay a bet on stronger ridge pushing Dorian S of Vero or a recurve into Carolinas or OTS... Dora is the only real example on record landfalling from the SE... Something will give from current track...

Ironic naming should some of the recent runs play out...

Good catch, your right... That's a big factor now, destiny!

[HurricaneIrma]

Anyone from Key West to North Carolina to Europe should be watching this closely.

Yes

[Ian2401]

The 8pm location is at 15.8N 62.7W, the 5pm location was 15.3N 62.5W, Dorian moved .5 degrees north and only .2 degrees west, if this continues he will either miss Puerto Rico to the east or clip the eastern side of Puerto Rico, not the western side as most models are showing.

Looks like its heading due West or WNW now

[AdamFirst]

I feel like we have this conversation in every big storm thread

It's still way too early to make any sort of definitive calls on potential CONUS impacts. This thing may still die out before our eyes. Puerto Rico is no slouch in terms of elevation (3-to-4 thousand foot peaks) and if Dorian decides to swallow the island whole I don't think he'll fare too well.

[AtlanticWind]

Should be an interesting discussion at 11 with the 18z model runs

[wzrgirl1]

I’ve been living in south Florida for almost 50 years. Never underestimate a tropical system in its current location as anything is possible. I just came from the store and there were a few people getting water and canned food like me. I also ordered some batteries and flashlights from Amazon Prime. Only takes two days. Now I can sit back and watch Dorian and if it comes I am prepared. If not, I am prepared for the next one. Because there will be a next one.

[ObsessedMiami]

I feel like we have this conversation in every big storm thread

It's still way too early to make any sort of definitive calls on potential CONUS impacts. This thing may still die out before our eyes. Puerto Rico is no slouch in terms of elevation (3-to-4 thousand foot peaks) and if Dorian decides to swallow the island whole I don't think he'll fare too well.

As I said, its all conjecture until it passes PR. Then we can start talking in earnest. Yet, i can't stop refreshing.