ATL: DORIAN - Models

[jlauderdal]

To clarify, I know that the NAM is not a reliable tropical model, but the decrease motion is so glaring that it's hard to ignore that something may be changing. If the rest of the 12Z models show a similar slowing of speed ... well, I'm not really sure what it's all going to mean lol

the NAM has had some very good wins on pattern recognition on landfall approach, don't automatically discount it just because its the NAM

True. But still don't know the ramifications of slowing speed because NAM only goes out 84hrs

The NAM has its limitations, not the best thing to use for a hurricane in the open atlantic

[Jonny]

Category 3 status by Sunday according to TWC.

[toad strangler]

Miami back in the cone.

[AdamFirst]

12Z ICON is rolling. Turning toward WNW at 45hr

[Senobia]

Still many Ensemble Members of both GFS and ECM bringing Dorian over into the Gulf for a 2nd landfall. Nobody should feel all clear over here in the Gulf.

Is there model data posted in this thread (or anywhere that I can look at) to show a possible location/track for a second landfall?

[sma10]

12Z ICON is rolling. Turning toward WNW at 45hr

ICON absolutely sticking to its guns (thru hr 57 at least)

[Jonny]

Is there model data posted in this thread (or anywhere that I can look at) to show a possible location/track for a second landfall?

Other than models showing Dorian entering the GOM, no locations have been posted.

[chris_fit]

ICON trend, last 3 runs @ 60hrs

[catskillfire51]

Icon initialized weaker then it currently is though.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2812&fh=96

96 hours icon

[beachman80]

Still many Ensemble Members of both GFS and ECM bringing Dorian over into the Gulf for a 2nd landfall. Nobody should feel all clear over here in the Gulf.

Is there model data posted in this thread (or anywhere that I can look at) to show a possible location/track for a second landfall?

Euro is close. It crosses into the extreme Eastern gulf and then turns it around quickly making landfall just north of Tampa and goes through the other side of the Florida.

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=watl&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2019082812&fh=96

96 hours icon

There's a weakness down into Kansas at that point. This will be what will either help pick it up or leave it behind for whatever happens next. Usually highs build in behind exiting troughs. Timing on the arrival and how far south that trough gets will be big.

[jfk08c]

Next GFS run should have it running a little faster than the previous. Looks like it could come down to whether or not the system can get to the supposed ridge before it weakens and make its westward turn

Seems to be showing the location the system is at now at the 18z mark. That's a few hours behind schedule

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=108

108 hours

[chris_fit]

12Z icon very similar to last so far, just a hair slower.

[chris_fit]

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=watl&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2019082812&fh=108

108 hours

Almost due west there but actually going a bit south of due west at 108 - maybe 260 degrees? NAM is headed for Cuba, ICON just a bit north of there.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=108

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Still many Ensemble Members of both GFS and ECM bringing Dorian over into the Gulf for a 2nd landfall. Nobody should feel all clear over here in the Gulf.

Is there model data posted in this thread (or anywhere that I can look at) to show a possible location/track for a second landfall?

Euro is close. It crosses into the extreme Eastern gulf and then turns it around quickly making landfall just north of Tampa and goes through the other side of the Florida.

By the time it swings out into the GOM and comes back north of tampa bay, what would be the expected strength though? a state traverse would likely knock it down to a tropical storm again by the time it hits the gulf. unlikely there would be much time to reintensify. at least that is what I'm hoping. then again, 5+ days out, this will likely not be the exact scenario if Euro is showing that now. fingers crossed!

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS Rolling -

[stormchazer]

Would not assume Dorian would be a Tropical Storm after exiting FL west coast. Lakeland Airport had 89 mph readings from Irma.