ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Steve]

Icon headed to extreme South Florida via a West or just south of west track. Me no like.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=126

[caneseddy]

Icon headed to extreme South Florida via a West or just south of west track. Me no like.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=126

ICON sticking to its guns of an extreme South Florida landfall.

[gatorcane]

Wow ICON is adamant on that track. Run after run has shown the same.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ridge appears to be slightly stronger on this run of the GFS...Also, Dorian slightly east of the 06z at 42 hours.

[hohnywx]

Would not assume Dorian would be a Tropical Storm after exiting FL west coast. Lakeland Airport had 89 mph readings from Irma.

All depends on the forward motion of the storm...Charley came off the east coast as a Cat 1 I believe.

[Steve]

Icon headed to extreme South Florida via a West or just south of west track. Me no like.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=126

ICON sticking to its guns of an extreme South Florida landfall.

Yeah, it's usually not that great and has been a southern outlier among the globals. I'm hoping it's wrong (no offense to anyone up the coast obviously).

[AutoPenalti]

Icon headed to extreme South Florida via a West or just south of west track. Me no like.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=126

ICON sticking to its guns of an extreme South Florida landfall.

Yeah, it's usually not that great and has been a southern outlier among the globals. I'm hoping it's wrong (no offense to anyone up the coast obviously).

FWIW, ICON has followed suit with the UKMET recently.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Icon headed to extreme South Florida via a West or just south of west track. Me no like.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=126

ICON sticking to its guns of an extreme South Florida landfall.

Yeah, it's usually not that great and has been a southern outlier among the globals. I'm hoping it's wrong (no offense to anyone up the coast obviously).

It’s actually been doing quite well with this storm.

[Javlin]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=watl&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2019082812&fh=96

96 hours icon

There's a weakness down into Kansas at that point. This will be what will either help pick it up or leave it behind for whatever happens next. Usually highs build in behind exiting troughs. Timing on the arrival and how far south that trough gets will be big.

I have been looking at the 500mb maps and the GFS really does not have that strong of a ridge starts breaking the ridge about 108hr while the Euro starts at 144hrs quite a bit of difference.Still we are talking a window 5 days out which one can see a rain potential forecast 5 days out be 1.5" and when day 5 arrives it's reduced to .25" and nothing happens.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=150


150 hr

[tolakram]

500mb ridge looks stronger on this run.

[beachman80]

ICON pulling a Katrina and Andrew here.

[tolakram]

Trend

[Steve]

ICON sticking to its guns of an extreme South Florida landfall.

Yeah, it's usually not that great and has been a southern outlier among the globals. I'm hoping it's wrong (no offense to anyone up the coast obviously).

It’s actually been doing quite well with this storm.

It has. It's not particularly trustworthy though. However, at 147 hours (which would be valid for Tuesday morning), it's north of Key West and nudging WNW and beginning to come up. FL? AL/MS? LA? Wherever it is, looks to be middle of next week with the northern (or eastern) Gulf hit wherever that ends up on the model

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=144

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS taking a hard turn to the left 60-66hrs

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=177

over a week away man o man still lots of watching

[Evil Jeremy]

Almost a full degree S (and a little E) of the 06z run at 78 hrs

[supercane4867]

12z ICON end of the run targets the Gulf Coast

[SouthFLTropics]

Ridge is without question stronger on this run of the GFS than it has been on the last 4.

[beachman80]

GFS looks like the same track as Euro thus far. About to slam into the Cape.