ATL: DORIAN - Models

[USTropics]

12z UKMET plots:

[stormlover2013]

One thing about the 12z GFZ is that it's thinking a bit bigger in size of the storm.

GFS has no clue what is going on right now

Why do you say this?

It has been been inconsistent for 4 days, can't have no consistent what so ever. The ensembles are totally different from the op run.

[ronjon]

Anybody know if 12z UKMET track shifted from it's 00z run?

[chris_fit]

GFS keeps going more W - out to sea run is over

[1900hurricane]

Isn't ICON a UKMET-based model, like the Australian ACCESS model?

I don't believe so. ICON is the German model. And it is not very accurate - definitely a lower tier model.

Thanks, I was under the impression that it was, but I'm not sure what first gave me that idea.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Anybody know if 12z UKMET track shifted from it's 00z run?

Yep..makes landfall in PBC after a little sw dip

[Highteeld]

Anybody know if 12z UKMET track shifted from it's 00z run?

Looks like it's about 10-12 mb stronger

[DESTRUCTION5]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhydro_web_qry.storm_display

Now the Euro CMC(pos) and UKmet all make landfall in Jupiter. GFS still 150 miles N of that.

[Aric Dunn]

Not surprised on the continued shifts south.. likely expect more sincr it is being east in the short term.

[beachman80]

So the midday story is that all of Florida, including South Florida and perhaps the Keys, is back in play. The GOM needs to keep a watchful eye because there is a growing chance compared to yesterday it could sneak in there if only for a little bit.

[AutoPenalti]

So the midday story is that all of Florida, including South Florida and perhaps the Keys, is back in play. The GOM needs to keep a watchful eye because there is a growing chance compared to yesterday it could sneak in there if only for a little bit.

They were always in play.

[WAcyclone]

Isn't ICON a UKMET-based model, like the Australian ACCESS model?

No, it is an independent model. There is an extensive Database Reference Manual available online with technical details: https://www.dwd.de/SharedDocs/downloads ... n&nn=13934

[Jr0d]

Icon headed to extreme South Florida via a West or just south of west track. Me no like.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=126

This is concerning for us down in the keys. Especially since the ICON has performed so well so far.

[AxaltaRacing24]

So the midday story is that all of Florida, including South Florida and perhaps the Keys, is back in play. The GOM needs to keep a watchful eye because there is a growing chance compared to yesterday it could sneak in there if only for a little bit.

They were always in play TBH. Nothing has really changed.

[Javlin]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhydro_web_qry.storm_display

Now the Euro CMC(pos) and UKmet all make landfall in Jupiter. GFS still 150 miles N of that.

That blind squirrel found a nut with Ivan was good till the R/turn to Pensacola seriously isn't the GFS R/bias while the Euro L/bias? Ridging.

[toad strangler]

00z UKMET plots:
https://i.imgur.com/rLXwrE8.jpg

That says 00Z

[beachman80]

CMC 12z just north of WPB landfall and going across Tampa Bay on west side. Seems to be the story of the day.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2812&fh=96

[Evil Jeremy]

I've been saying it since Sunday, don't take your eye off the UKMET. It handles these SE-to-NW Florida approaches generally well.

[StPeteMike]

CMC 12z just north of WPB landfall and going across Tampa Bay on west side. Seems to be the story of the day.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2812&fh=96

The CMC seems way too weak during this run.

[chris_fit]

GFS Legacy 12Z