ATL: DORIAN - Models

[chris_fit]

GFS Legacy Trend around landfall

[USTropics]

00z UKMET plots:
https://i.imgur.com/rLXwrE8.jpg

That says 00Z

Those were 12z tracks, fixed description.

[ronjon]

If we throw out the 12z GFS we're now starting to get a rather tight consensus on Dorian 5 day track into Florida.

12z GFS legacy - Melbourne to Cedar Key
12z CMC - Jupiter to Hernando County
12z UKMET - Jupiter to ?
12z ICON - Homestead to GOM

[Dean4Storms]

The telling suites today will be the Ensembles of GFS and ECM runs. If they mostly stay south of central FL you’ll have to give more credence to the UKMET run which has not vacillated at all.

[cjrciadt]

If we throw out the 12z GFS we're now starting to get a rather tight consensus on Dorian 5 day track into Florida.

12z GFS legacy - Melbourne to Cedar Key
12z CMC - Jupiter to Hernando County
12z UKMET - Jupiter to ?
12z ICON - Homestead to GOM

At least cat 1 conditions I would get even in Kissimmee from Legacy!

[ronjon]

The telling suites today will be the Ensembles of GFS and ECM runs. If they mostly stay south of central FL you’ll have to give more credence to the UKMET run which has not vacillated at all.

That and the 12z Euro operational run - if that zeros in on WPB-Vero Beach then slowly getting to a consensus.

[tolakram]

It has been been inconsistent for 4 days, can't have no consistent what so ever. The ensembles are totally different from the op run.

Just ignore the fact it's been more accurate with the track through 72 hours then. You've also been told that the ensembles are still running on the old GFS core.

[Javlin]

That's a bigtime shift in the CMC to the W second hit in Pensacola lots of models portending to more ridging will have to see if that continues to play out over a couple more runs.

[gatorcane]

Given Dorian’s more east location and strength, did the 12Z models even initialize correctly?

[canes92]

I hate all these inconsistencies. I just want to know where this storm is going and how strong. If only we could know, doubt I'm the only one who feels this way. Don't want to get prepared and have it all be for nothing.

[sicktght311]

I hate all these inconsistencies. I just want to know where this storm is going and how strong. If only we could know, doubt I'm the only one who feels this way. Don't want to get prepared and have it all be for nothing.

You should spend more time on these forums lol or maybe dont if this kind of thing stresses you hah always be prepared, even if it turns out to be nothing. This is legitimately how 1 out of every 3 storms go. 7-9days out = Massive storm of epic proportions, 4-5 days out = Models have no clue and the stress and towel throwing begins, 2-3 days out = Forecast track gets better solidifed, but strength watch begins. 1 day out = consensus and preparation for observation

[jdray]

GFS slows it down, so again a flooding nightmare after the initial hit.

https://i.imgur.com/psPKAle.png

Bad scenario for flooding.
24 hour rainfall totals in NE Florida could be 15+ inches.

[Emmett_Brown]

If model swings frustrate anyone, then just use the official NHC track, it's generally always more accurate and consistent than any model

[pgoss11]

If model swings frustrate anyone, then just use the official NHC track, it's generally always more accurate and consistent than any model

This is so true. People may not like the track the NHC has but after decades of following these storms, the NHC is usually dead on with their forecasts. #ultimaterespect

[northjaxpro]

GFS slows it down, so again a flooding nightmare after the initial hit.

https://i.imgur.com/psPKAle.png

Bad scenario for flooding.
24 hour rainfall totals in NE Florida could be 15+ inches.

Yeah JD Ray I saw the preliminary estimates. I do not want to even think about the Storm Surge potential in the Saint Johns River. lt could be disastrous. I am extremely concerned needless to say...

[tolakram]

I would urge everyone who is stuck on a single model to understand the value of using multiple models to make a forecast. Saying the euro or ukie or gfs is the best, or crap, is misunderstanding how it works. The GFS is pulling the official track north, depending on how much weight is put on it by the forecasters. None of these big 3 is crap. Heck even the CMC is gaining a lot of respect lately.

[Frank P]

One thing about the 12z GFZ is that it's thinking a bit bigger in size of the storm.

GFS has no clue what is going on right now

That's about par for the golf course XD

Actually it was one of the better performing models with Barry this year... was it just lucky, who knows... but it’s what have you done for me lately that I add emphasis on ...

[AdamFirst]

12z HMON is south of its 06z run (approaching St. Lucie/Indian River County), but curiously enough is killing the storm on approach to the coast. 12z HWRF, in contrast, is definitely not killing it, with sub 960mb also approaching St. Lucie/Indian River, south of its 06z run.

[mcheer23]

12z GFS ensembles….

[caneseddy]

12z GFS ensembles….

Majority are still showing hard left turn into PBC and points south with some clustered with the operational GFS