ATL: DORIAN - Models

[p1nheadlarry]

90 hr HWRF: 958 mb Cat 5?

edit was looking at 850 hpa, whoops

[lsuhurricane]

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFS ensembles….

Concentrated on South Florida

EDIT: And oh boy, GoM watch out

[p1nheadlarry]

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL05_2019082812_GEFS_large.png?20190828173048

Seeing those orange plots in the gulf are not cool

[LCfromFL]

GFS slows it down, so again a flooding nightmare after the initial hit.

https://i.imgur.com/psPKAle.png

Bad scenario for flooding.
24 hour rainfall totals in NE Florida could be 15+ inches.

My daughter is getting married at 5:30 pm on Sunday in Callahan (NE FL). The Plan is outside for the ceremony and then inside for the reception (we have a Rain Plan - that was to deal with afternoon thunderstorms - not a dang hurricane). Monitoring Dorian closely here. My home flooded with TS Fay in 2018 and Irma in 2018. We are a bit stressed here between wedding prep plus storm prep. I was really liking the recurve scenario that some models were showing yesterday...can we vote that back in? Or maybe have Dorian take his slow sweet time and visit later on Monday?

[gatorcane]

HWRF and HMON shift south.

[caneseddy]

HWRF and HMON shift south.

Let's see what the Euro says. Not liking the trend for South Florida.

[gatorcane]

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL05_2019082812_GEFS_large.png?20190828173048

The GFS OP is north of the majority of these ensembles. Could portend more south shifts by the GFS. Alot of those runs are now over Southern Florida.

[AdamFirst]

HWRF and HMON shift south.

I'm curious why the HMON disintegrates the storm. It's pretty much gone when it reaches PBC.

[ronjon]

12 HWRF 945 mb into Vero Beach- Melbourne

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=05L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019082812&fh=96

[Blown Away]

I’m afraid of the 12z Euro coming up.

[p1nheadlarry]

I’m afraid of the 12z Euro coming up.

Everyone watching with a FL drivers license/Ontario license plate is afraid of the 12z Euro.

[StPeteMike]

I’m afraid of the 12z Euro coming up.

I don’t think it’s going to be pretty.

[AdamFirst]

12z EURO initialized

[stauglocal]

I’m afraid of the 12z Euro coming up.

I think everyone on the east coast of Florida feels the same way.

[AdamFirst]

HWRF has sub 940s heading right for Vero Beach (99hr)...deepening still over the Gulf Stream

[supercane4867]

Rapid deepening over the Gulf Stream on 12z HWRF. Very high-end CAT4

[artist]

GFS slows it down, so again a flooding nightmare after the initial hit.

https://i.imgur.com/psPKAle.png

Bad scenario for flooding.
24 hour rainfall totals in NE Florida could be 15+ inches.

My daughter is getting married at 5:30 pm on Sunday in Callahan (NE FL). The Plan is outside for the ceremony and then inside for the reception (we have a Rain Plan - that was to deal with afternoon thunderstorms - not a dang hurricane). Monitoring Dorian closely here. My home flooded with TS Fay in 2018 and Irma in 2018. We are a bit stressed here between wedding prep plus storm prep. I was really liking the recurve scenario that some models were showing yesterday...can we vote that back in? Or maybe have Dorian take his slow sweet time and visit later on Monday?

Can’t imagine how you all feel. Prepare for the worst. Will pray for the best and congrats to you all..

[gatorcane]

12 GEFS zeroes in on South Florida then GOM:

[Aric Dunn]

Well 12z euro initialized in entirely the wrong spot... grrrr