ATL: DORIAN - Models

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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1641 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:56 pm

Looks like the HWRF wants to take Dorian into the gulf. Heading toward FL west coast on end of the run
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1642 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:56 pm

nuclear landfall from the hwrf

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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1643 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:59 pm

Euro is going to really set the tone for this storm possibly.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1644 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:59 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Rapid deepening over the Gulf Stream on 12z HWRF. Very high-end CAT4


Nightmare scenario - good thing its the HWRF that always turns every storm into a mega hurricane.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1645 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:00 pm

ronjon wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Rapid deepening over the Gulf Stream on 12z HWRF. Very high-end CAT4


Nightmare scenario - good thing its the HWRF that always turns every storm into a mega hurricane.

a broken clock is right twice a day
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1646 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:00 pm

HWRF ends up in the gulf, after plowing through the peninsula
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1647 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:00 pm

Highteeld wrote:nuclear landfall from the hwrf


A frightening scenario.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1648 Postby p1nheadlarry » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:03 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Looks like the HWRF wants to take Dorian into the gulf. Heading toward FL west coast on end of the run


A trajectory puts that thing square on the inland areas that Michael either thrashed or just scared
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1649 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:04 pm

12z HWRF heading W-NW into the GOM to wreck havoc on another shoreline. If this were to verify, say goodbye to the I-4 corridor. Damage in the 10s of billions at least.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=05L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019082812&fh=96
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1650 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:04 pm

Euro 48hrs

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1651 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:07 pm

72hrs

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1652 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:07 pm

Turning hard left at 54 hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1653 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:09 pm

HWRF has a huge majorcane in the Gulf lol
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1654 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:10 pm

chris_fit wrote:72hrs

https://i.imgur.com/hrQOlgw.png
look at the ridging in place, it has only one way to go.
Last edited by jlauderdal on Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1655 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:10 pm

No where to go but W

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1656 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:10 pm

Holy crap, that ridge! :eek:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1657 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:11 pm

Very Andrew-esque on 12z euro
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1658 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:11 pm

Euro 10 mb stronger 24 hours sooner.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1659 Postby StPeteMike » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:12 pm

ronjon wrote:12z HWRF heading W-NW into the GOM to wreck havoc on another shoreline. If this were to verify, say goodbye to the I-4 corridor. Damage in the 10s of billions at least.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=05L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019082812&fh=96

HWRF clearly hates me lol
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1660 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:12 pm

Ridge looks stronger on the 12Z Euro than the 00Z
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