ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

And to think some were saying that it was going to be a sheared mess this morning, El Nino is not around any more.

[Aric Dunn]

you say its not the ridge breaking down than you say "causes the ridging to break down". we are talking the same thing so lets simplify it, the gfs has an escape route, the euro doesnt...we both agree that escape route wont be there and the EC of florida is in jeopardy of a hit and i will take it a step further, there will be another landfall somewhere on the gulf coast, florida isnt exactly the premier shredder in the atlantic basin, katrinas journey over the everglades did next to nothing to reduce its intensity

Erin has come into play which is the primary cause for the model uncertainty.
Later this morning I'm going to morph together the latest runs to see how the ridge forecast is evolving.

Currently appears to be ample time for a robust ridge to build in between Erin exiting and Dorian arriving but its not time to pull the trigger on the Florida forecast yet.

I notice that Erin seems to be backing up a tad this AM early. I wonder if there is a chance of a Fujiwhara effect going to take hold.

As far as the current path, I noticed yesterday and posted it looked to me that Dorian would be much closer to 65W on its way by PR while the models were calling for a left of PR plot. I opined this would lead to a stronger than Cat 1 storm as it approached CONUS especially once it hit the Gulf Stream and get super charged. I am still of that opinion as the water there is 31c and the atmosphere is water laden. My feeling is the Cat 2 is under done, perhaps 3, low 4 before it hits land somewhere. Yesterday I surmised Dorian would not get past 80W and may in fact make a rare landing in Ga. Without detail as to where and how strong the ridge will be makes that a WAG at best. If that ridge gets stronger than I originally surmised it would be, this has the potential of a Dora type landing, somewhere just south of Jax coming in from the east which would be devastating for Jax and Nassau County to the North especially with the seasonal high tides forecast. So, while this TS is what it is, the game is afoot and everyone in East Fl above say Palm Beach must be on full alert. My family is making precautionary evac plans this AM for a Sat morning departure.

The low level circ of Erin is well north of the convection. Check IR or wait for visible. The center is already moving north right on schedule. The mid level energy has been forecast to decouple and get blown sw.

[AubreyStorm]

Its looking extremely close to a hurricane on radar.. if not already there.. hints of a proto eye on IR ad well.

OMG! Direct hit to PR

[Aric Dunn]

Recon is at operational altitude.. we will know in the next 30 min..

I say pressure 995 and 75 mph.

[Nimbus]

you say its not the ridge breaking down than you say "causes the ridging to break down". we are talking the same thing so lets simplify it, the gfs has an escape route, the euro doesnt...we both agree that escape route wont be there and the EC of florida is in jeopardy of a hit and i will take it a step further, there will be another landfall somewhere on the gulf coast, florida isnt exactly the premier shredder in the atlantic basin, katrinas journey over the everglades did next to nothing to reduce its intensity

Erin has come into play which is the primary cause for the model uncertainty.
Later this morning I'm going to morph together the latest runs to see how the ridge forecast is evolving.

Currently appears to be ample time for a robust ridge to build in between Erin exiting the stage and Dorian arriving but its not ti,me to pull the trigger on the Florida forecast yet.

I notice that Erin seems to be backing up a tad this AM early. I wonder if there is a chance of a Fujiwhara effect going to take hold.

As far as the current path, I noticed yesterday and posted it looked to me that Dorian would be much closer to 65W on its way by PR while the models were calling for a left of PR plot. I opined this would lead to a stronger than Cat 1 storm as it approached CONUS especially once it hit the Gulf Stream and get super charged. I am still of that opinion as the water there is 31c and the atmosphere is water laden. My feeling is the Cat 2 is under done, perhaps 3, low 4 before it hits land somewhere. Yesterday I surmised Dorian would not get past 80W and may in fact make a rare landing in Ga. Without detail as to where and how strong the ridge will be makes that a WAG at best. If that ridge gets stronger than I originally surmised it would be, this has the potential of a Dora type landing, somewhere just south of Jax coming in from the east which would be devastating for Jax and Nassau County to the North especially with the seasonal high tides forecast. So, while this TS is what it is, the game is afoot and everyone in East Fl above say Palm Beach must be on full alert. My family is making precautionary evac plans this AM for a Sat morning departure.

Intensity forecast has favored a major hurricane for a while now.

[AdamFirst]

Puerto Rico will have its first test of its rebuilt power grid today...I'm hoping they did a good job, the folks on the island have gone through far enough.

[tolakram]

SLIDER visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1230.8537902832031&y=972.8961944580078

COD Visible
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[KWT]

Hopefuly the core ends up just to the east of PR, still going to be a rainy and windy day regardless of the track of the core, but PR could do without a direct hit by a strengthening TC.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning everyone.

Well it is becoming more and more apparent that the potential and percentages of Dorian striking the CONUS as a major hurricane has significantly increased for this holiday weekend.

There are so many things in play with the track and intensity concerning Dorian which still are at least a few more days to get clarity from guidance.

Dorian is one of the toughest cyclones I have seen in quite some time and maintaining itself and its structure quite well, given such an hostile environment he has been up against especially the past 24 hours. Dorian is a small, compact cyclone and he has been able to shield itself against an overall dry air environment all throughout its life cycle very admirably to this juncture.

Eyewall taking shape nicely this morning and with Dorian only scrapping the extreme Eastern end of Puerto Rico, It is looking now that Dorian is about to soon get away from the hindering influences of the Eastern Caribbean in the next 24 hours.

Looking ahead, conditions look very ideal with very low vertical wind shear, and very warm ssts, and a much more moisture- rich environment all are awaiting Dorian when he approaches the Bahamas into the weekend. The potential is all there for Dorian to not only intensify, but RI this weekend. Dorian has the potential to become a major Cat 3 or higher tropiical cyclone this weekend. Intensity forecasts with tropical cyclones are always the most challenging in forecasting, and this is not any different in this case.

So many things to watch the next several days, but everyone, not only in Flotoda, but the SE. U.S.Coast needs to be vigilant. GFS potentially is indicating a weakness developing in the ridge at the end of the next 120 hours, which may allow Dorian to drift north up along the coast late in the period . EURO and its ensembles insist that the Ridge will hold firm and Dorian will landfall over the East Central Florida Coast and continue into the GOM.

It is going to be some long, long days and nights ahead for me monitoring this situation and many of us as Dorian makes his approach this week. I really, really hope that people all up and along the Southeast U.S. Coast are making all necessary plans to prepare and take action NOW. This is a very potentially dangerous tropical cyclone which is taking shape this holiday weekend.

[tolakram]

It's bringing in some dry air from the south. No surprise, but hopefully will stall any short term intensification.

[toad strangler]

Erin has come into play which is the primary cause for the model uncertainty.
Later this morning I'm going to morph together the latest runs to see how the ridge forecast is evolving.

Currently appears to be ample time for a robust ridge to build in between Erin exiting the stage and Dorian arriving but its not ti,me to pull the trigger on the Florida forecast yet.

I

Intensity forecast has favored a major hurricane for a while now.

Never believed those tiny little vorts modeled for days.

[Aric Dunn]

Or 1002 lol

Though the pressure gradient is pretty tight. Could be some higher winds on the east side.

[AutoPenalti]

Good morning y’all,

Looks like after some model disputes, we still have disputes about where this may be headed. I said yesterday in the model thread that this could be a coup for either one of these models. The GFS has had tendencies to break down the ridge faster giving Dorian a shot at escaping the east coast. However, the Euro has also had tendencies to overdo the 500mb heights, but wild cards on the table are the ULL’s to the east and west of Dorian and now newly formed TS Erin. The ULL to the west of Dorian is something I want to see over the course of today on WV imagery just to see how it’s been moving, as well as the notable MLC from Erin that’s forecasted to drop down south a bit this afternoon into tomorrow.

[GCANE]

Looks like 1002 mb per Recon
17.1N 64.0W

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like 1002 mb per Recon

Yeah though it drops from 1010 to 1002 in a short distance.

They should probably find some decent winds out there.

[USVIKimmie]

Its looking extremely close to a hurricane on radar.. if not already there.. hints of a proto eye on IR ad well.

OMG! Direct hit to PR

More like strafing the VI first

[NotSparta]

The problem with that impressive outflow Dorian had yesterday - it seems it was enough to weaken/push away that ULL that was going to shear the storm

[Hypercane_Kyle]

06z HWRF a decent shift south. Makes landfall at the Kennedy Space Center with 120 knot winds.

Wouldn't be good news for our space program.

[AubreyStorm]

Maybe change direction to ONO?

[chris_fit]

60knt FL Level wind found - Def stronger than yesterday