ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Kat5]

ICON a bit further north but Ridge is stout out ahead of it.

Not a fan of the ICON, but it’s gaining onto its current initial strength run per run. Might head towards central Florida in this run.

[SoupBone]

ICON a bit further north but Ridge is stout out ahead of it.

Forgive me mods for my momentary lapse of judgement, but I can't resist. ICON is quickly becoming a thorn this season. Anyone else stuck on hour 12 of this ICON run?

[AutoPenalti]

WSW dip on the ICON, seems a hair north of last run.

[supercane4867]

This is hilarious

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166819992043753472

[Nimbus]

WSW dip on the ICON, seems a hair north of last run.

18z ICON Isobars show a tiny bit stronger ridge with a low in the gulf.

[AutoPenalti]

This is hilarious

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166819992043753472

That scenario would likely slice Florida in half.

[NFLnut]

I hate to signal my ignorance (although I seem to have no problem doing that almost every day ..) but I am not good at reading these maps. Even after all of these years in cane alley. But everyone is referring to the "death ridge." Can someone please tell me where is this death ridge? Are you talking about the 1016 ridge extending from Texas to the Florida panhandle around 120 hrs? Just want to make sure I am understanding the discussion with all of these models.

[caneseddy]

At 102 hours, ICON is due west making a beeline for Miami and strengthening

[Steve]

Icon at 102 hours seems to be making a bee line toward Miami.

[Javlin]

WSW dip on the ICON, seems a hair north of last run.

You notice @30hrs due W symbolism of a LP area 1012mb as it moves W so does Dorian(@60hr) the path of least resistance?

[AutoPenalti]

Okay ICON, I’m not a fan of you right now. That’s a Cat 4 bee line towards Miami

[caneseddy]

Icon at 102 hours seems to be making a bee line toward Miami.

End of the run shows it taking a WSW dip but offshore Miami-Dade County as a major...looks like its delaying landfall until late Monday evening or early Tuesday morning

[Steve]

Icon at 102 hours seems to be making a bee line toward Miami.

End of the run shows it taking a WSW dip but offshore Miami-Dade County as a major...looks like its delaying landfall until late Monday evening or early Tuesday morning

Yeah, it loses +/- 2/10ths of a degree between 102 hours and 120 hours. I didn't plot the centers at other points, but it likes that nudge to just south of west. GFS should be running any minute.

[FLpanhandle91]

GFS initialized far too weak. Garbage can run?

[Steve]

GFS initialized far too weak. Garbage can run?

It’s hard to tell because unless you have access to higher resolutions, it’s usually going to be off.

[SunnyThoughts]

GFS initialized far too weak. Garbage can run?

I'm sure it'll catch up...give it 36 hours. Lets see who's soul the GFS tries to kill.

[beachman80]

ICON very nearly stalls this thing. This is a scenario I am worried about. Meteoroligist here in Tampa says steering currents could become weak down the road.

[FLpanhandle91]

Ridge builds a little further south and is a tad stronger this run through 78h. I expect this run will take Dorian closer to Daytona.

[supercane4867]

Still too far north. Typical poleward bias from the GFS

[jlauderdal]

the 1030 high is in place at 90 hours and drifting east at 96 hours, no escape route, the ridge is stout on the gfs and euro and shos no signs of eroding