WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

Pinhole eye forming LOL

[Hayabusa]

TY 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 6 October 2019

<Analysis at 21 UTC, 6 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°00' (15.0°)
E150°25' (150.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

[Highteeld]

Loop of the some of the better microwave passes:

[Tailspin]

[Hayabusa]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10061924
SATCON: MSLP = 964 hPa MSW = 90 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 90.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 86 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 250 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 986 hPa 61 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT062110
CIMSS AMSU: 950 hPa 111 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10061924
ATMS: 975.0 hPa 67.9 knots Date: 10061454
SSMIS: 975.0 hPa 67.9 knots Date: 10061454
CIRA ATMS: 991 hPa 46 knots Date:

[Tailspin]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... Table.html

[Highteeld]

Never seen anything like this

[1900hurricane]

Probably time to switch from curved band to embedded center for the next fix by the agencies.

https://i.imgur.com/s5PinqC.gif

Denied by JTWC.

TPPN10 PGTW 062122

A. TYPHOON 20W (E OF GUAM)

B. 06/2050Z

C. 15.03N

D. 150.02E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5 ADDED .5 FOR ALL WHITE BAND. MET IS 4.0.
PT IS 3.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/1550Z 14.87N 151.88E AMS2
06/1742Z 14.92N 151.20E SSMS


MARTIN

[Highteeld]

Can this support a CDG?

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/2019100612.91212.stuve10.parc3.gif
And am I reading it right? TP is at 100 mb / temp is between -83 or -84

That's way up there. Storm on approach will likely modify/lift it even more.

[Highteeld]

Eye feature visible now.

[1900hurricane]

It's probably passing north of Saipan, but with it still riding along near 15ºN now, I wouldn't feel too comfortable until it's actually a good deal north of the islands latitude.

[Highteeld]

Eye feature visible now.

https://weather-models.info/latest/images/himawari/target/vis/22/222730-vis-color.png

Would estimate around 85 knots right now. JMA at 70 knots (2 hours ago) 10 min avg would be close given current satellite trends. AMSU still running hot, which is screw up SatCon a bit.

[Tailspin]

Probably time to switch from curved band to embedded center for the next fix by the agencies.

https://i.imgur.com/s5PinqC.gif

Denied by JTWC.

TPPN10 PGTW 062122

A. TYPHOON 20W (E OF GUAM)

B. 06/2050Z

C. 15.03N

D. 150.02E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5 ADDED .5 FOR ALL WHITE BAND. MET IS 4.0.
PT IS 3.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/1550Z 14.87N 151.88E AMS2
06/1742Z 14.92N 151.20E SSMS


MARTIN

Yeah just eyeballing many hours ago it look like there was a embedded center. Tbo i expected too see a entry level cat3 today.

[mrbagyo]

I see 45 knots pixels

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1180975910125805568

[Highteeld]

To hell with embedded center at this point. There's going to be no choice but go straight from Curved Band to Eye as the Scene Type by the next update at this rate. HA!

[1900hurricane]

I realize this is a pipe dream since there is a struggle to keep the one NEXRAD on Guam operating normally sometimes (what a debacle with Yutu that was last year), but I really wish there could be a second NEXRAD on Saipan. That would really extend Mariana radar coverage.

[euro6208]

Good morning Hagibis!

[mrbagyo]

I realize this is a pipe dream since there is a struggle to keep the one NEXRAD on Guam operating normally sometimes (what a debacle with Yutu that was last year), but I really wish there could be a second NEXRAD on Saipan. That would really extend Mariana radar coverage.

I second that statement. Btw, what's the max range of this kind of radar. Some of radars used by CMA can cover 460 kms

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/2QnxtmP
2hr loop.