ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sma10]

11am NHC 5 day point is just a smidge south of 5am. Just offshore Cape Canaveral.

You can tell how uncertain the NHC is right now in the track given they are still not showing a landfall.

Pretty sure the Keys and southern tip of FL will return to the cone

[USTropics]

For anyone using GR Analysis software, you can use PR radar to capture Dorian now:


Comparison to past 40 minutes of visible frames:

[AdamFirst]

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands.

[wx98]

I am on the NHC website and don't see where they have given the 11am update.

The forecast advisory was released at 9:53/10:53

[Highteeld]

Very close to being a hurricane. Radar sampling hurricane force winds around 10,000 feet

[chris_fit]

Very interesting they have it weakening as it approaches?

72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

[Michele B]

Thankfully, Dorian has basically been a non event for us on St Maarten.
OUr sister island of Saba, 40 miles South is a different story.
This is a video of flooding at Fort Bay, Saba, occurring there now.
Even a tropical storm can give us huge problems on our islands.
https://www.facebook.com/721news/videos ... 690130059/

Wow, that looks dangerous. Please, stay safe.

[HurricaneEric]

11am NHC 5 day point is just a smidge south of 5am. Just offshore Cape Canaveral.

You can tell how uncertain the NHC is right now in the track given they are still not showing a landfall.

Pretty sure the Keys and southern tip of FL will return to the cone

Yes, Miami Dade fully back in the southern edge of the cone, whereas last two cones had the southern edge over Broward/Palm Beach.

[GCANE]

Rotating eyewall towers clearly seen on Visible Satellite.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Very interesting they have it weakening as it approaches?

72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

Likely just being conservative as the storm will be nearly over land at that forecast plot.

[jlauderdal]

Avila is usually conservative on intensity, he went to a cat 3, beware...remember the cone is nothing more than statistics, sofa not out of it by any stretch, the next euro run if still south of guidance will push the NHC track south..im surprised they didnt go further on this one but they want to see this next euro run for sure before going to far, its excellent forecasting as usual by nhc..euro goes with a really hard turn so i understand the nhc not going to far until they see another run of the euro

[StPeteMike]

Very interesting they have it weakening as it approaches?

72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

Found it odd as well. There’s been times that they’ll decrease the predicted strength before landfall on other storms and never made sense to me. Especially when no models are hinting at the same thing and factors like shear or a cold front aren’t expected. Might be playing it safe.

[sma10]

"Beware of Bullish Avila"

[Jonny]

Category 3 status by Sunday according to TWC.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1166728598092431360

[supercane4867]

I believe the forecast intensities for the next 24 hours are too low. Convective bursts going around the eyewall could be an indication of RI

[snoop9928]

As of now, I have a flight out of ATL early Monday afternoon. Any idea if Dorian will cause issues up in Atlanta by then? Can't afford to miss flight or be delayed so may have to drive to Nashville instead. Thanks

[Steve]

As of now, I have a flight out of ATL early Monday afternoon. Any idea if Dorian will cause issues up in Atlanta by then? Can't afford to miss flight or be delayed so may have to drive to Nashville instead. Thanks

It's too early to know how fast it comes up and where.

[gatorcane]

Wouldn’t a deeper more intense hurricane end up further south into Florida?

[1900hurricane]

Very interesting they have it weakening as it approaches?

72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

It's actually a mistake. From the Forecast advisory:

000
WTNT25 KNHC 281503 CCA
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2019

CORRECTED DAY 5 INTENSITY FORECAST TO 100 KT.