ATL: DORIAN - Models

[b0tzy29]

Latest Euro - This would be insane! Wow - god speed to everyone down there

[jlauderdal]

dorian really slowed down after landfall, central ga at 168h..still a low in ga at 180 hours and has moved a little south

[Blinhart]

What are the going odds of second landfall on the ConUS??? LMAO.

10-30% - from Mid Texas Coast to Louisiana/Mississippi Line
50-70% - Louisiana/Mississippi Line to Pensacola
10-30% - Pensacola to Big Bend
0-30% - No Second Landfall

that is what I'm going with, right now. I know it is over 100% but this is not an ordinary storm

[NFLnut]

jax landfall in 5 days...splitting the difference between the euro and gfs for a track is giving too much weight to the gfs, still have to respect the gfs but not 50/50..more like 70/30

GFS track is about 75-100 miles south of Jax. More like Daytona Beach.

That's what I see too. Maybe Ormond at the most, but I'm seeing Daytona or even the inlet between NSB and Port Orange. Definitely not Jax. Still, I think the GFS is too far north based on all of the others and its own ensemble. We shall see ..

[floridasun78]

my weather man in miami saying he like Euro nit have better record other models

[SunnyThoughts]

What are the going odds of second landfall on the ConUS??? LMAO.

10-30% - from Mid Texas Coast to Louisiana/Mississippi Line
50-70% - Louisiana/Mississippi Line to Pensacola
10-30% - Pensacola to Big Bend
0-30% - No Second Landfall

that is what I'm going with, right now. I know it is over 100% but this is not an ordinary storm

Lol, thanks for putting me into two of the catagories right in the middle

[beachman80]

jax landfall in 5 days...splitting the difference between the euro and gfs for a track is giving too much weight to the gfs, still have to respect the gfs but not 50/50..more like 70/30

GFS track is about 75-100 miles south of Jax. More like Daytona Beach.

That's what I see too. Maybe Ormond at the most, but I'm seeing Daytona or even the inlet between NSB and Port Orange. Definitely not Jax. Still, I think the GFS is too far north based on all of the others and its own ensemble. We shall see ..

Agree. I think this could be Miami or Palm Beach. I'm also interested to see what happens if it gets into the Gulf as I've see everything from quick turns back into the west coast, to gradual turns north to NW beeline for Louisiana or Tx to the system even stalling out with no steering.

[Blinhart]

What are the going odds of second landfall on the ConUS??? LMAO.

10-30% - from Mid Texas Coast to Louisiana/Mississippi Line
50-70% - Louisiana/Mississippi Line to Pensacola
10-30% - Pensacola to Big Bend
0-30% - No Second Landfall

that is what I'm going with, right now. I know it is over 100% but this is not an ordinary storm

Lol, thanks for putting me into two of the catagories right in the middle

Well with the current models, it is looking like Pensacola is in the hot zone right now.

[gatorcane]

This map tells the story. With so much uncertainty, I like seeing the ensembles plotted as well. Note the stronger ensembles are the southern ones through South Florida:

[NFLnut]

GFS track is about 75-100 miles south of Jax. More like Daytona Beach.

That's what I see too. Maybe Ormond at the most, but I'm seeing Daytona or even the inlet between NSB and Port Orange. Definitely not Jax. Still, I think the GFS is too far north based on all of the others and its own ensemble. We shall see ..

Agree. I think this could be Miami or Palm Beach. I'm also interested to see what happens if it gets into the Gulf as I've see everything from quick turns back into the west coast, to gradual turns north to NW beeline for Louisiana or Tx to the system even stalling out with no steering.

No. I'm saying that the current GFS shows landfall at the inlet. But I'm thinking (or maybe hoping with the models southern trends so far today) landfall will probably happen no further north than Vero. Just based upon the EURO and the ICON, for all they're worth. UK also shows ~Palm Beach. Still, plenty of time for swings either way this far out.

[fci]

The GFS op and legacy GFS continues to be north of the GFS ensemble mean and Euro ensemble mean. For our sake here in South Florida I hope it is right but not sure it is. Stronger means more west this time. It may end up much stronger than what the GFS shows.

Pretty rare for a major hurricane landfall from the east north of Martin County, I would think the GFS will continue to shift south, but perhaps we will see Dorian bunk climatology and hit Central Florida from the east.

Exactly.
Hurricanes just haven't hit the Upper Florida Coast from the East. Slide up the coast, sure; but not from the east.
Would be REAL surprised if that happened, same with Georgia Coast

[Hypercane_Kyle]

While the GFS track certainly isn't impossible and NFL needs to keep a seriously close eye on the progression of Dorian, I think CFL/SFL is more likely. I really don't think the GFS has a good handle on the ridging like the ECMWF/UKMET do. Was way too far east with Irma amd completely failed with Sandy for this reason. It's gotten better though in more recent years, but still lagging behind its European counterparts.

[fci]

This map tells the story. With so much uncertainty, I like seeing the ensembles plotted as well. Note the stronger ensembles are the southern ones through South Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/XvTbf0F9/storm-05-ens.gif

I'm with you on this one Chris.
Somewhere from Martin County south or a recurve.
Since the ridge is supposed to be real potent, the second option seems off the table for now.
This smells of the turn and then dip WSW or SW; like Katrina and others....

[NFLnut]

This map tells the story. With so much uncertainty, I like seeing the ensembles plotted as well. Note the stronger ensembles are the southern ones through South Florida:

For many years, that SWFMD spaghetti map was my go-to. So many other sources for spaghetti-os these days, but I still go to the SWFMD map. It's the only place that I have found that includes the UKMET (although I'm sure there are others .. I just haven't found).

[Craters]

my thoughts last night were upper texas coast... but if it got trapped under the death ridge. then plow into mexico lol

Are still thinking the upper Texas Coast?

There is currently, nothing, indicating a Texas landfall (a few ensembles do point in that direction though), with the Death Ridge firmly in place over us. However, current conditions do not equal what could happen in a week. Still, the Death Ridge is a player in this as well, which is why you aren't hearing a whole lot of Texas chatter.

Another reason why the Texas chatter is so low, SoupBone, is because most of the rest of us are busy chugging Maalox.

[SouthFLTropics]

Anyone have any info on the 18z Euro? Curious to know if it is standing it's ground.

[NFLnut]

Are still thinking the upper Texas Coast?

There is currently, nothing, indicating a Texas landfall (a few ensembles do point in that direction though), with the Death Ridge firmly in place over us. However, current conditions do not equal what could happen in a week. Still, the Death Ridge is a player in this as well, which is why you aren't hearing a whole lot of Texas chatter.

Another reason why the Texas chatter is so low, SoupBone, is because most of the rest of us are busy chugging Maalox.

Us Floridians put down the Maalox last night. It's straight rot-gut whiskey from here out ..

[NFLnut]

Anyone have any info on the 18z Euro? Curious to know if it is standing it's ground.

IIRC, the EURO only runs at 00z and 12z. Another few hours of biting our nails yet ..

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone have any info on the 18z Euro? Curious to know if it is standing it's ground.

IIRC, the EURO only runs at 00z and 12z. Another few hours of biting our nails yet ..

there is a 18z and 06z euro as well.

[AutoPenalti]

Anyone have any info on the 18z Euro? Curious to know if it is standing it's ground.

IIRC, the EURO only runs at 00z and 12z. Another few hours of biting our nails yet ..

There’s a 18z and 06z but that’s for premium members.