ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Mouton]

The GFS op and legacy GFS continues to be north of the GFS ensemble mean and Euro ensemble mean. For our sake here in South Florida I hope it is right but not sure it is. Stronger means more west this time. It may end up much stronger than what the GFS shows.

Pretty rare for a major hurricane landfall from the east north of Martin County, I would think the GFS will continue to shift south, but perhaps we will see Dorian bunk climatology and hit Central Florida from the east.

Exactly.
Hurricanes just haven't hit the Upper Florida Coast from the East. Slide up the coast, sure; but not from the east.
Would be REAL surprised if that happened, same with Georgia Coast

Check out Dora in 64. Cat 4 dropped to cat 2 at landfall in
Pointe vedra. Direct shot from east.

[NFLnut]

Anyone have any info on the 18z Euro? Curious to know if it is standing it's ground.

IIRC, the EURO only runs at 00z and 12z. Another few hours of biting our nails yet ..

there is a 18z and 06z euro as well.

Thanks! I guess TropicalTidbits only puts up the 00z and the 12z so I thought that was it.

[Kazmit]

Seems like most models take this into the gulf. That’s going to be a whole ‘nother situation to deal with, especially if it tracks further south/west.

[beachman80]

Local meteorologist made an interesting fact earlier tonight.

There hasn't been a cat. 3 or higher to hit any location from Daytona to Jacksonville head on since 1851.

That is incredible.

[DESTRUCTION5]

No major (Category 3+) hurricane on record (since 1851) has made landfall along the east coast of Florida north of Stuart, FL

[Cataegis96]

18z HWRF already down to 976 mb in 24 hours... yikes. Also a bit northeast of recent runs.

[NFLnut]

Anyone have any info on the 18z Euro? Curious to know if it is standing it's ground.

IIRC, the EURO only runs at 00z and 12z. Another few hours of biting our nails yet ..

There’s a 18z and 06z but that’s for premium members.

So .. you could share it with us. But then, you'd have to kill us.

[KC7NEC]

No major (Category 3+) hurricane on record (since 1851) has made landfall along the east coast of Florida north of Stuart, FL

interesting. I placed my guess after advisory 17 at St Lucie just north of there

[DESTRUCTION5]

No major (Category 3+) hurricane on record (since 1851) has made landfall along the east coast of Florida north of Stuart, FL

interesting. I placed my guess after advisory 17 at St Lucie just north of there

Basically if you believe this will remain Cat 3 or higher landfall north of there is like being hit by lightning.

[DESTRUCTION5]

No major (Category 3+) hurricane on record (since 1851) has made landfall along the east coast of Florida north of Stuart, FL

interesting. I placed my guess after advisory 17 at St Lucie just north of there

Basically if you believe this will remain Cat 3 or higher at landfall north of there is like being hit by lightning.

[Jr0d]

Local meteorologist made an interesting fact earlier tonight.

There hasn't been a cat. 3 or higher to hit any location from Daytona to Jacksonville head on since 1851.

That is incredible.

I believe that goes further south down to Sebastian. Brevard country has never been hit my a major hurricane since record keeping began.

[weathermimmi]

So I been a member for a few years and mostly enjoy reading everything, but I’m between Pensacola and Panama City and wondering what category is this showing at the second landfall? I know it’s early and a lot is in play but hoping it will disrupt it some ??

[CronkPSU]

Local meteorologist made an interesting fact earlier tonight.

There hasn't been a cat. 3 or higher to hit any location from Daytona to Jacksonville head on since 1851.

That is incredible.

I believe that goes further south down to Sebastian. Brevard country has never been hit my a major hurricane since record keeping began.

that just seems crazy considering some of the monster storms that have hit SC and NC and heck even further north

[Steve]

So I been a member for a few years and mostly enjoy reading everything, but I’m between Pensacola and Panama City and wondering what category is this showing at the second landfall? I know it’s early and a lot is in play but hoping it will disrupt it some ??

Which model? NHC doesn't have it that far out.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

There is currently, nothing, indicating a Texas landfall (a few ensembles do point in that direction though), with the Death Ridge firmly in place over us. However, current conditions do not equal what could happen in a week. Still, the Death Ridge is a player in this as well, which is why you aren't hearing a whole lot of Texas chatter.

Another reason why the Texas chatter is so low, SoupBone, is because most of the rest of us are busy chugging Maalox.

Us Floridians put down the Maalox last night. It's straight rot-gut whiskey from here out ..

Fireball

[fci]

Pretty rare for a major hurricane landfall from the east north of Martin County, I would think the GFS will continue to shift south, but perhaps we will see Dorian bunk climatology and hit Central Florida from the east.

Exactly.
Hurricanes just haven't hit the Upper Florida Coast from the East. Slide up the coast, sure; but not from the east.
Would be REAL surprised if that happened, same with Georgia Coast

Check out Dora in 64. Cat 4 dropped to cat 2 at landfall in
Pointe vedra. Direct shot from east.

Sure but: The strongest effect on Jacksonville was from Hurricane Dora in 1964, the only recorded storm to hit the First Coast with sustained hurricane force winds.
The ONLY recorded Hurricane to hit and it was 55 years ago.

[norva13x]

Exactly.
Hurricanes just haven't hit the Upper Florida Coast from the East. Slide up the coast, sure; but not from the east.
Would be REAL surprised if that happened, same with Georgia Coast

Check out Dora in 64. Cat 4 dropped to cat 2 at landfall in
Pointe vedra. Direct shot from east.

Sure but: The strongest effect on Jacksonville was from Hurricane Dora in 1964, the only recorded storm to hit the First Coast with sustained hurricane force winds.
The ONLY recorded Hurricane to hit and it was 55 years ago.

So you are saying it is overdue?

[Steve]

Ignore this post. This is the 12z.

The HWRF hits around Vero Beach/Fort Pierce as a 940mb hurricane at 102 hours which is 1pm Sunday afternoon. It likes a more NW climb and is faster than other models.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=102

[Frank P]

So I been a member for a few years and mostly enjoy reading everything, but I’m between Pensacola and Panama City and wondering what category is this showing at the second landfall? I know it’s early and a lot is in play but hoping it will disrupt it some ??

Which model? NHC doesn't have it that far out.

The 12z Euro nails that area with a 961 mb storm... not something you want to come to fruition for sure!

[Bocadude85]

Check out Dora in 64. Cat 4 dropped to cat 2 at landfall in
Pointe vedra. Direct shot from east.

Sure but: The strongest effect on Jacksonville was from Hurricane Dora in 1964, the only recorded storm to hit the First Coast with sustained hurricane force winds.
The ONLY recorded Hurricane to hit and it was 55 years ago.

So you are saying it is overdue?

Anything is possible when it comes to hurricanes. It’s just exceedingly rare to get a major hurricane landfall north or Stuart, could Dorian change this? Absolutely but it would be record breaking...interesting days ahead