ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Steve]

So I been a member for a few years and mostly enjoy reading everything, but I’m between Pensacola and Panama City and wondering what category is this showing at the second landfall? I know it’s early and a lot is in play but hoping it will disrupt it some ??

Which model? NHC doesn't have it that far out.

The 12z Euro nails that area with a 961 mb storm... not something you want to come to fruition for sure!

So 961 is generally range of a Cat 3.

[SunnyThoughts]

So I been a member for a few years and mostly enjoy reading everything, but I’m between Pensacola and Panama City and wondering what category is this showing at the second landfall? I know it’s early and a lot is in play but hoping it will disrupt it some ??

That run of the Euro showed Dorian at 960mb at landfall...so Im thinking at least a cat 2...wouldn't surprise me if its a catagory 3 though. Always prepare for a catagory higher than you think it will be, just to be safe.

[weathermimmi]

I will have to look at all the models and see, I guess the better question is how many days out until you think the models will come together, it just seems that the entire state of Florida could have some effect weather it’s rain or wind .

[norva13x]

Sure but: The strongest effect on Jacksonville was from Hurricane Dora in 1964, the only recorded storm to hit the First Coast with sustained hurricane force winds.
The ONLY recorded Hurricane to hit and it was 55 years ago.

So you are saying it is overdue?

Anything is possible when it comes to hurricanes. It’s just exceedingly rare to get a major hurricane landfall north or Stuart, could Dorian change this? Absolutely but it would be record breaking...interesting days ahead

I was being partially facetious but I agree 100%. Central FL is still very much in play and just because something is unlikely doesn't make it impossible, the only thing that matters are the conditions right now and in the next 5 days.

[Bocadude85]

The HWRF hits around Vero Beach/Fort Pierce as a 940mb hurricane at 102 hours which is 1pm Sunday afternoon. It likes a more NW climb and is faster than other models.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=102

That’s the 12z run, the 18z is still running. At hour 51 currently

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=05L&pkg=ref&runtime=2019082818&fh=51

[Steve]

HMON is out to 78 hours and is at 27N, 75.7W. It's not unusual for the hurricane models to parrot a lot of what the GFS does. I can't remember if they still run them off GFS grids or whatever, but you have to think so considering they and the GFS are the northern outliers at this point.

[Steve]

The HWRF hits around Vero Beach/Fort Pierce as a 940mb hurricane at 102 hours which is 1pm Sunday afternoon. It likes a more NW climb and is faster than other models.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=102

That’s the 12z run, the 18z is still running. At hour 51 currently

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=05L&pkg=ref&runtime=2019082818&fh=51

Yeah, I have no idea why it went to the 12z as I wasn't looking at that. But it's been jumpy over at TT I guess with all the traffic. I have it to 57 hours. So we have a baseline of the 12z to see what the 18z does when it finishes its run.

[Frank P]

18z HWRF stronger and a tad to the NW of 12z... 965 mb at h57

[bella_may]

Hmon much further south

[chaser1]

So I been a member for a few years and mostly enjoy reading everything, but I’m between Pensacola and Panama City and wondering what category is this showing at the second landfall? I know it’s early and a lot is in play but hoping it will disrupt it some ??

For the moment, I don't see the Euros depiction of the mid level heights being so strong to cause a due West (or WSW) motion or drive Dorian farther south then W. Palm Beach... nor quite as far west as Pensacola. As for 2nd landfall intensity? Hard to quite say but I'd project somewhere between a Cat. 2 - Cat. 4. This more to do with over all synopyics and/or potential for a little increased upper level shear. Its prior Florida landfall would probably only cause a short-term disruption before restrengthening fairly quickly over the warm GOM SST's if all other conditions remained largely favorable

[Frank P]

HWRF down to 961 mb at H63

[Ivanhater]

So far, track close to Hurricane Erin 1995 is coming to mind.

[Siker]

HMON insists this hits shear and dry air in the Bahamas. It’s all on its own in this depiction.

[supercane4867]

HWRF trying to do an eyewall replacement at 63hr

[Weatherboy1]

Doing a model compare at Tropical Tidbits, it looked like both the legacy GFS and new GFS shifted landfall point SLIGHTLY south, probably 15-20 miles on the FL coast

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON is taking a weaker Dorian on a beeline towards the Sebastian Inlet.

[Frank P]

HMON insists this hits shear and dry air in the Bahamas. It’s all on its own in this depiction.

Definitely weakening going on with this run.. 974 mb to 993 then Starts falling again 985 as it approaches the coast

[AutoPenalti]

Isn’t HMON a lower resolution model?

[hurricaneCW]

HMON insists this hits shear and dry air in the Bahamas. It’s all on its own in this depiction.

Definitely weakening going on with this run.. 974 mb to 993 then Starts falling again 985 as it approaches the coast

What a joke of a model, there's zero chance this is correct. This will be a Cat 3/4 at LF nothing less, models are completely underestimating even Dorian's current intensity.

[supercane4867]

RI starts on HWRF at 69hr. Could see pressure down to 930s this run