ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HWRF can be nuts, but we all saw what happened with Michael last year. We knew the bar was high, we just didn't know it would be *that* high.

[weathermimmi]

So many people headed out to the holiday weekend in that area and a cat 5 is definitely not in their plans. If that model runs true it will be a game changer for that area, Panama City still struggling after hurricane michael with cat 5 winds, it was unbelievable

[SouthFLTropics]

I hope it verifies, Cat 5s are so rare and beautiful to see.

Easy for you to say pal...You're in NJ and not staring down the barrel of a loaded gun!!! The little spot it's headed to on the coastline...that's where I live.

Where are you exactly located?

Port St. Lucie...Treasure Coast...As in the general vicinity that the HWRF wants to destroy.

[SunnyThoughts]

AFter watching the HWRF runs yesterday...I was wondering if it would end up showing a sub 900mb run...this might be the one. ( not that anyone believes that to be possible)

[JPmia]

This HWRF run is what I've been afraid of.. Dorian will earn retirement for sure. As an Andrew and Katrina survivor and Fort Lauderdale resident, I am fully on the look out for a SW dive at some point. Not forecasting it, but I just have a hunch. See UKMET and EURO from today. I am reminded of the often forgotten 1947 Major Hurricane that struck here. It was a Cat 5 over the Bahamas, but weakened to a Cat 4 just before landfall.

[STRiZZY]

HWRF can be nuts, but we all saw what happened with Michael last year. We knew the bar was high, we just didn't know it would be *that* high.

True but if you predict a "happening" alllll the time eventually you're going to be right lol.

[Bocadude85]

12z Euro and 18Z HWRF are fairly similar in track at day 4, only about 100 miles apart

[AutoPenalti]

Despite the erratic intensity, it’s a bit further north and slower from last run.

[Frank P]

18z HWRF, due W at 87hr?

Perhaps, still climbing lat though... might be just north of due west... but not WNW...mo

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HWRF can be nuts, but we all saw what happened with Michael last year. We knew the bar was high, we just didn't know it would be *that* high.

True but if you predict a "happening" alllll the time eventually you're going to be right lol.

The return time for a Cat 5 USA landfall makes having 2 in less than a year incredibly unlikely for sure. I think 125mph is a decent guess right now.

[SouthFLTropics]

Where are you exactly located?

Port St. Lucie...Treasure Coast...As in the general vicinity that the HWRF wants to destroy.

I’d be extremely concerned if I were you. Just being honest.

Watching closely...I'm a native Floridian and have seen this movie and danced to this song before. Just take a look at my signature line.

SFT

[AutoPenalti]

Guys, once again, please keep the side-chatter at a minimum.

[SFLcane]

18z euro anyone??

[ronjon]

18z HWRF looks like the Cape...slightly north of 12z run.

[canes92]

Doesn't HWRF always post stronger hurricane predictions than the other models?

[STRiZZY]

Doesn't HWRF always post stronger hurricanes than everyone else?

quite often yes.

[Frank P]

Despite the erratic intensity, it’s a bit further north from last run.

HWRF 12z was at 27.5 N at landfall, HWRZ 18z is at 28.3 N at h99, not quite on land but heading north of due west... so slight shift north

[p1nheadlarry]

HWRF can be nuts, but we all saw what happened with Michael last year. We knew the bar was high, we just didn't know it would be *that* high.

Hell most of the models weren't bullish enough

[storm4u]

Huge jump north on the 18z NAVGEM hits northern Florida now

[Aric Dunn]

18z euro anyone??

good initialization. NW for 24 hours then sharp left turn starts