EPAC: ERICK - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

ST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992019 07/27/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 53 61 64 68 68 69 67
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 53 61 64 68 68 69 67
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 36 40 46 50 56 61 64 62
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 9 8 4 4 6 5 3 7 6 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 5 1 -2 -2 -4 -5 -6 -5 -4 -4 -1
SHEAR DIR 34 24 28 41 33 360 322 318 2 303 271 277 254
SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 29.0 29.3 28.8 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.1
POT. INT. (KT) 153 157 160 159 158 154 155 158 153 144 142 141 135
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 72 70 68 66 63 61 56 52 48 52 51 53 55
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 9 9 11 11 12 11
850 MB ENV VOR -15 -3 -8 0 1 -4 10 19 9 9 6 1 -8
200 MB DIV 47 52 41 34 33 52 46 69 41 21 15 0 0
700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 -4 -5 -3 -3 -3 -5 -2 -8 -1 5
LAND (KM) 1732 1805 1898 1982 2063 2245 2405 2537 2318 2077 1847 1622 1403
LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.4 13.1 13.8 14.4 15.1
LONG(DEG W) 120.0 121.2 122.6 123.9 125.1 127.6 130.0 132.2 134.4 136.5 138.5 140.5 142.4
STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 42 55 52 39 27 19 29 24 15 13 24 17 9

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 28. 36. 39. 43. 43. 44. 42.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 120.0

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992019 INVEST 07/27/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 5.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.61 5.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 2.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.39 2.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 4.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.5% 24.6% 0.0% 0.0% 23.0% 23.8% 0.0%
Logistic: 13.4% 55.6% 29.1% 20.9% 4.0% 17.9% 7.2% 24.3%
Bayesian: 1.6% 8.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.0% 3.6% 2.2% 0.1%
Consensus: 5.0% 30.4% 18.5% 7.2% 1.4% 14.8% 11.0% 8.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992019 INVEST 07/27/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

Should be classified as a TD soon. SAB came in with 1.5.

[Kingarabian]

Delete

[Yellow Evan]

Might be classifiable now.

[Yellow Evan]

Shower activity associated with an area of disturbed weather located
a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are favorable for additional development,
and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely form either
late this weekend or early next week. This system is expected to
move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 270617
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99E)

B. 27/0600Z

C. 11.1N

D. 121.2W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES WHILE MET
IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

27/0156Z 11.0N 120.3W WINDSAT


...TURK

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF.

[Kingarabian]

This should be a depression.

SAB up to 2.0:

TXPZ25 KNES 270617
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99E)

B. 27/0600Z

C. 11.1N

D. 121.2W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES WHILE MET
IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

27/0156Z 11.0N 120.3W WINDSAT


...TURK

This 6 hour old WINDSAT pass was surprisingly not useless and caught the whole system and I believe it clearly shows a center:

[Kingarabian]

00z HMON has this reaching borderline major hurricane status:


00z HWRF peaks it @ minimal hurricane status before quickly weakening it.

[Astromanía]

I expect this to be a category 2 hurricane at least, but knowing how EPAC storms overperforms I think this has a chance to be a category 3 (major), I hope so, I want the ACE from this basin to increase. This won't seem to afect Hawaii in the future, so its fine.

[Nancy Smar]

ABPZ20 KNHC 270944
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
245 AM PDT Sat Jul 27 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the area of disturbed weather to the southwest of the southern tip
of Baja California.

Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area
of disturbed weather located about 1100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
become better organized this morning. If this trend continues, a
tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form later
today or tonight. This system is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 99, 2019072706, , BEST, 0, 109N, 1212W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015,

[Chris90]

You can see on satellite and microwave images that this is a fairly small storm, and models seem to be showing a small storm as well. These smaller storms are prone to larger, faster swings up and down in intensity, so if this puts together a tight core and takes advantage of favorable conditions, I think a Cat 4 is possible out of this after a period of rapid intensification. I think it'll be one of those that goes up quick and comes down just as fast.

[cycloneye]

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the disturbance
located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is already producing tropical-storm-force winds
in gusts while a low-level center appears to be forming. If it
becomes apparent that a center has formed, advisories will be
initiated later this morning. This system is expected to move
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Well better late than never. Feel like it's been a TC for the past 12 hours. It's been out performong the models.

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99E)

B. 27/1200Z

C. 11.4N

D. 122.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET IS 1.5 AND PT IS
2.0. FT IS BASED ON PT BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD FEATURES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 06, 2019072712, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1230W, 30, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015, TRANSITIONED, epA92019 to ep062019,

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
500 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019

The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been tracking for
several days across the eastern Pacific has developed enough
organized convection near the center of circulation, and is now
classified as a 30-kt tropical depression. This is supported by
T2.0 Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The depression is embedded within a good environment for
intensification of low shear and high SSTs. Despite the environment,
most of the models show only a very modest strengthening. The NHC
forecast is a little more aggressive than the models and is above
the intensity consensus. The depression is anticipated to become a
tropical storm later today and reach hurricane status by the end of
the forecast period.

The depression is well embedded within the deep easterly flow south
of a subtropical ridge and is moving westward at 16 kt. Since this
steering flow pattern is not forecast to change much, the cyclone
should continue on a general west or west-northwest track through
the next 5 days, perhaps with a small decrease in forward speed. The
NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and
very near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 11.3N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 11.3N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 11.9N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 12.5N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 13.2N 133.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 14.5N 139.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 15.5N 144.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 16.5N 149.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Ntxw]

Seen worse looking than this get called a hurricane this season (elsewhere ).

[Yellow Evan]

lol at the 1st intensity forecast. Is the NHC trying to have another bust too low?