EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1146116713550876673

[Kingarabian]

Damn Barbara really looks good. Dont remember the last time I've seen a hurricane with the classic look in the western portion of the EPAC in a long time. I wonder if the abundance of convection giving it this look is due to it being in close proximation of the El Nino standing wave near 135W that the models show.

[Ntxw]

Damn Barbara really looks good. Dont remember the last time I've seen a hurricane with the classic look in the western portion of the EPAC in a long time. I wonder if the abundance of convection giving it this look is due to it being in close proximation of the El Nino standing wave near 135W that the models show.

That and she managed to form at fairly low latitude. Western part of the basin and CPAC as many of us have mentioned is prime breeding ground this year.

She is the only major TC player on Earth right now.

[Kazmit]

I'm impressed by how big this thing is. Look at its size compared to the Gulf of Mexico. It would basically take up the whole thing if it were there.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track only up to 120 kts.I thought they would go a little bit higher.

Location: 12.7°N 122.7°W
Maximum Winds: 120 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 945 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 210 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM

[Kingarabian]

18z Best Track only up to 120 kts.I thought they would go a little bit higher.

Location: 12.7°N 122.7°W
Maximum Winds: 120 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 945 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 210 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM

Its because SAB came in with 6.0 again. But ADT has been running near 7.0 and SATCON estimate from 4 hours ago was 130kts.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro has Barbara impacting the southern big Island as a very weak system with some TS winds present.
Only 12 EPS members keep it alive as a weak TS as it reaches the Big Island.

[HurricaneRyan]

Definitely a nice storm at the moment.

[TheAustinMan]

Intriguing views of both the ongoing solar eclipse in the Southern Hemisphere and Barbara, providing a dual contrast to the Eastern Pacific this afternoon.

706 kB. Source: SSEC RealEarth


... and a wider shot:
153 kB. Source: SSEC RealEarth

[Chris90]

ADT has the eye temp up to +16.8C and the W ring has solidified nicely with some decent CMG in there as well. I don't know that I would be perfectly confident to go 140kts and Cat 5, but I do feel pretty confident in an intensity estimate of 135kts.

[galaxy401]

The Solar Eclipse could indirectly cause Barbara to strengthen. After all, it will cause a little Dmax.

[TorSkk]

Probably stronger than 120 kt, maybe an update statement before next advisory?

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 02 2019

Barbara is a large and powerful hurricane. The latest ASCAT
scatterometer data confirms that tropical-storm-force winds extend
up to 160 n mi from the center, while the hurricane-force winds
extend up to 30 n mi from the center. A very impressive outflow
channel exists over nearly a 20 degree swath of ocean to the north
of the cyclone. There are at least two mesocyclones evident in the
well-defined eye, and cloud tops are colder than -70 degrees C in
most of the eyewall. A compromise between the subjective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and the objective estimates of
CIMSS ADT and SATCON yield an initial intensity of 120 kt for this
advisory.

Barbara continues to move toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees
at 12 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge extending from the west
coast of the United States westward across the eastern Pacific.
Barbara will turn northwestward in 36 to 48 hours as it reaches the
southwestern periphery of the ridge. Thereafter, once the cyclone
weakens to a shallow system, it should turn back westward steered by
the low-level flow as per the majority of the track guidance.

There is still a small window of opportunity today and this evening
for additional strengthening of Barbara, while it remains over SSTs
greater than 28 deg C and in a low shear environment. The SSTs ahead
of Barbara start to decline Wednesday morning due to the forecast
track taking the hurricane over progressively cooler waters of about
26.5 deg C in 24 hours, and near 25 deg C in 72 hours. In addition,
the cyclone will be approaching a more stable airmass and moving
into increasing southwesterly vertical shear within a few days. All
of these conditions suggest that Barbara should begin a slow
weakening trend on Wednesday, with the weakening accelerating after
48 hours. By the time Barbara reaches the Central Pacific, it is
likely to be a tropical storm or even a remnant low.

NOTE: Beginning this hurricane season, all National Hurricane
Center eastern Pacific advisory products that utilize local time,
and the corresponding graphical products, will use Hawaiian Standard
Time (HST) instead of Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) or Standard Time
(PST) if the final forecast point is west of 140W. Since Barbara's
day 5 official forecast point is now west of 140W, advisory products
are now being issued in Hawaiian Standard Time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 12.9N 123.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 13.4N 124.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 14.2N 126.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 15.2N 128.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 16.4N 130.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 18.6N 134.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 19.3N 139.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 19.0N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUL 2019 Time : 202034 UTC
Lat : 12:54:35 N Lon : 123:20:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 925.9mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +19.1C Cloud Region Temp : -72.2C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

Eye temp up to +20C.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1146116713550876673

Wow that's really cool.

I'm also surprised to find that vortex Rossby wave instabilities are also thought to be a cause of quasi-periodic variability in black hole accretion disks (i.e. what I study.)

Okay, never mind, carry on. There's just so much knowledge in this world and you can only study such a tiny part of it it's very humbling.

[Chris90]

Eye temp up to +20C.

Yep. I believe 1900hurricane has mentioned before on here that he usually finds a difference of 90°C between the eye temp and the CDO temp to be pretty good for Cat 5. If it was someone else who said that or I have that wrong, my apologies in advance.
But, right now with the eye sitting at +20C and the CDO right around -72C, we've got the 90°C differential. I think Barbara might be around 140-145kts, regardless of whether she ever officially gets the Cat 5 classification.

[Ntxw]

This looks worthy of 135kt. Might even push for 140kts.

[Kingarabian]

Eye temp up to +20C.

Yep. I believe 1900hurricane has mentioned before on here that he usually finds a difference of 90°C between the eye temp and the CDO temp to be pretty good for Cat 5. If it was someone else who said that or I have that wrong, my apologies in advance.
But, right now with the eye sitting at +20C and the CDO right around -72C, we've got the 90°C differential. I think Barbara might be around 140-145kts, regardless of whether she ever officially gets the Cat 5 classification.

I wouldn't doubt its a Cat.5 if there was recon. But I think Barbara will fall victim like previous EPAC systems where they're stuck in this gray area of likely being a Cat.5 but there's not enough satellite estimates to entice the NHC to make that call.

[Kingarabian]

This looks worthy of 135kt. Might even push for 140kts.

[url]https://images2.imgbox.com/4b/dc/1andFRxX_o.gif[url]

The 120kt estimates @ 18z was too low.