ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

the nhc will have too come south now, 75-100 miles based on that ridge as depicted in the euro...they didnt do much at 11 but they have too much respect for the euro to not adjust accordingly...all interests from the cape to key largo you better prepare for a landfalling major, keys you are in play too...that gfs nonsense from yesterday is a faded memory

I'd be surprised if the NHC lurches that much in a single forecast cycle. A more likely scenario is a small adjustment each forecast cycle assuming that trend remains intact. it certainly seems the risk to FL is increasing but it is still several days out.

[Happy Pelican]

Just wrapped up initial prep, thinking I was a day ahead of everybody else.

This is NOT THE CASE. (thankfully)

People are taking this threat seriously, and water, batteries are running low or completely out at some locations in the Jax Beach area.

Filled up the gas cans before the lines form tonight/tomorrow.

The problem with Florida is that there really is nowhere to evacuate to, except away from the coast to guard against surge.

Just too many people, and limited roads.

Hoping Dorian is not "Son of Dora", but preparing as if he were.

Stay safe everyone. We should have a clearer indication 24 hours from now of the eventual landfall point.

Glad to hear the threat is being taken very seriously. I’m so broken, still trapped in Sandy recovery hell But being prepared is so vital. Stay safe!

[jlauderdal]

Just wrapped up initial prep, thinking I was a day ahead of everybody else.

This is NOT THE CASE. (thankfully)

People are taking this threat seriously, and water, batteries are running low or completely out at some locations in the Jax Beach area.

Filled up the gas cans before the lines form tonight/tomorrow.

The problem with Florida is that there really is nowhere to evacuate to, except away from the coast to guard against surge.

Just too many people, and limited roads.

Hoping Dorian is not "Son of Dora", but preparing as if he were.

Stay safe everyone. We should have a clearer indication 24 hours from now of the eventual landfall point.

good to see people prepping, walmart was out of bottled water this morning, i picked up gallons..picked up 50 gallons of gas at noon in fort Lauderdale for the genny and there were others there too..10 years ago you wouldnt have seen anyone getting ready this earlier...5 days of supplies on hand folks, at least....water is cheap, you can use gas in your car later if you dont use it

[jlauderdal]

the nhc will have too come south now, 75-100 miles based on that ridge as depicted in the euro...they didnt do much at 11 but they have too much respect for the euro to not adjust accordingly...all interests from the cape to key largo you better prepare for a landfalling major, keys you are in play too...that gfs nonsense from yesterday is a faded memory

I'd be surprised if the NHC lurches that much in a single forecast cycle. A more likely scenario is a small adjustment each forecast cycle assuming that trend remains intact. it certainly seems the risk to FL is increasing but it is still several days out.

i think they come that far only because they didnt do much on the last disco even though they had euro support already and now we have another euro run and gfs coming in farther to the left....they dont like big changes but they really ramped up the intensity at 11 and they dont want to get boxed in especially because then its 11 pm on the next disco and they lose even more time...let see what they do..there is no denying that ridge

[Sanibel]

Latest Euro takes an Andrew west track into Boca Raton and exits out over the top of us in to the Gulf...That could rock us even if it tracks over land on the way...

Don't you love these things? I have to make the decision on clearing heavy planters from the porch and yard...I'm pretty sure I gave myself a hernia last time with Irma...

[SconnieCane]

We heard this same old song and dance last year with Florence...it's called "The Monster Atlantic Ridge Tango" and it usually doesn't end well for someone on the east coast of the CONUS.

[Highteeld]

If Dorian indeed takes the path of the ECM, I expect this thread to come close to 1,000 pages lol

[Buck]

[Weatherboy1]

Well, I have to admit it's not the best feeling in the world to have a bullseye painted on your front door (here in Jupiter, FL). It's easy to discount (Without completely ruling out) extreme scenarios like what the HWRF is projecting. It's not so easy to discount the fact almost all models now showing a strong/strengthening hurricane approaching the South/Central FL coast. Especially so because the eastern outlier GFS is coming more in line with what ECMWF, CMC, UKMET, etc. showing. Ugh.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1166779832925085696

[FireRat]

The simple fact that Dorian could strike FL just before or on September 2nd, Labor Day, the exact anniversary of the 1935 Labor Day storm, should be enough to scare Floridians into prep mode ASAP.
This escalated very quickly and is no joke!

[jlauderdal]

If Dorian indeed takes the path of the ECM, I expect this thread to come close to 1,000 pages lol

for sure, to get that kind of activity you need florda and texas involved and we know we have florida and possibly texas now

[plasticup]

good to see people prepping, walmart was out of bottled water this morning, i picked up gallons..picked up 50 gallons of gas at noon in fort Lauderdale for the genny and there were others there too..10 years ago you wouldnt have seen anyone getting ready this earlier...5 days of supplies on hand folks, at least....water is cheap, you can use gas in your car later if you dont use it

Water is basically free from your tap. You just need some containers and you can fill them yourself.

[jlauderdal]

https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1166779832925085696

and why in the world is that person on a boat?

[TallyTracker]

I’m getting gas and supplies today here in Tallahassee just in case to beat the rush. If it takes even a Jeanne or Frances type track, I would expect tropical storm force winds in this area. With our tree canopy, that spells lengthy power outages. NWS Tallahassee already has a page dedicated to Dorian now with possible impacts. Right now they are calling for heavy rains starting Sunday or Monday.

FYI, another great way to get water is to use the refill stations at Walmart, Publix, etc. I fill up 5 gallon tanks for drinking water that way, but you can fill up one gallon jugs too. Only costs $0.35 per gallon worst case in Tallahassee. Doesn’t run out like case of water on the shelf.

[jlauderdal]

good to see people prepping, walmart was out of bottled water this morning, i picked up gallons..picked up 50 gallons of gas at noon in fort Lauderdale for the genny and there were others there too..10 years ago you wouldnt have seen anyone getting ready this earlier...5 days of supplies on hand folks, at least....water is cheap, you can use gas in your car later if you dont use it

Water is basically free from your tap. You just need some containers and you can fill them yourself.

even better idea if you have storage containers

[StPeteMike]

I’m guessing they’ll start posting Hurricane Watches for much of the east coast of Florida by tomorrow morning, correct?

[SoupBone]

If Dorian indeed takes the path of the ECM, I expect this thread to come close to 1,000 pages lol

for sure, to get that kind of activity you need florda and texas involved and we know we have florida and possibly texas now

To be fair, we don't have Texas in play....yet. But with the continued West swing and some of the models thinking the ridge will be stout, I'm definitely paying more attention (no that I wasn't before).

[northjaxpro]

I’m guessing they’ll start posting Hurricane Watches for much of the east coast of Florida by tomorrow morning, correct?

I would say by no later than tomorrow afternoon. The Bahamas will be issued watches earlier.

[EquusStorm]

You can see absolutely where the eye is forming. Scary symmetry.