ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jdjaguar]

https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1166779832925085696

and why in the world is that person on a boat?

It is probably their home.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1166784523054538753

[mpic]

If Dorian indeed takes the path of the ECM, I expect this thread to come close to 1,000 pages lol

for sure, to get that kind of activity you need florda and texas involved and we know we have florida and possibly texas now

Texas is here ...always. Had all my supplies ready since July 4th and an eye on the weather. This forum saved me during Ike.

[wxman57]

Euro says Panama City is due for another major hurricane. It's been nearly a year since their last...

[Highteeld]

https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1166779832925085696

and why in the world is that person on a boat?

It is probably their home.

https://youtu.be/avaSdC0QOUM?t=43

[Evil Jeremy]

I’m guessing they’ll start posting Hurricane Watches for much of the east coast of Florida by tomorrow morning, correct?

I would say by no later than tomorrow afternoon.

I'm thinking Friday morning, or Thursday 11pm if we're expecting landfall sometime on Sunday. If landfall isn't expected until Monday (and there is still a decent spread on the timing of Dorian's arrival), Watches would come out Friday night.

[northjaxpro]

Dorian is looking rather impressive with its satellite presentation already.

[xironman]

good to see people prepping, walmart was out of bottled water this morning, i picked up gallons..picked up 50 gallons of gas at noon in fort Lauderdale for the genny and there were others there too..10 years ago you wouldnt have seen anyone getting ready this earlier...5 days of supplies on hand folks, at least....water is cheap, you can use gas in your car later if you dont use it

Water is basically free from your tap. You just need some containers and you can fill them yourself.

even better idea if you have storage containers

Old school, fill the bathtub

[jlauderdal]

If Dorian indeed takes the path of the ECM, I expect this thread to come close to 1,000 pages lol

for sure, to get that kind of activity you need florda and texas involved and we know we have florida and possibly texas now

To be fair, we don't have Texas in play....yet. But with the continued West swing and some of the models thinking the ridge will be stout, I'm definitely paying more attention (no that I wasn't before).

i see a ridge building back in after the wnw turn in the gulf..the models keep trending west, two more euro cycles and it texas could be in line for it

[ronjon]

Well, I have to admit it's not the best feeling in the world to have a bullseye painted on your front door (here in Jupiter, FL). It's easy to discount (Without completely ruling out) extreme scenarios like what the HWRF is projecting. It's not so easy to discount the fact almost all models now showing a strong/strengthening hurricane approaching the South/Central FL coast. Especially so because the eastern outlier GFS is coming more in line with what ECMWF, CMC, UKMET, etc. showing. Ugh.

Yeah it sux. I get that sick feeling in my stomach when it looks inevitable. Makes me want to move from the state. I always say that everytime we go through this drill.

[TallyTracker]

Euro says Panama City is due for another major hurricane. It's been nearly a year since their last...

Euro needs to quit that! lol Many of my relatives in Bay County are still displaced or in damaged houses. That area can’t take another hit for years. In fact, the trees are what saved a lot of houses since they acted as a shield. Afternoon thunderstorms have been knocking down trees and damaging tarped houses.

[jlauderdal]

Water is basically free from your tap. You just need some containers and you can fill them yourself.

even better idea if you have storage containers

Old school, fill the bathtub

new school, i want the cleanest water available...lol

[SoupBone]

for sure, to get that kind of activity you need florda and texas involved and we know we have florida and possibly texas now

To be fair, we don't have Texas in play....yet. But with the continued West swing and some of the models thinking the ridge will be stout, I'm definitely paying more attention (no that I wasn't before).

i see a ridge building back in after the wnw turn in the gulf..the models keep trending west, two more euro cycles and it texas could be in line for it

The current thinking is that the Death Ridge we've had here in Texas all Summer will likely still shield us. So we trade nearly unbearable heat, instead of a hurricane. I'll take the heat.

[ozonepete]

I’m guessing they’ll start posting Hurricane Watches for much of the east coast of Florida by tomorrow morning, correct?

Not with that track. Too early.

[Steve]

Water is basically free from your tap. You just need some containers and you can fill them yourself.

even better idea if you have storage containers

Old school, fill the bathtub

That's a crucial source for buckets to force your toilet to flush. Old school indeed.

[jlauderdal]

Dorian is looking rather impressive with its satellite presentation already.

never say never but we said yesterday its very difficult getting a system into NE florida and as of this afternoon that looks to remain the case

[hohnywx]

I’m guessing they’ll start posting Hurricane Watches for much of the east coast of Florida by tomorrow morning, correct?

Based on the current estimate landfall of early Monday morning, I would expect them Friday evening:

Hurricane Watch: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

[Kingarabian]

Dorian looking really good...

[Do_For_Love]

I've been addicted to following this the past couple days. Is there anything between Dorian's current location and CONUS that can inhibit development? It seems like the Caribbean was a big hope for weakening the storm. I suppose you can never really be certain either way, but are there any other obvious obstacles to achieving Major status?

[xironman]

even better idea if you have storage containers

Old school, fill the bathtub

new school, i want the cleanest water available...lol

I have a well and a solar system to power it which feeds into a reverse osmosis system, so yeah I can have the cleanest water I want. But cleaning out a container for emergencies seems fine. I don't expect everyone to have that advantage.