ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Bocadude85]

Does anyone have the text output for the UKMET?

[sma10]

In a nutshell, tonight has been more of the same. GFS sticking with less stout of a ridge and a turn toward the wnw. Uk/ICON stronger ridge and much sharper west turn. We'll see if euro holds serve and stays in the basic uk camp

[Jonny]

So the odds of entering the GOM and hitting the FL panhandle are starting to decrease?

[Steve]

That reverse questionmark track from SFWMD suggests it's not going to move that much west after coming off Florida if it ever does. A shortwave swings by. The ridging will build back in behind it, but the 00z models see a path up so far.

[AutoPenalti]

So the odds of entering the GOM and hitting the FL panhandle are starting to decrease?

It remains about the same, it will change up until days 1-2, once we know exactly how that ridge is performing.

[Craters]

GFS really needs to sort out its issues with Synoptics...

So this has happened and you know it's wrong? I have to say I'm getting tired of reading the same nonsense over and over. Classic GFS bias, even though it's a completely different core, and claims that what the GFS is showing won't happen for no apparent reason other than it's not what the euro shows. I don't know where Dorian is going but I sure would like to see more evidence that its solution is somehow impossible.

rant// I wish I could hit the "Like" button about 6000 times for tolakram's post. With all of the model uncertainty, wavering, flip-flopping, and flailing, how can anybody logically criticize any one of them other than through personal bias? The uncertainties here are so great that even the NHC mets, who should have earned everyone's respect by now on the objective basis of their abilities, have to qualify their forecasts. For better or worse, I'm a scientist by profession, and this kind of personal bias just rankles me like fire ants in my socks. Jeez... //rant

[floridasun78]

look like going boxing match gfs vs euro who will good model and who going loss fight

[HDGator]

I guess nobody is interested in staying up for the Euro tonight.

[Kingarabian]

Does anyone have the text output for the UKMET?

[floridasun78]

I guess nobody is interested in staying up for the Euro tonight.

i dont so because nhc waiting see by Friday morning run what models show that when watch will be post

[sma10]

GFS really needs to sort out its issues with Synoptics...

So this has happened and you know it's wrong? I have to say I'm getting tired of reading the same nonsense over and over. Classic GFS bias, even though it's a completely different core, and claims that what the GFS is showing won't happen for no apparent reason other than it's not what the euro shows. I don't know where Dorian is going but I sure would like to see more evidence that its solution is somehow impossible.

rant// I wish I could hit the "Like" button about 6000 times for tolakram's post. With all of the model uncertainty, wavering, flip-flopping, and flailing, how can anybody logically criticize any one of them other than through personal bias? The uncertainties here are so great that even the NHC mets, who should have earned everyone's respect by now on the objective basis of their abilities, have to qualify their forecasts. For better or worse, I'm a scientist by profession, and this kind of personal bias just rankles me like fire ants in my socks. Jeez... //rant

Agreed. Bias tends to run wild at time.

[Bocadude85]

Does anyone have the text output for the UKMET?

https://i.imgur.com/1INN6ZS.jpg

Thank you, the UKMET actually makes landfall farther south on the 0z run, landfall is around Boynton Beach compared to the Jupiter landfall shown on the 12z run

[caneseddy]

Does anyone have the text output for the UKMET?

https://i.imgur.com/1INN6ZS.jpg

Looks like landfall around Lake Worth (just south of West Palm Beach)

[sma10]

Looks like we can add CMC to the Uk/euro camp. Stronger ridge much flatter approach to the coast near lake okee

[tolakram]

Maybe read these, look at the error numbers, look at the individual model performance compared to the blends, especially the Florida State Super Ensemble, and realize that sticking to either the euro or GFS is folly. In both reports table 3a, near the bottom, is what you are looking for.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2017.pdf
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2018.pdf

One does not throw out the Euro because it's south, nor the UKMet. One does not throw out the GFS because it's north. I said this a number of posts ago but the GFS more northerly solution is pulling the consensus north, which makes the overall forecast more accurate.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I guess nobody is interested in staying up for the Euro tonight.

I'm here. When does it start again?

Everyone is yelling about how wonky the 0z GFS run was, but at 10pm est, I was yelling at my girlfriend and pointing at the screen asking why no one else saw the break between the dropping ridge and the Atlantic High, leaving a northward escape route for Dorian. All she could do was tell me "You have to calm down, the storm is still a few days away".

[AutoPenalti]

GFS really needs to sort out its issues with Synoptics...

So this has happened and you know it's wrong? I have to say I'm getting tired of reading the same nonsense over and over. Classic GFS bias, even though it's a completely different core, and claims that what the GFS is showing won't happen for no apparent reason other than it's not what the euro shows. I don't know where Dorian is going but I sure would like to see more evidence that its solution is somehow impossible.

rant// I wish I could hit the "Like" button about 6000 times for tolakram's post. With all of the model uncertainty, wavering, flip-flopping, and flailing, how can anybody logically criticize any one of them other than through personal bias? The uncertainties here are so great that even the NHC mets, who should have earned everyone's respect by now on the objective basis of their abilities, have to qualify their forecasts. For better or worse, I'm a scientist by profession, and this kind of personal bias just rankles me like fire ants in my socks. Jeez... //rant

There’s always going to be bias no matter how you see it. Models always change, it’s part of the algorithm it’s being fed. Sometimes they get it right, sometimes they don’t. Some forecasters lean towards one model because of track record. That doesn’t mean the other model gets left out, it’s just weighed less than the former. That’s just what bias is, you prefer that thing over another because it’s done better. I’m pretty sure lots of people, including Mets do the same as well.

That being said, wrt the GFS, it’s been inconsistent with its surroundings, not saying it’s flat out wrong, but for it to be 100 miles separated from its prior runs in such short timeframes whereas other models have only gradually moved, it causes me to question it.

[caneseddy]

Canadian landfalls around Jupiter

[Steve]

I gotta disagree. When you encounter a model with a well known bias, it's not about personal biases. You simply have to consider what you know. GFS could be right or the most correct. We're going to find out. I'm anti-state casting or personal biasing to the core. My location has been up there as "not a state-caster" for years, because state casting annoys me. And too many people do it. Just the same, ignoring the obvious - year after year - biases with the GFS and its multitude of upgrades ignores knowledge we already have.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like we can add CMC to the Uk/euro camp. Stronger ridge much flatter approach to the coast near lake okee

0z Canadian also showing the wsw dip right before landfall, landfall is a touch farther south and much slower then the 12z