ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

If you look up hurricane in the dictionary this is what you would see.

you ever see a pic of typhoon tip?

I have not actually.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... torm-ever/

Tip is a real legend in size and power

[KWT]

WXFLOW XBUK Station, St Thomas, VI reported 81mph sustained winds Gusting to 100mph.
Dorian is getting his act together.

Classic strengthening hurricane based from the reports with the eyewall highest winds reaching the surface thanks to the strong convection in there.

Should be 80mph next advisory from that info alone.

[Kingarabian]

It's really interesting how it has Cat.1 winds despite a very poor IR appearance. Goes to show how recon and ground observations cannot be beat.

[Aric Dunn]

Yep it is about to bomb out

[eastcoastFL]

Just booked a flight to Denver... I’m not sticking around for this one. As much as I enjoy the storm it’s the aftermath of no power boredom and no air conditioning that is unbearable . FYI for any others. The flights are cheap from pbi to Denver .

[jdjaguar]

tropical cyclones with pinhole eyes are associated with rapid intensification

Folks, Dorian has a pin hole eye.

[KWT]

It's really interesting how it has Cat.1 winds despite a very poor IR appearance. Goes to show how recon and ground observations cannot be beat.
https://i.imgur.com/K2Roz9L.png

I don't think its that far off what I'd expect in an IR presentation from a 65-70kts hurricane. Interestingly the Vis presentation is much more impressive at the moment.

I wonder also whether now the inflow is coming off of PR, whether we may see the pace of organisation just lower a touch over the next 12hrs. The models all hold Dorian more or less steady tomorrow, but current trends seem to go against this, especially as the inner core is looking pretty solid right now.

[Buck]

I kinda have a hunch this might be a major hurricane sooner than the official forecast, the way things are starting to shape up.

[hurricaneCW]

Upper level pattern is very favorable for Dorian, the only problem was the mid level dry air and that's beginning to fade.

Could we be looking at a double major LF? And could Dorian be a Cat 4 at LF, the pattern certainly supports it.

[decgirl66]

Is it possible for a storm to be strong/powerful enough that the ridge does not affect it? (Hope that makes sense!)

[Weatherboy1]

TV consensus track averages much further south and west now due to convergence of models in that direction. Likely NHC adjusts track 50-ish miles south at 5 p.m. IMO ...

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhydro_web_qry.storm_display

[Kingarabian]

The un-model'd and unforecast center reformation 2 days ago is responsible for this worst case scenario, that appears to be materializing. Regardless of track, there wasn't much to take Dorian out to sea. But since Dorian's center reformed and the track shifted considerably east, it looks like it will create more separation from mountainous land masses AND the ULL. So instead of Dorian trekking over Hispaniola and affecting Florida as a weak TS, it's now likely to be a major hurricane due to the shift in track. Crazy.

[jaxfladude]

Yikes if Dorian does impact Florida and any other states as forecast to do and depending on strength and damage potential we could be looking at the "R" word..... I hope Dorian is not as bad as it forecast to be. Prayers for the Caribbean Islands.

[SoupBone]

Just booked a flight to Denver... I’m not sticking around for this one. As much as I enjoy the storm it’s the aftermath of no power boredom and no air conditioning that is unbearable . FYI for any others. The flights are cheap from pbi to Denver .

I love Denver. If I ever move, it'll be to Colorado, and you'll never see me post here again.

Dorian sure will go down as one system that had people all over the Gulf Coast on their heels.

[Michele B]

good to see people prepping, walmart was out of bottled water this morning, i picked up gallons..picked up 50 gallons of gas at noon in fort Lauderdale for the genny and there were others there too..10 years ago you wouldnt have seen anyone getting ready this earlier...5 days of supplies on hand folks, at least....water is cheap, you can use gas in your car later if you dont use it

Water is basically free from your tap. You just need some containers and you can fill them yourself.

Yeah...if you're worried about the quality of your water just use a water filter. It saves you so much money.

Or boil and refill jugs now.

I also save cat litter jugs which we are currently filling with water. THIS WATER WILL BE FOR FLUSHING ONLY!!! I would NOT use that water to injest!!! But another container of water, and they can be left outside (after storm has passed, or course) and only brought in to use in toilet), in case your water system fails (or the city's). We had NO WATER coming from city system for a couple days after Charlie.

[KWT]

Upper level pattern is very favorable for Dorian, the only problem was the mid level dry air and that's beginning to fade.

Could we be looking at a double major LF? And could Dorian be a Cat 4 at LF, the pattern certainly supports it.

I'm fairly sure this is going 115kts+ but how high it goes is clearly a little uncertain at the moment. History suggest cat-5 is at least plauseable, though that is clearly an extreme solution.

[Kingarabian]

It's really interesting how it has Cat.1 winds despite a very poor IR appearance. Goes to show how recon and ground observations cannot be beat.
https://i.imgur.com/K2Roz9L.png

I don't think its that far off what I'd expect in an IR presentation from a 65-70kts hurricane. Interestingly the Vis presentation is much more impressive at the moment.

I wonder also whether now the inflow is coming off of PR, whether we may see the pace of organisation just lower a touch over the next 12hrs. The models all hold Dorian more or less steady tomorrow, but current trends seem to go against this, especially as the inner core is looking pretty solid right now.

Yeah I come from the EPAC basin where we solely rely on Dvorak and satellite appearances for the most part to asses TC intensities. Right now this would be a moderate TS based on Dvorak LOL!

[jlauderdal]

Just booked a flight to Denver... I’m not sticking around for this one. As much as I enjoy the storm it’s the aftermath of no power boredom and no air conditioning that is unbearable . FYI for any others. The flights are cheap from pbi to Denver .

was just in denver after a few days in Albuquerque and sante fe, intense tsrom activity every day in the afternoon due to the monsoon...enjoy denver, hit redrocks for a show if you can

[northjaxpro]

Upper level pattern is very favorable for Dorian, the only problem was the mid level dry air and that's beginning to fade.

Could we be looking at a double major LF? And could Dorian be a Cat 4 at LF, the pattern certainly supports it.

I am not sure about a double major landfall (still plausile in this instance I suppose)

But, all that you mentioned is on the table. A very potentially dangerous cyclone developing no doubt about it.

[Patrick99]

Just booked a flight to Denver... I’m not sticking around for this one. As much as I enjoy the storm it’s the aftermath of no power boredom and no air conditioning that is unbearable . FYI for any others. The flights are cheap from pbi to Denver .

I was extremely lucky with Irma, power was back on within 24 hours. But I know plenty of others who had to wait, wait and wait some more. No severe damage with Andrew, but that time I did have to wait for power.

I could deal with the boredom if I JUST had AC......that's the tough part as it affects everything you try to do, sleep chief among them. I remember taking like 7-8 trickle showers per day after Andrew, basically hosing myself down as often as possible. Water pressure wasn't great but it was doable.