ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jfk08c]

Is it possible for a storm to be strong/powerful enough that the ridge does not affect it? (Hope that makes sense!)

If i'm not mistaken, stronger systems are more easily influenced by steering patterns than a weaker more disorganized storm

[SunnyThoughts]

Water is basically free from your tap. You just need some containers and you can fill them yourself.

Yeah...if you're worried about the quality of your water just use a water filter. It saves you so much money.

Or boil and refill jugs now.

I also save cat litter jugs which we are currently filling with water. THIS WATER WILL BE FOR FLUSHING ONLY!!! I would NOT use that water to injest!!! But another container of water, and they can be left outside (after storm has passed, or course) and only brought in to use in toilet), in case your water system fails (or the city's). We had NO WATER coming from city system for a couple days after Charlie.

I always save my 2 ltr coke bottles, as well as plastic gallon milk containers and fill with water. I put them inthe freezer to help keep everything as cold a possible for as long as possible in case you lose power. Fill up bath tub with water to flush toilets etc. Make sure to have car chargers for phones...no electricity...you can always charge in the car.

[Kingarabian]

[1900hurricane]

It's really interesting how it has Cat.1 winds despite a very poor IR appearance. Goes to show how recon and ground observations cannot be beat.
https://i.imgur.com/K2Roz9L.png

Yeah, convection still isn't particularly deep, but using a curved band on the BD curve, it does appear to just barely exceed the 1.0 wrap for a DT of 4.0.

[eastcoastFL]

Just booked a flight to Denver... I’m not sticking around for this one. As much as I enjoy the storm it’s the aftermath of no power boredom and no air conditioning that is unbearable . FYI for any others. The flights are cheap from pbi to Denver .

I love Denver. If I ever move, it'll be to Colorado, and you'll never see me post here again.

Dorian sure will go down as one system that had people all over the Gulf Coast on their heels.

I’ve never been so now seems like a good time.. I’m going to make the best of it. I hope Dorian doesn’t come to my house but if he does I won’t be home.

[Highteeld]

Warm spot forming in the eye

[Michele B]

Upper level pattern is very favorable for Dorian, the only problem was the mid level dry air and that's beginning to fade.

Could we be looking at a double major LF? And could Dorian be a Cat 4 at LF, the pattern certainly supports it.

That would send the prognosticators in a tizzy, wouldn't it?

AND it would be a terrible thing to have happen.....

[Steejo91]

I honestly would have laughed at the thought that this would emerge from this area a hurricane due to Hispanola or Puerto Rico, but I am completely impressed by the Satellite presentation of Dorian right now. Currently making plans as we speak to head down to cover the landfall of Dorian somewhere along the FL coastline this weekend the way this is looking at the moment! Amazing what a LLC relocation can do to a forecast. I really hope everyone is taking this seriously in FL, especially if this really slows down as it interacts with that ridge. I can only foresee some slight shear from the ULL, but at this pace, the ULL will outpace Dorian

[Michele B]

Yeah...if you're worried about the quality of your water just use a water filter. It saves you so much money.

Or boil and refill jugs now.

I also save cat litter jugs which we are currently filling with water. THIS WATER WILL BE FOR FLUSHING ONLY!!! I would NOT use that water to injest!!! But another container of water, and they can be left outside (after storm has passed, or course) and only brought in to use in toilet), in case your water system fails (or the city's). We had NO WATER coming from city system for a couple days after Charlie.

I always save my 2 ltr coke bottles, as well as plastic gallon milk containers and fill with water. I put them inthe freezer to help keep everything as cold a possible for as long as possible in case you lose power. Fill up bath tub with water to flush toilets etc. Make sure to have car chargers for phones...no electricity...you can always charge in the car.

Before we had a "safe room," we did not fill the bathtub, because we would go in it if need be....the frozen soda bottles is always a good tip.

[Michele B]

Just booked a flight to Denver... I’m not sticking around for this one. As much as I enjoy the storm it’s the aftermath of no power boredom and no air conditioning that is unbearable . FYI for any others. The flights are cheap from pbi to Denver .

was just in denver after a few days in Albuquerque and sante fe, intense tsrom activity every day in the afternoon due to the monsoon...enjoy denver, hit redrocks for a show if you can

I think I'd like to see Denver right about now.....

[rudd]

Long time lurker, first time poster. Just saw that people were ordering cases of water on Amazon Prime and had them delivered within the hour via PrimeNow in South Florida. Worth a shot if you can't make it out to the stores until you get off work.

[Michele B]

I honestly would have laughed at the thought that this would emerge from this area a hurricane due to Hispanola or Puerto Rico, but I am completely impressed by the Satellite presentation of Dorian right now. Currently making plans as we speak to head down to cover the landfall of Dorian somewhere along the FL coastline this weekend the way this is looking at the moment! Amazing what a LLC relocation can do to a forecast. I really hope everyone is taking this seriously in FL, especially if this really slows down as it interacts with that ridge. I can only foresee some slight shear from the ULL, but at this pace, the ULL will outpace Dorian

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis_goes16-meso2_20190828195957.jpg

"Best looking" hurricane we've had in a long time.

[KWT]

Another convective blow up going up on the northern eyewall which will keep obscuring the eye that is starting to form and really help to deepen the system over the next 12hrs. Conditions aloft look really nice at the moment and once it really clears PR I'd imagine the convection will deepen and it will really pull off a classic look.

Michele B - I think category-5 Michael would disagree!

[Michele B]

Long time lurker, first time poster. Just saw that people were ordering cases of water on Amazon Prime and had them delivered within the hour via PrimeNow in South Florida. Worth a shot if you can't make it out to the stores until you get off work.

In our area (NOT in a big city by any means), Wal-Mart will deliver, too. FREE.

[toad strangler]

Long time lurker, first time poster. Just saw that people were ordering cases of water on Amazon Prime and had them delivered within the hour via PrimeNow in South Florida. Worth a shot if you can't make it out to the stores until you get off work.

Or stock up with 20 cases on June 1st like I do every year.

[Kingarabian]

I honestly would have laughed at the thought that this would emerge from this area a hurricane due to Hispanola or Puerto Rico, but I am completely impressed by the Satellite presentation of Dorian right now. Currently making plans as we speak to head down to cover the landfall of Dorian somewhere along the FL coastline this weekend the way this is looking at the moment! Amazing what a LLC relocation can do to a forecast. I really hope everyone is taking this seriously in FL, especially if this really slows down as it interacts with that ridge. I can only foresee some slight shear from the ULL, but at this pace, the ULL will outpace Dorian

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis_goes16-meso2_20190828195957.jpg

"Best looking" hurricane we've had in a long time.

2017 was only 2 years ago lol

[jasons2k]

It’s DMIN. Convection will blow-up overnight.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The ULL is retreating and the northern outflow channel is becoming well established. Also notice the outflow moisture from Erin's convection remnants are dropping in. The dry air is subsequently blocked off at the Mona passage between Hisp and PR. So dry air entrainment looks highly unlikely for the next day or so at least. Also Dorian with the eyewall and organization today can wall off any that gets in. Not a lot of shear ahead for Dorian and what is there will won't hurt it much.

Low shear, moist air, warm seas and tracking around the periphery of the Atlantic high...where else would a hurricane want to be? Florida folks- thinking of you.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

https://col.st/pGyqW

[xironman]

The meso to the north is awesome, maybe some RI

[jasons2k]

tropical cyclones with pinhole eyes are associated with rapid intensification

Folks, Dorian has a pin hole eye.

It’s not a fully formed eye or eyewall structure yet. Far, far from being a dreaded “pinhole eye”