ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

Worth noting that further east now could actually mean further west later on, as counterintuitive as it sounds. Here's a good breakdown of the 12Z EPS members illustrating what I mean.

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1166811538130374656



 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1166811540097503232



 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1166811905878573056



 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1166812262197280768



 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1166812902621405195



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1166818730204004352

[pgoss11]

Have chased almost every hurricane for the past 20+ years. It's a long story not going to bore you lol.

Was within 2 miles of the eye of Michael last year in Panama City, FL. My first Cat 5 with gusts to 185mph.

Before flying I was a hurricane forecaster and I guess it's still in my blood. Parking lot garages are where I make my stand. Above the storm surge and the stairwells offer bulletproof protection. Afterwards I help those trapped and in need.

That being said Hurricane Dorian has my attention. My initial gut is we may see a Cat 5 on this one. There's nothing in the way of synoptics to stop this thing. It's too early to call but for me to get on here and post means the internal radar isn't liking what I'm seeing.

If it goes major I'll be heading from Houston into the gauntlet. If you guys are interested I'll post from the danger zone as I have done several times before.

Ready for the usual wise-cracks and naysayers lol. But have never had a problem and don't anticipate any this time. It's one heck of an adventure if you know what you're doing.

Prepare early in Florida. Within a day or so there won't be any supplies.

Thanks guys.

Chuck

I remember you! Good luck and be safe Rail Dawg.

[pgoss11]

This morning Jim Cantore made an interesting observation worth repeating now - he said Dorian has been favoring the right side of the cone and by my observation it seems to be doing that still, per the SJU radar that shows it on a 340 or 350 heading.

It's good news for Puerto Rico and I hope it will be good news for Florida too. I think too much stock is placed on the "robust ridge" - but many are forgetting the trough moving through the eastern states right now is robust, too, and is forecast to recurve Erin.

We have to remember Erin (and prior TD6) were in the same area for almost the past week - a trough carved in the atmosphere for that long just does not disappear overnight, and it will take time for the ridge to rebuild.

Jim might have really struck on the heart of the matter when it comes to Erin's track.

Some might recall the scene in "Hoosiers" when old Shooter had to fill in for the coach, and Shooter's observation that the other team was "picking [the basketball] low all night" - and that's what lead to their winning the game.

It's the same in a sense with Dorian - once something in motion sets a pattern usually it remains..

It’s funny you mention this. I’ve been thinking all day that Dorian has always been to the right side of the forecasted track. Not that is means it will continue to do so but it is interesting you just brought this point up. Be safe my Florida peeps!

[northjaxpro]

Have chased almost every hurricane for the past 20+ years. It's a long story not going to bore you lol.

Was within 2 miles of the eye of Michael last year in Panama City, FL. My first Cat 5 with gusts to 185mph.

Before flying I was a hurricane forecaster and I guess it's still in my blood. Parking lot garages are where I make my stand. Above the storm surge and the stairwells offer bulletproof protection. Afterwards I help those trapped and in need.

That being said Hurricane Dorian has my attention. My initial gut is we may see a Cat 5 on this one. There's nothing in the way of synoptics to stop this thing. It's too early to call but for me to get on here and post means the internal radar isn't liking what I'm seeing.

If it goes major I'll be heading from Houston into the gauntlet. If you guys are interested I'll post from the danger zone as I have done several times before.

Ready for the usual wise-cracks and naysayers lol. But have never had a problem and don't anticipate any this time. It's one heck of an adventure if you know what you're doing.

Prepare early in Florida. Within a day or so there won't be any supplies.

Thanks guys.

Chuck

Excellent Post Rail Dawg. I am one through the years to not make very extreme observations , only when I thnk it to be in doing it so rationally prudent in.years of analysis. I have seen a potential of observing extremely dangerous tropical cyclones this close in.the region numerous times. We have seen several Cat 4 hurricanes , but Andrew and Michael last year have been the only occasions we have seen Cat 5 tropical cyclones strike in our region of Florida in recent memory.

Based on what we are seeing currently, and how rapidly Dorian is developing and strengthening, he will be a solid Cat 2 and maybe a low end major hurricane when I awaken tomorrow morning (in between power naps lol..)

I have been absolutely beyond amazed how Dorian fought off an hostile envrionment and even more amazed how the cyclone traversed tight passed Puerto Rico and well north of Hispaniola yo avoid major land interaction.

There is nothing.left , other than Eyewall Replacement Cycles, that can slow Dorian 's intensification from here on out until he makes landfall somewhere along the Florida East Coast late Sunday or early Monday morning.

Heck, the best optimal conditions with very low vertical wind shear, the very warm ssts and the Gulf Stream influence are still yet to be tapped by Dorian . This will happen when the cyclone reaches the Bahamas beginning during the day Saturday. I dwould not be stunned to see Dorian reach Cat 5 intensity late this weekend or just prior to landfall.

Be safe out there Rail Dawg. Safe chasing!!

[1900hurricane]

dang they really missed the center....

The still managed to get 68 kt SFMR in the southern eyewall, which is pretty impressive in its own right. They also went down a little to 750 mb from 700 mb. I wonder if that's maybe because of the second plane coming in.

[PavelGaborik10]

CNN's Tom Sater talking as if it was a foregone conclusion earlier that Dorian will never end up in the Gulf. Now I'm not saying Dorian is gulf bound but to act as if the possibility isn't there is just simply irresponsible imo.

[Bluehawk]

Hello, everyone. I've been reading this forum for a few years now, being my go-to source for more in depth analysis for storms (of course, I do follow nhc noaa's advisories!). I am very thankful for all the wealth of information I find here. I probably understand half the lingo as I am no meteorologist, but I do my best to try to understand the possibilities and the best action route.
This is my first post - please forgive my newbie tone. We live in Boca Raton West, Fl. It's not that Dorian makes me nervous - I was much more scared with Irma (lived in S Broward then), and we evacuated pretty early. It's that I am absolutely at a loss of how prepared should we be at this point, with so much still in the air - both direction and intensity. For those of you living in S Fl, you know everyone jokes about the storms, and 3/4 of your friends don't even know what's going on (the "wake me up when it's a cat. 3 please).
So, let's say this makes landfall in Palm Beach or nearby. Given we live about 12 miles away from the coast (no flood zone), how much could we expect it to weaken - if at all - until it gets around to our place?
We have impact windows, but not on the glass doors (was praying for one more year storm-free, to be able to fix those up too). So we are trying to decide tonight whether we need to purchase the necessary materials to board them up.

[1900hurricane]

Drop from the S eyewall that rotated around to the east by splashdown.

[ozonepete]

Still does not seem to be following the forecast track. Looks to be moving more NNW than NW. While the usual forecasts do well with track and have trouble with intensity, this one has been difficult on both. Even now, as the intensity forecasts are consolidating and starting to work out better, this one has been a real problem with track and still is.

[jasons2k]

Hello, everyone. I've been reading this forum for a few years now, being my go-to source for more in depth analysis for storms (of course, I do follow nhc noaa's advisories!). I am very thankful for all the wealth of information I find here. I probably understand half the lingo as I am no meteorologist, but I do my best to try to understand the possibilities and the best action route.
This is my first post - please forgive my newbie tone. We live in Boca Raton West, Fl. It's not that Dorian makes me nervous - I was much more scared with Irma (lived in S Broward then), and we evacuated pretty early. It's that I am absolutely at a loss of how prepared should we be at this point, with so much still in the air - both direction and intensity. For those of you living in S Fl, you know everyone jokes about the storms, and 3/4 of your friends don't even know what's going on (the "wake me up when it's a cat. 3 please).
So, let's say this makes landfall in Palm Beach or nearby. Given we live about 12 miles away from the coast (no flood zone), how much could we expect it to weaken - if at all - until it gets around to our place?
We have impact windows, but not on the glass doors (was praying for one more year storm-free, to be able to fix those up too). So we are trying to decide tonight whether we need to purchase the necessary materials to board them up.

The old rule of thumb is always prepare for a category worse than forecast, in case there are any last-minute surprises.

We just witnessed that with Matthew.

[Highteeld]

Worth noting that further east now could actually mean further west later on, as counterintuitive as it sounds. Here's a good breakdown of the 12Z EPS members illustrating what I mean.

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1166811538130374656
https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1166811540097503232
https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1166811905878573056
https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1166812262197280768
https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1166812902621405195
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1166818730204004352

brings miami back in play. tomer is a super smart dude

[beachman80]

Anyone see a chance that this could go south of Florida altogether...maybe affecting the Keys?

[abajan]

Worth noting that further east now could actually mean further west later on, as counterintuitive as it sounds. Here's a good breakdown of the 12Z EPS members illustrating what I mean.

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1166811538130374656
https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1166811540097503232
https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1166811905878573056
https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1166812262197280768
https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1166812902621405195
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1166818730204004352

brings miami back in play. tomer is a super smart dude

Actually, Miami never got out of play.

[northjaxpro]

Still does not seem to be following the forecast track. Looks to be moving more NNW than NW. While the usual forecasts do well with track and have trouble with intensity, this one has been difficult on both. Even now, as the intensity forecasts are consolidating and starting to work out better, this one has been a real problem with track and still is.

Hey Ozonepete!! Yeah, GFS has been a.amazingly consistent so far in being accurate in being to the right of ithe projected forecast track points. It is making.me wonder jut a bit if the GFS could be onto something about its track reasoning in the next 4-5 days. Pete you share my thoughts on this?

[miami33]

Hello, everyone. I've been reading this forum for a few years now, being my go-to source for more in depth analysis for storms (of course, I do follow nhc noaa's advisories!). I am very thankful for all the wealth of information I find here. I probably understand half the lingo as I am no meteorologist, but I do my best to try to understand the possibilities and the best action route.
This is my first post - please forgive my newbie tone. We live in Boca Raton West, Fl. It's not that Dorian makes me nervous - I was much more scared with Irma (lived in S Broward then), and we evacuated pretty early. It's that I am absolutely at a loss of how prepared should we be at this point, with so much still in the air - both direction and intensity. For those of you living in S Fl, you know everyone jokes about the storms, and 3/4 of your friends don't even know what's going on (the "wake me up when it's a cat. 3 please).
So, let's say this makes landfall in Palm Beach or nearby. Given we live about 12 miles away from the coast (no flood zone), how much could we expect it to weaken - if at all - until it gets around to our place?
We have impact windows, but not on the glass doors (was praying for one more year storm-free, to be able to fix those up too). So we are trying to decide tonight whether we need to purchase the necessary materials to board them up.

I would buy the needed supplies if I were you. I live in Miami and have some impact windows and roll down shutters to cover other openings. I still need to cover my 1940's pretty (but not hurricane-proof) front door. I'll buy a pre-cut piece of 5/8" plywood to fit in the door frame. Stay safe Bluehawk!

[cainjamin]

Pressure from AF plane down to about 990 with a 10-15 kt wind, so likely between 988-989 right now. Still strengthening quickly.

[SouthDadeFish]

Down to 990 mb extrap on the Air Force flight. Certainly intensifying still.

[Yellow Evan]

Still 70 knots based on latest USAF but now around 990 mbar.

[Aric Dunn]

eye diameter is getting cut in half again.. RI is likely coming..

[Blinhart]

alright here we go. The football has tipped over and angular momentum has shifted to the NW and will be able to wrap to the south. then its all downhill from there.. another couple hours. hopefully while recon is in there.

next recon set will be a center pass. but pressure is already 997. probably 985 to 990 right now.

I'll bid we see a 987 tonight. Stabilization and ERC tomorrow, then boom when it gets into the Central Bahamas. Nice job this storm Aric, I've been reading while I've been on the road. This storm has strong potential to be a Cat 4 before landfall.

I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop down to the mid 970's tonight, and go through a couple EWRC in the next few days and get down to the 920-930 range before landfall. I can definitely see this one getting to Cat 5 (and not just barely).