ATL: DORIAN - Models

[sma10]

catastrophic

https://i.imgur.com/uyUq05h.png

Do you have more of these zoomed in shots? They're fantastic

[AtlanticWind]

The slower motion could allow the storm to turn earlier in subsequent runs (can only hope)

[HDGator]

catastrophic

https://i.imgur.com/uyUq05h.png

Yep, looking at one of the worst case scenarios into one of the most highly populated areas.
The evacuation is almost undoable without quick moves that will likely not happen tomorrow.
Let's hope that the 'middle' solution to the track a 100+ miles to the north actually happens.

[sma10]

The slower motion could allow the storm to turn earlier in subsequent runs (can only hope)

Certainly a possibility. We may not necessarily be witnessing an end game, but rather, the beginning of a trend

[AxaltaRacing24]

I could be wrong but wasn't the Euro a bit south with Florence at 96-120 hours as well?

Possibly. But tonight, every single model except the GFS came to an agreement. A devastating one.

[STRiZZY]

catastrophic

https://i.imgur.com/uyUq05h.png

Yep, looking at one of the worst case scenarios into one of the most highly populated areas.
The evacuation is almost undoable without quick moves that will likely not happen tomorrow.
Let's hope that the 'middle' solution to the track a 100+ miles to the north actually happens.

Ya hate to wish it on others but it would definitely be a "better" situation.

[jlauderdal]

I knew it. Damn the Ukmet is good first to sniff it out days ago.

Im a euro hugger but the gfs cant be discounted, it has some big wins

[AtlanticWind]

The slower motion could allow the storm to turn earlier in subsequent runs (can only hope)

Certainly a possibility. We may not necessarily be witnessing an end game, but rather, the beginning of a trend

That's the thing , the previous run had Dorian enter the gulf . This does not.
Nothing locked in yet. But is worrisome for us in South florida

[BobHarlem]

Spine running up Florida with dirty side in the more populated areas. Not good for any evac situation.

[Highteeld]

[sponger]

Ugly and devastating.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=168

[AtlanticWind]

Funny ,ends up near where GFS has it . A big difference on how it gets there

[AxaltaRacing24]

Ugly and devastating.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=168

One of the ugliest runs I have ever seen from the Euro. and this isn't a "model storm"

[jlauderdal]

Funny ,ends up near where GFS has it . A big difference on how it gets there

Yes, the euro is trending towards the gfs, there is a break in the ridge, for south floridians this trend is good IF it continues

[Bhuggs]

If anything, models are coming into an agreement of a slower storm, potential stall, and ridge breaking down sooner. We’ll see what euro ensembles look like, but 18z had a few hints of a stall and north turn closer to the coast. 5 day cone will just barely be touching land, and with these factors in play, the next 5 days are going to be busy busy in the model thread

[STRiZZY]

Funny ,ends up near where GFS has it . A big difference on how it gets there

Yes, the euro is trending towards the gfs, there is a break in the ridge, for south floridians this trend is good IF it continues

Wait... What? In what way did that just trend towards the GFS?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Funny ,ends up near where GFS has it . A big difference on how it gets there

Yes, the euro is trending towards the gfs, there is a break in the ridge, for south floridians this trend is good IF it continues

Wait... What? In what way did that just trend towards the GFS?

It didn't IMO. It was very close to the CMC, UK, and ICON if anything.

[AtlanticWind]

This still 5 days out , our best hope in Florida if the model trends have the north turn earlier (sorry Bahamas not
wishing this on you)

[sma10]

The slower motion could allow the storm to turn earlier in subsequent runs (can only hope)

Certainly a possibility. We may not necessarily be witnessing an end game, but rather, the beginning of a trend

That's the thing , the previous run had Dorian enter the gulf . This does not.
Nothing locked in yet. But is worrisome for us in South florida

Yep my thinking is that if the future runs start leaning ever so much further west, it's probably lights out and a very very bad situation. However, i can see a scenario where the storm comes near the shore, stalls, and then escapes north.

What does seem clear, at least now, is that this doesn't look like a sure fire, no doubt peninsula crosser

[STRiZZY]

Yes, the euro is trending towards the gfs, there is a break in the ridge, for south floridians this trend is good IF it continues

Wait... What? In what way did that just trend towards the GFS?

It didn't.

Exactly