ATL: DORIAN - Models

[TheStormExpert]

Geez!! Was expecting the Euro to trend north not south! Talk about no consensus when compared to the GFS.

[Bocadude85]

Funny ,ends up near where GFS has it . A big difference on how it gets there

Yes, the euro is trending towards the gfs, there is a break in the ridge, for south floridians this trend is good IF it continues

Yes the steering currents collapses between the two ridges, Dorian moves around the ridge displaced to the east. Kind of similar scenario to Hurricane Frances

[jlauderdal]

Funny ,ends up near where GFS has it . A big difference on how it gets there

Yes, the euro is trending towards the gfs, there is a break in the ridge, for south floridians this trend is good IF it continues

Wait... What? In what way did that just trend towards the GFS?

The gfs turns the system north around daytona...the euro is now turning the system over the peninsula too instead of going out to the gulf...the euro now escapes much further east

[AtlanticWind]

Yes, the euro is trending towards the gfs, there is a break in the ridge, for south floridians this trend is good IF it continues

Wait... What? In what way did that just trend towards the GFS?

It didn't IMO. It was very close to the CMC, UK, and ICON if anything.

I know what he means , the Euro does finally break the ridge ,but unfortunately it is right in the middle of florida
If this break could happen a little earlier could be good for florida

[jlauderdal]

This still 5 days out , our best hope in Florida if the model trends have the north turn earlier (sorry Bahamas not
wishing this on you)

Exactly, yes the euro has a direct hit in my area but if the trend on the turn continues it never makes landfall in south florida

[Stormi]

Funny ,ends up near where GFS has it . A big difference on how it gets there

Yes, the euro is trending towards the gfs, there is a break in the ridge, for south floridians this trend is good IF it continues

Wait... What? In what way did that just trend towards the GFS?

Closer to others though...my apologizes, I'm a bit tired

[HDGator]

Certainly a possibility. We may not necessarily be witnessing an end game, but rather, the beginning of a trend

That's the thing , the previous run had Dorian enter the gulf . This does not.
Nothing locked in yet. But is worrisome for us in South florida

Yep my thinking is that if the future runs start leaning ever so much further west, it's probably lights out and a very very bad situation. However, i can see a scenario where the storm comes near the shore, stalls, and then escapes north.

What does seem clear, at least now, is that this doesn't look like a sure fire, no doubt peninsula crosser

I don't think at this point we can say with much certainty whether Dorian reaches the peninsula in Broward County or 300+ miles North at the Florida - Georgia line.
How you can be certain it's not a peninsula crosser is questionable at best.

[jlauderdal]

Wait... What? In what way did that just trend towards the GFS?

It didn't IMO. It was very close to the CMC, UK, and ICON if anything.

I know what he means , the Euro does finally break the ridge ,but unfortunately it is right in the middle of florida
If this break could happen a little earlier could be good for florida

Yes, we only need approx 60 more miles to the east on the turn, thats not much..big diff getting the west side of a hurricane vs theveye

[STRiZZY]

Yes, the euro is trending towards the gfs, there is a break in the ridge, for south floridians this trend is good IF it continues

Wait... What? In what way did that just trend towards the GFS?

The gfs turns the system north around daytona...the euro is now turning the system over the peninsula too instead of going out to the gulf...the euro now escapes much further east

And MUCH further south. Can't justify this as a trend towards the GFS. The GFS has been showing a much more gradual track to the NW, not stopping on a dime and turning due north. The Euro shifted south, it trended towards the Ukie, making landfall nearly 300mi south of what the latest GFS depicted.

[blp]

I knew it. Damn the Ukmet is good first to sniff it out days ago.

Im a euro hugger but the gfs cant be discounted, it has some big wins

I am with you the GFS is a great model. I just think that the Ukie does really well with these types of systems coming out of the Caribbean and approaching from the east. Something about how it handles that bermuda high. I don't know what it is but it has made me a believer.

[jlauderdal]

Wait... What? In what way did that just trend towards the GFS?

The gfs turns the system north around daytona...the euro is now turning the system over the peninsula too instead of going out to the gulf...the euro now escapes much further east

And MUCH further south. Can't justify this as a trend towards the GFS. The GFS has been showing a much more gradual track to the NW, not stopping on a dime and turning due north. The Euro shifted south, it trended towards the Ukie, making landfall nearly 300mi south of what the latest GFS depicted.

The euro has been south, that hasnt changed..the turn is a big change showing an escape route...its one run so.lets see

[USTropics]

While the GFS solution isn't a high probability one, I wouldn't rule it out. The ECMWF now has a slower system and a break in the ridge for this to turn north sooner then previous runs, hence the crawl up the spine on 00z run. The GFS just forecasts this to happen sooner. The NHC will continue to rely on a blend of operational runs, ensemble mean guidance (including FSU super ensembles, the highest skill at track), and the TVCN consensus model. BTW the UKMET does do 18z and 6z runs starting this year (the operational only goes out to 48 hours but the ensembles are run to 168 hours), and most of the ensemble guidance on 18z and 12z are north of the operational runs for 00z and 12z.

[northjaxpro]

Interesting 00Z EURO run. So, indeed EURO could very well be playing catch-up to the GFS with the north turn up the coast? The weakness will be there apparently. . This was a potential very telling EURO run.

The next series of runs really will be very interesting.....

[Bocadude85]

6z early track guidance shows the TVCN has shifted NE some, doubt you see the NHC adjust the forecast track much.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_06z.png

[jlauderdal]

Interesting 00Z EURO run. So, indeed EURO could very well be playing catch-up to the GFS with the north turn up the coast? The weakness will be there apparently. . This was a potential very telling EURO run.

The next series of runs really will be very interesting.....

Meanwhile we have the rare middle of the night thunderstorm going, woke me up just in time to check the euro, nature knew the euro was running, lol

[STRiZZY]

The gfs turns the system north around daytona...the euro is now turning the system over the peninsula too instead of going out to the gulf...the euro now escapes much further east

And MUCH further south. Can't justify this as a trend towards the GFS. The GFS has been showing a much more gradual track to the NW, not stopping on a dime and turning due north. The Euro shifted south, it trended towards the Ukie, making landfall nearly 300mi south of what the latest GFS depicted.

The euro has been south, that hasnt changed..the turn is a big change showing an escape route...its one run so.lets see

The Euro has been south but this is even further than the last 12z/00z was and it included the SW dip the ukie and other model have depicted. Granted the turn happens sooner and more abruptly but once again, there's no way this latest Euro run is a trend towards what the GFS has been spitting out the last 48hrs.

[AtlanticWind]

I will be watching closely on the Next Euro run ,will it still show a sharp north turn and will it be the same
or a little more east or west.

[AtlanticWind]

[I I think why the Euro did not get this into gulf is because it was slower with the storm

About 12 hours slower I think

[ozonepete]

So what do we think now that the 00Z euro is out? Track is no longer any further southward bound than it has been. Moves to West Palm but then stalls dead out and starts to go north over the peninsula. Never gets into the GOM. After stalling over Fl starts moving up the coast to the Carolinas. It's actually now more of a northward bound coast hugger than the GFS. Both models agree on a stall of some kind with no move into the GOM. It reminds me a little of Matthew as far as a really hard forecast for FL. The bottom line is the euro and GFS are coming into more agreement which makes far southern FL a little less likely. Thats good for getting a better forecast but it still leaves a lot of questions.

[sma10]

That's the thing , the previous run had Dorian enter the gulf . This does not.
Nothing locked in yet. But is worrisome for us in South florida

Yep my thinking is that if the future runs start leaning ever so much further west, it's probably lights out and a very very bad situation. However, i can see a scenario where the storm comes near the shore, stalls, and then escapes north.

What does seem clear, at least now, is that this doesn't look like a sure fire, no doubt peninsula crosser

How you can be certain it's not a peninsula crosser is questionable at best.

That isn't what I said at all. I said that it doesn't look like a sure fire, no doubt peninsula crosser. Meaning there is doubt as to whether the system will reach the Gulf. It MIGHT reach the Gulf ... but there is plenty of room for doubt