ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

https://www.facebook.com/denisphillipsw ... =3&theater

[eastcoastFL]

and just like that eyw diameter is halved.. pressure should soon respond and winds will go up..

https://i.ibb.co/JdYkRhW/18.gif

Amazing . This time yesterday ppl were still debating its survival.

Yeah, it's like to opposite of Debby (2000). They Keys (for awhile) thought they were gonna get leveled when the GFDL showed a Cat 4. Then poof.

I forgot bout the gfdl is it dead?

[wx98]

Radar from 10:02am AST to 8:49pm AST:

https://i.imgur.com/XO0WFXe.gif

Larger: https://imgur.com/E7tiN8D
From: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/i ... A-N0Q-0-12

Luckily for Puerto Rico those dire forecasts of 8+ inches of rain didn’t materialize.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Has a hurricane speed ever been issued at 81 mph? LOL, according to this map it is.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... p=forecast

Maps like that use the Forecast Advisory data to create the map.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/

That has 70 knots. 70 knots = 80.5546 mph, which rounds to 81mph. They don't round to 5mph increments on that map.

[1900hurricane]

TXNT28 KNES 290028
TCSNTL

A. 05L (DORIAN)

B. 29/0001Z

C. 19.2N

D. 65.6W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...A DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED WITHIN MG RESULTS
IN AN ENO OF 4.5, AN EADJ OF 0.0, AND A DT OF 4.5 WITH NO BANDING FEATURE
ADDED. THE MET IS 4.0 AND THE PT IS 4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

I'm surprised they found DG in there.

[Ian2401]

how is the ridge looking? weaker/stronger than expected?

[Aric Dunn]

eye is clearing out of IR ....

[hipshot]

https://www.facebook.com/denisphillipswfts/photos/a.143758032351345/2527298050663986/?type=3&theater

https://i.imgur.com/bYUD5Hf.png

Looks yummy!

[Bluehawk]

Hello, everyone. I've been reading this forum for a few years now, being my go-to source for more in depth analysis for storms (of course, I do follow nhc noaa's advisories!). I am very thankful for all the wealth of information I find here. I probably understand half the lingo as I am no meteorologist, but I do my best to try to understand the possibilities and the best action route.
This is my first post - please forgive my newbie tone. We live in Boca Raton West, Fl. It's not that Dorian makes me nervous - I was much more scared with Irma (lived in S Broward then), and we evacuated pretty early. It's that I am absolutely at a loss of how prepared should we be at this point, with so much still in the air - both direction and intensity. For those of you living in S Fl, you know everyone jokes about the storms, and 3/4 of your friends don't even know what's going on (the "wake me up when it's a cat. 3 please).
So, let's say this makes landfall in Palm Beach or nearby. Given we live about 12 miles away from the coast (no flood zone), how much could we expect it to weaken - if at all - until it gets around to our place?
We have impact windows, but not on the glass doors (was praying for one more year storm-free, to be able to fix those up too). So we are trying to decide tonight whether we need to purchase the necessary materials to board them up.

I would buy the needed supplies if I were you. I live in Miami and have some impact windows and roll down shutters to cover other openings. I still need to cover my 1940's pretty (but not hurricane-proof) front door. I'll buy a pre-cut piece of 5/8" plywood to fit in the door frame. Stay safe Bluehawk!

Thank you. We have gas, water, canned food, batteries, radio, flashlights, etc. Just went ahead and ordered plywood from HD, with pick up in store tonight or tomorrow. There were only 17 left at the local Boca store. Need to get charcoal and lighter tomorrow... anyone know if stores run out of these early?!
Also, thank you @jasons for your reply! When Matthew came, we were still in Cooper City (which is between Pembroke Pines and Davie), so for us it was not bad. But yes... best be prepared for the worst.

[Blown Away]

We need somebody to post the satellite loop with the NHC track so we can start seeing any wobble L or R... I used to have a link...

[Highteeld]

TXNT28 KNES 290028
TCSNTL

A. 05L (DORIAN)

B. 29/0001Z

C. 19.2N

D. 65.6W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...A DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED WITHIN MG RESULTS
IN AN ENO OF 4.5, AN EADJ OF 0.0, AND A DT OF 4.5 WITH NO BANDING FEATURE
ADDED. THE MET IS 4.0 AND THE PT IS 4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

I'm surprised they found DG in there.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2019AL05/4KMSRBDC/2019AL05_4KMSRBDC_201908290001.jpg

This must be it

[johngaltfla]

And so it begins. Buckle up fellow Floridians..

https://www.winknews.com/2019/08/28/col ... il-stores/

[cycloneye]

Video from Levi Cowan.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1166883202738376704

[Highteeld]

Sh*t. Would be about 986 mb wind adjusted. Faster than I thought.

[storm4u]

We need somebody to post the satellite loop with the NHC track so we can start seeing any wobble L or R... I used to have a link...

Was just about to post the same thing...probably the same link I had

They posted the 12z Euro Ensembles on TWC and Dorion is north and east of all of them

[otowntiger]

TXNT28 KNES 290028
TCSNTL

A. 05L (DORIAN)

B. 29/0001Z

C. 19.2N

D. 65.6W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...A DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED WITHIN MG RESULTS
IN AN ENO OF 4.5, AN EADJ OF 0.0, AND A DT OF 4.5 WITH NO BANDING FEATURE
ADDED. THE MET IS 4.0 AND THE PT IS 4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

I'm surprised they found DG in there.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2019AL05/4KMSRBDC/2019AL05_4KMSRBDC_201908290001.jpg

What’s DG?

[ozonepete]

Yeah Pete that is sound reasoning from a fellow analyst. Yeah what you say makes good sense. I tell you what, if the GFS ends up getting this close to being righr with the potential north track
that would be REALLY something for the model for sure in this instance.
It would really show just how the improvements made to the model have made much better.forercasting, especially medium to long range (5-7 days out).God knows we need all the better in this business in forecasting.

Yes, Jax my fellow met. You are our north Florida mainstay.

And GFS is earning it's new stripes.

[Blown Away]

If the current NHC track/intensity verifies, Dorian will become the 2nd MAJOR hurricane to strike from the SE between Vero and Jacksonville in recorded history...

[1900hurricane]

TXNT28 KNES 290028
TCSNTL

A. 05L (DORIAN)

B. 29/0001Z

C. 19.2N

D. 65.6W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...A DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED WITHIN MG RESULTS
IN AN ENO OF 4.5, AN EADJ OF 0.0, AND A DT OF 4.5 WITH NO BANDING FEATURE
ADDED. THE MET IS 4.0 AND THE PT IS 4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

I'm surprised they found DG in there.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2019AL05/4KMSRBDC/2019AL05_4KMSRBDC_201908290001.jpg

This must be it

https://i.imgur.com/xtyYLoA.png

That's the 2350 image, but I also forgot that RAMMB runs a degree or two colder for some reason (their corresponding image is below). It's probably right on the cusp. I actually went to ADT to get eye readout temperatures, but it hasn't found the eye yet (because of course).

[Nancy Smar]

URNT12 KNHC 290128
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052019
A. 29/00:48:20Z
B. 19.29 deg N 065.74 deg W
C. 700 mb 3019 m
D. 988 mb
E. 065 deg 26 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C12
H. 61 kt
I. 297 deg 6 nm 00:46:30Z
J. 023 deg 60 kt
K. 297 deg 6 nm 00:46:30Z
L. 75 kt
M. 084 deg 5 nm 00:50:30Z
N. 194 deg 65 kt
O. 095 deg 6 nm 00:51:00Z
P. 10 C / 3050 m
Q. 14 C / 3062 m
R. 2 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF302 1205A DORIAN OB 12
MAX FL WIND 76 KT 046 / 6 NM 23:39:30Z