ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

We need somebody to post the satellite loop with the NHC track so we can start seeing any wobble L or R... I used to have a link...

Was just about to post the same thing...probably the same link I had

They posted the 12z Euro Ensembles on TWC and Dorion is north and east of all of them

Here is one:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0
From: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

[gailwarning]

Couple suggestions from someone who has ridden out a few of these.

Start freezing some big blocks of ice, say in gallon jugs or even bigger if you have containers. Eat the frozen stuff to free up space if you have to. Block ice keeps much better than cubes. Even if you don't need it, a neighbor might, and it's hard to come by after a storm. Plus, you'll have some extra drinking water if you need it.

Draw your own water instead of wasting money on bottled. Go to the camping Dept at Walmart for cheap, safe containers, or save some of your own. If you have concerns about whether the water will be safe after a few days, google treatment methods. Couple drops of bleach will do it.

Lots to be said for peanut butter or other spreadables that don't have to be refrigerated, and bread. Buy the bread early because it sells out.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

We need somebody to post the satellite loop with the NHC track so we can start seeing any wobble L or R... I used to have a link...

Was just about to post the same thing...probably the same link I had

They posted the 12z Euro Ensembles on TWC and Dorion is north and east of all of them

Here is one:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0
From: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

And here is another:
https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/U1aqc3
RealEarth, though the track is basically an unlabeled line.

[1900hurricane]

TXNT28 KNES 290028
TCSNTL

A. 05L (DORIAN)

B. 29/0001Z

C. 19.2N

D. 65.6W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...A DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED WITHIN MG RESULTS
IN AN ENO OF 4.5, AN EADJ OF 0.0, AND A DT OF 4.5 WITH NO BANDING FEATURE
ADDED. THE MET IS 4.0 AND THE PT IS 4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

I'm surprised they found DG in there.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2019AL05/4KMSRBDC/2019AL05_4KMSRBDC_201908290001.jpg

What’s DG?

It's one of the colors on the BD IR curve. The colors are in order from warmest to coldest: Warm Medium Grey (WMG), Off-White (OW), Dark Grey (DG), Medium Grey (MG), Light Grey (LG), Black (B), White (W), Cold Medium Grey (CMG), and Cold Dark Grey (CDG). When doing Dvorak analysis, systems with warmer eyes and colder symmetrical CDOs are identified as stronger. For example, Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 had the warmest possible eye shade and the coldest possible CDO shade, earning it a T8.0, the highest on the scale.

[storm4u]

Thank you!!

We need somebody to post the satellite loop with the NHC track so we can start seeing any wobble L or R... I used to have a link...

Was just about to post the same thing...probably the same link I had

They posted the 12z Euro Ensembles on TWC and Dorion is north and east of all of them

Here is one:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0
From: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

[GCANE]

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 0, 192N, 657W, 70, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 40, 10, 30, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, , , 12, NEQ, 75, 45, 30, 45,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 0, 192N, 657W, 70, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, , , 12, NEQ, 75, 45, 30, 45,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 0, 192N, 657W, 70, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, , , 12, NEQ, 75, 45, 30, 45,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 12, 210N, 670W, 80, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 100, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 12, 210N, 670W, 80, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 100, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 12, 210N, 670W, 80, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 100, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 24, 229N, 683W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 40, 30, 40, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 24, 229N, 683W, 85, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 24, 229N, 683W, 85, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 36, 245N, 699W, 90, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 30, 40, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 36, 245N, 699W, 90, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 36, 245N, 699W, 90, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 10, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 48, 257N, 717W, 95, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 40, 50, 0, 0, 0, 115, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 48, 257N, 717W, 95, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 115, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 48, 257N, 717W, 95, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 10, 0, 0, 0, 115, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 72, 270N, 758W, 100, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 70, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 120, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 72, 270N, 758W, 100, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 120, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 96, 278N, 794W, 100, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 120, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 120, 284N, 818W, 80, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 100, 0,

[1900hurricane]

URNT12 KNHC 290128
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052019
A. 29/00:48:20Z
B. 19.29 deg N 065.74 deg W
C. 700 mb 3019 m
D. 988 mb
E. 065 deg 26 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C12
H. 61 kt
I. 297 deg 6 nm 00:46:30Z
J. 023 deg 60 kt
K. 297 deg 6 nm 00:46:30Z
L. 75 kt
M. 084 deg 5 nm 00:50:30Z
N. 194 deg 65 kt
O. 095 deg 6 nm 00:51:00Z
P. 10 C / 3050 m
Q. 14 C / 3062 m
R. 2 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF302 1205A DORIAN OB 12
MAX FL WIND 76 KT 046 / 6 NM 23:39:30Z

Closed at 12 nm, pretty close to my 10 nm estimation based on radar.

[TallyTracker]

[Highteeld]

Struggling with dry air again?

[GCANE]

AF302 reports closed eye, 12 nm diameter
4C warm core at 700mb

[aperson]

0z SHIPS has had bullish RI guidance and seems to be on point so far.

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

[CrazyC83]

The SFMR data supports 75 kt for the current intensity especially when combined with the rapidly falling pressure. Should be one more pass before the advisory.

[Michele B]

Couple suggestions from someone who has ridden out a few of these.

Start freezing some big blocks of ice, say in gallon jugs or even bigger if you have containers. Eat the frozen stuff to free up space if you have to. Block ice keeps much better than cubes. Even if you don't need it, a neighbor might, and it's hard to come by after a storm. Plus, you'll have some extra drinking water if you need it.

Draw your own water instead of wasting money on bottled. Go to the camping Dept at Walmart for cheap, safe containers, or save some of your own. If you have concerns about whether the water will be safe after a few days, google treatment methods. Couple drops of bleach will do it.

Lots to be said for peanut butter or other spreadables that don't have to be refrigerated, and bread. Buy the bread early because it sells out.

I was just about to start posting helpful hints for folks!

I usually freeze ice cubes....in ziplock bags - small ones. That way, when we want cold drinks, we can just take a ziplock bag out of the freezer and place it in a bowl or glass and have a pretty cold drink!

Have baby wipes, or clorox wipes to clean up.

Also, I will start soon to LAUNDER EVERYTHING! All towels, sheets, carpets, EVERYTHING that needs cleaning (but that I may not launder every laundry day), I WILL launder now. EVERYTHING is going to get dirty, especially considering you may be without power for several days (if you're lucky), and EVERYTHING WILL GET DIRTY QUICKLY, from sweating, working, cleaning up storm debris....

If you are afraid of the storm taking your roof or such, and have a plan to go into a "safe space" in your home (we do), I will place at least a week's worth of clothing with me in a plastic tote in the safe room. That way, if my house DID blow down around me, I will still have some of my own clothes to wear! Place (and wear) GOOD, COMFORTABLE SHOES, too.

I usually get crackers, rather than bread, as it will keep longer. You can spread all kinds of spreadables on it and eat it that way, too.

If supermarkets are sold out of bread, water, crackers and such, check the dollar stores.....

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 05, 2019082900, 03, OFCL, 3, 197N, 660W, 75, 986, HU,

986mb

[GeneratorPower]

Couple suggestions from someone who has ridden out a few of these.

Start freezing some big blocks of ice, say in gallon jugs or even bigger if you have containers. Eat the frozen stuff to free up space if you have to. Block ice keeps much better than cubes. Even if you don't need it, a neighbor might, and it's hard to come by after a storm. Plus, you'll have some extra drinking water if you need it.

Draw your own water instead of wasting money on bottled. Go to the camping Dept at Walmart for cheap, safe containers, or save some of your own. If you have concerns about whether the water will be safe after a few days, google treatment methods. Couple drops of bleach will do it.

Lots to be said for peanut butter or other spreadables that don't have to be refrigerated, and bread. Buy the bread early because it sells out.

I was just about to start posting helpful hints for folks!

I usually freeze ice cubes....in ziplock bags - small ones. That way, when we want cold drinks, we can just take a ziplock bag out of the freezer and place it in a bowl or glass and have a pretty cold drink!

Have baby wipes, or clorox wipes to clean up.

Also, I will start soon to LAUNDER EVERYTHING! All towels, sheets, carpets, EVERYTHING that needs cleaning (but that I may not launder every laundry day), I WILL launder now. EVERYTHING is going to get dirty, especially considering you may be without power for several days (if you're lucky), and EVERYTHING WILL GET DIRTY QUICKLY, from sweating, working, cleaning up storm debris....

If you are afraid of the storm taking your roof or such, and have a plan to go into a "safe space" in your home (we do), I will place at least a week's worth of clothing with me in a plastic tote in the safe room. That way, if my house DID blow down around me, I will still have some of my own clothes to wear! Place (and wear) GOOD, COMFORTABLE SHOES, too.

I usually get crackers, rather than bread, as it will keep longer. You can spread all kinds of spreadables on it and eat it that way, too.

If supermarkets are sold out of bread, water, crackers and such, check the dollar stores.....

All great ideas. Still, I think you’ve made an excellent case for simply GTFO days ahead of time.

[SoupBone]

Couple suggestions from someone who has ridden out a few of these.

Start freezing some big blocks of ice, say in gallon jugs or even bigger if you have containers. Eat the frozen stuff to free up space if you have to. Block ice keeps much better than cubes. Even if you don't need it, a neighbor might, and it's hard to come by after a storm. Plus, you'll have some extra drinking water if you need it.

Draw your own water instead of wasting money on bottled. Go to the camping Dept at Walmart for cheap, safe containers, or save some of your own. If you have concerns about whether the water will be safe after a few days, google treatment methods. Couple drops of bleach will do it.

Lots to be said for peanut butter or other spreadables that don't have to be refrigerated, and bread. Buy the bread early because it sells out.

I was just about to start posting helpful hints for folks!

I usually freeze ice cubes....in ziplock bags - small ones. That way, when we want cold drinks, we can just take a ziplock bag out of the freezer and place it in a bowl or glass and have a pretty cold drink!

Have baby wipes, or clorox wipes to clean up.

Also, I will start soon to LAUNDER EVERYTHING! All towels, sheets, carpets, EVERYTHING that needs cleaning (but that I may not launder every laundry day), I WILL launder now. EVERYTHING is going to get dirty, especially considering you may be without power for several days (if you're lucky), and EVERYTHING WILL GET DIRTY QUICKLY, from sweating, working, cleaning up storm debris....

If you are afraid of the storm taking your roof or such, and have a plan to go into a "safe space" in your home (we do), I will place at least a week's worth of clothing with me in a plastic tote in the safe room. That way, if my house DID blow down around me, I will still have some of my own clothes to wear! Place (and wear) GOOD, COMFORTABLE SHOES, too.

I usually get crackers, rather than bread, as it will keep longer. You can spread all kinds of spreadables on it and eat it that way, too.

If supermarkets are sold out of bread, water, crackers and such, check the dollar stores.....

For cold water, freeze a bunch of gallon jugs and put them in a "Yeti" style cooler. They will stay frozen for a week, and trust me, you will want cold stuff!

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is Dorian having issues with dry air right now? It looks kind of ragged on IR. Anyone know?

[drewschmaltz]

It seems rather possible that Dorian is stronger than all of the Euro ensembles & he continues to be a little right of forecast. Does that not make missing Florida entirely to the south viable? I mean... if we continued to see steady intensification and the ridge remains pronounced on the models... it might not take much to miss FL altogether. I'm in Orlando so I tend to wish cast the storms here. Seems stupid as I really don't want to deal with a major hurricane... I'm going to go out on a limb and say I bet landfall is in the keys.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Is Dorian having issues with dry air right now? It looks kind of ragged on IR. Anyone know?

I pointed this out earlier today but I think it was buried. Looks like wind shear increasing as a result of the ULL. You can clearly see the S-SE of the system is lacking outflow.