ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2139
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2401 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:04 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Is Dorian having issues with dry air right now? It looks kind of ragged on IR. Anyone know?

That's what i was wondering. Looks a lot worse on IR than it did an hour ago.
1 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Top
Laser30033003
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 52
Age: 55
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 1:24 pm
Location: Seminole, Fl

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2402 Postby Laser30033003 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:05 pm

Looks like the wind field is expanding.....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HDGator
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 242
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2004 3:03 pm
Location: Lewisville, NC

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2403 Postby HDGator » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:05 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Is Dorian having issues with dry air right now? It looks kind of ragged on IR. Anyone know?

The radar presentation out of PR is amazingly organized considering how bad it looked yesterday. It shows a well defined eye with broad bands of precipitation continuing to fill in.
Dorian is getting his game on and I'm not liking what I'm seeing so quickly north of PR.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2404 Postby jasons2k » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:06 pm

Just a friendly reminder that we have a full thread dedicated to Hurricane Preparation:
viewtopic.php?f=30&t=58904

Please post prep. tips or reference that thread and keep this thread focused on the storm. Thanks.
5 likes   
Top
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2405 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:06 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Is Dorian having issues with dry air right now? It looks kind of ragged on IR. Anyone know?


I pointed this out earlier today but I think it was buried. Looks like wind shear increasing as a result of the ULL. You can clearly see the S-SE of the system is lacking outflow.



Levi discussed the ULL potentially giving him issues with Southwest shear.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2139
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2406 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:07 pm

Doesn't look as good on radar either

Image
2 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Top
User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3359
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2407 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:08 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Is Dorian having issues with dry air right now? It looks kind of ragged on IR. Anyone know?


I pointed this out earlier today but I think it was buried. Looks like wind shear increasing as a result of the ULL. You can clearly see the S-SE of the system is lacking outflow.



Levi discussed the ULL potentially giving him issues with Southwest shear.


The storm is very one-sided and asymmetric as a result. Dry air from the Caribbean is probably getting entrained as a result of this shear. Gradual intensification is likely, but not rapid. Not until it's closing in on Florida, unfortunately.
1 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2408 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:10 pm

Radar is becoming extremely impressive. satellite will improve shortly.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2409 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:12 pm

are they purpose;y holding the minobs of the center pass ? lol everytime they do a center pass they are late. sheesh
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 739
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2410 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:13 pm

Man that 'tail' Dorian has is impressive. Powerful band. Image

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
3 likes   
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2411 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:14 pm

so far 989 with 25kts

pressure is probably down to 985.. or 984.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2139
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2412 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:14 pm

subtle, but looks like it's trying to fight back on sat

Image
2 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2413 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:16 pm

very impressive western Eyewall the last 15 minutes.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
HurricaneEric
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:06 am
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2414 Postby HurricaneEric » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:21 pm

Great discussion as always from Levi Cowan here: https://youtu.be/fqRyDuqFKB8

Of note, Levi seems to favor the batch of Euro ensembles that make Dorian stronger and landfalling further south (anywhere between Palm Beach County to Miami). Talked about how a stronger Dorian would feel the north-easterly flow from the ridge above more, causing it to target points further south on the FL peninsula. Also pointed out that the Euro ensembles pointing north are unrealistically weak considering the recent trends of Dorian’s intensity.

But of course, things can change.
Last edited by HurricaneEric on Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
6 likes   
Irene '99, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Irma '17 (storms I remember my area getting hurricane force winds/gusts).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and shouldn't be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the experts.
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2415 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:21 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Is Dorian having issues with dry air right now? It looks kind of ragged on IR. Anyone know?


I pointed this out earlier today but I think it was buried. Looks like wind shear increasing as a result of the ULL. You can clearly see the S-SE of the system is lacking outflow.



Levi discussed the ULL potentially giving him issues with Southwest shear.


They brought that up on the weather channel, but also followed it up with the southwest shear will be a short duration event as the ULL moves away. I think it will bomb out big time once that happens.
1 likes   
Top
TallyTracker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 739
Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:46 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2416 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:27 pm

I went to the grocery store tonight to get some nonperishables and bottled water. Managed to get the last two cases of water. Most of the bread was already gone as well. Got gas in both cars too as a precaution. Folks here are taking this very seriously.
0 likes   
Fran '96, Georges '98, Gordon '00, Gabrielle '01, Charley '04, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Barry '07, Fay '08, Debby '12, Matthew '16, Emily '17, Irma '17, Michael ‘18, Elsa ‘21, Fred ‘21, Mindy ‘21, Nicole ‘22, Idalia ‘23, Debby ‘24, Helene ‘24
Top
User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5902
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2417 Postby MGC » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:29 pm

Looks like Dorian is getting some gulps of dry air. If you notice the eye wall will erode then build back. Still an impressive hurricane......MGC
0 likes   
Top
Chris_in_Tampa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5075
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
Contact:
Contact Chris_in_Tampa

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2418 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:31 pm

Image
3 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2419 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:35 pm

I remember watching Michael last year. He kept getting hit by shear and dry air, up until the last 12 hours, when he just exploded. This thing might look ragged now, but it doesn't take long for a mature TC to sort itself out.
10 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
Top
User avatar
MetroMike
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 952
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:13 pm
Location: Tampa Bay
Contact:
Contact MetroMike

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2420 Postby MetroMike » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:38 pm

Once it gets totally away from any wrap around dryness to the south it shall improve by all indications.
2 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests