ATL: DORIAN - Models

[STRiZZY]

due west from 48h to 54 h

Definitely, last run it was more NW between 48/54

[Kat5]

GFS little S @ 48hrs

https://i.imgur.com/5QwvuZg.gif

Ridge a little south too.

[SouthFLTropics]

due west from 48h to 54 h

Yep...Either the GFS just folded or it’s bluffing. Still think it will hedge its bet and come in further North than the rest, but it appears the ridge is much stronger on this run.

[KWT]

GFS already with significantly more E-W oriented ridging than 00Z, and is further south. Like last night with the 00Z OTS track, I suspected it was just a midnight lunch the GFS went out to.

Yep thats quite noticeable this time round, this time round the 06z GFS does still move north of west, but less so than the 00z and that may just be the GFS underdoing upper ridges like it nearly always does at this sort of range.

06z GFS looks closer to the mean of the 00z GFS ensemble.

[STRiZZY]

Looks to be heading towards Melbourne approx.

Lets see if it takes the SW dip.

[chris_fit]

78hrs

[chris_fit]

that's a healthy sized shift S

[Aric Dunn]

If they are still using the super ensemble and it is still as good as it was then the NHC has much more in their quiver than we do.

[SFLcane]

GFS is being disregarded by the NHC so not worth using as it’s weakening the ridge to quickly.

[jlauderdal]

due west from 48h to 54 h

Yep...Either the GFS just folded or it’s bluffing. Still think it will hedge its bet and come in further North than the rest, but it appears the ridge is much stronger on this run.

its a 1031 high vs 1030 previously runs..still dont see how the gfs is making this much forward progress into the ridge, gfs also ahs the gulf low which could be acting to drive the system north

[GeneratorPower]

I’m very interested in when it makes the turn around the ridge. Up the urethra of Florida, or into the Gulf for some smooth jazz in The Big Easy?

[jlauderdal]

GFS is being disregarded by the NHC so not worth using as it’s weakening the ridge to quickly.

I dont think they are completely disregarding it.

The GFS
is a northern outlier from the rest of the guidance, showing a
weaker ridge and bringing Dorian close to the Florida/Georgia
border, while the UKMET and ECMWF models show stronger ridges
and remain the southernmost solutions near South Florida. Given the
spread in the guidance, the new NHC forecast blends the previous
forecast with the simple multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA and
Florida State Superensemble aids, and it actually ends up in a
position very close to the tightly clustered global model ensemble
means.

[Blown Away]

GFS is being disregarded by the NHC so not worth using as it’s weakening the ridge to quickly.

@100 mile S shift at 84 hours... wow

[jlauderdal]

I’m very interested in when it makes the turn around the ridge. Up the urethra of Florida, or into the Gulf for some smooth jazz in The Big Easy?

yep, thats the big question especially after the last euro run which showed a much earlier turn than yesterday

[lando]

GFS is being disregarded by the NHC so not worth using as it’s weakening the ridge to quickly.

This is incorrect, and the nhc said so. They would never discount the gfs. Their track is based on a blend of the gfs and the southerly models, that’s why it’s in the middle

[chris_fit]

Wow - MASSIVE shift on the GFS Legacy!

[SFLcane]

GFS ensembles should be fun..

[tolakram]

GFS is being disregarded by the NHC so not worth using as it’s weakening the ridge to quickly.

Where do you get this information? Seriously, every time I come in here I hear the craziest stuff.

The GFS
is a northern outlier from the rest of the guidance, showing a
weaker ridge and bringing Dorian close to the Florida/Georgia
border, while the UKMET and ECMWF models show stronger ridges
and remain the southernmost solutions near South Florida. Given the
spread in the guidance, the new NHC forecast blends the previous
forecast with the simple multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA and
Florida State Superensemble aids, and it actually ends up in a
position very close to the tightly clustered global model ensemble
means. The most notable change in the new forecast is that it's a
little bit slower than the previous one as Dorian approaches
Florida.

They're slowing it down because now a recurve very near the coast is in the cards. The GFS is part of the multi-model consensus.

[lando]

6z gfs very close to landfall around cocoa beach, but the ridge is Backing off significantly like it has been showing

[Aric Dunn]

Last nights upper synoptic data has likely made it fully into the 00z and 6z. Probably helped the gfs out.