ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

NHC has remained pretty consistent on an east central fl landfall. Just because we don't have a history of majors in that region (in our relatively short historical base) doesn't mean they're exempt. It's a coastline adjacent to warm ocean. there's no reason a hurricane can't move west at 27 or 28 latitude if steering favors that.

True. And we only have like 170 years of semi-reliable data which is a minute sample in time. But if something hasn’t happened before in at least that many generations, you have to logically question it until it happens.

[Blinhart]

NHC has remained pretty consistent on an east central fl landfall. Just because we don't have a history of majors in that region (in our relatively short historical base) doesn't mean they're exempt. It's a coastline adjacent to warm ocean. there's no reason a hurricane can't move west at 27 or 28 latitude if steering favors that.

True. And we only have like 170 years of semi-reliable data which is a minute sample in time. But if something hasn’t happened before in at least that many generations, you have to logically question it until it happens.

They don't change the cone and points of potential location every advisory, they do it every 6 or 12 hours, I don't remember exactly which one it is, I just know it isn't every 3 hours.

[AxaltaRacing24]

NHC has remained pretty consistent on an east central fl landfall. Just because we don't have a history of majors in that region (in our relatively short historical base) doesn't mean they're exempt. It's a coastline adjacent to warm ocean. there's no reason a hurricane can't move west at 27 or 28 latitude if steering favors that.

True. And we only have like 170 years of semi-reliable data which is a minute sample in time. But if something hasn’t happened before in at least that many generations, you have to logically question it until it happens.

I can't help but be skeptical of it until I see it happen. It is not impossible, but getting a landfall up there is very difficult and would take unique circumstances.

[KC7NEC]

I bet WDW Park Ops are having a Maalox moment tonight.....

[AxaltaRacing24]

NHC has remained pretty consistent on an east central fl landfall. Just because we don't have a history of majors in that region (in our relatively short historical base) doesn't mean they're exempt. It's a coastline adjacent to warm ocean. there's no reason a hurricane can't move west at 27 or 28 latitude if steering favors that.

True. And we only have like 170 years of semi-reliable data which is a minute sample in time. But if something hasn’t happened before in at least that many generations, you have to logically question it until it happens.

They don't change the cone and points of potential location every advisory, they do it every 6 or 12 hours, I don't remember exactly which one it is, I just know it isn't every 3 hours.

5 and 11 am and pm

[hipshot]

NHC has remained pretty consistent on an east central fl landfall. Just because we don't have a history of majors in that region (in our relatively short historical base) doesn't mean they're exempt. It's a coastline adjacent to warm ocean. there's no reason a hurricane can't move west at 27 or 28 latitude if steering favors that.

True. And we only have like 170 years of semi-reliable data which is a minute sample in time. But if something hasn’t happened before in at least that many generations, you have to logically question it until it happens.

Well, there seems to be a lot of consideration to a more westerly track that takes it into the GOM depending on the strength of the Bermuda high to the
northwest of Dorian.

[Blown Away]

Latest loop...

[psyclone]

NHC has remained pretty consistent on an east central fl landfall. Just because we don't have a history of majors in that region (in our relatively short historical base) doesn't mean they're exempt. It's a coastline adjacent to warm ocean. there's no reason a hurricane can't move west at 27 or 28 latitude if steering favors that.

True. And we only have like 170 years of semi-reliable data which is a minute sample in time. But if something hasn’t happened before in at least that many generations, you have to logically question it until it happens.

It's sitting at an oblique angle to most approaching storms so it makes sense it would be hit less...but that also makes it an ideal configuration for a coastal scraper. interesting to think about.. Nevertheless the current nhc track of a west northwestward moving cane does make sense and their fl landfall zone hasn't really budged much...yet. I'm watching with intense interest

[Blinhart]

True. And we only have like 170 years of semi-reliable data which is a minute sample in time. But if something hasn’t happened before in at least that many generations, you have to logically question it until it happens.

They don't change the cone and points of potential location every advisory, they do it every 6 or 12 hours, I don't remember exactly which one it is, I just know it isn't every 3 hours.

5 and 11 am and pm

I'm thinking the 8 and 2 am/pm ones, because it didn't change this one.

[Steve]

They don’t. My point is that if it’s a major, it’s not particularly likely that it would follow the advisory plots at their current advisory intensity forecast. I also agree with those who say they want a couple more runs before honing in on FL landfall. They have access to early cycle stuff way before we all do, so perhaps what’s available to them so far hasn’t resulted in specific track confidence for them to have changed their cone or advisory plots.<— was to blinhart. Posts are moving fast

[tgenius]

The tracks are updated every 6 hours. 5AM/5PM and 11AM/11PM

[Blinhart]

The tracks are updated every 6 hours. 5AM/5PM and 11AM/11PM

Then why didn't they change a single point this advisory, they are exactly the same as the 8pm.

[KC7NEC]

They don't change the cone and points of potential location every advisory, they do it every 6 or 12 hours, I don't remember exactly which one it is, I just know it isn't every 3 hours.

5 and 11 am and pm

I'm thinking the 8 and 2 am/pm ones, because it didn't change this one.

It did change.... just very, very little. The landfall point was moved 6.2 MILES north.

[CronkPSU]

NHC has remained pretty consistent on an east central fl landfall. Just because we don't have a history of majors in that region (in our relatively short historical base) doesn't mean they're exempt. It's a coastline adjacent to warm ocean. there's no reason a hurricane can't move west at 27 or 28 latitude if steering favors that.

True. And we only have like 170 years of semi-reliable data which is a minute sample in time. But if something hasn’t happened before in at least that many generations, you have to logically question it until it happens.

I can't help but be skeptical of it until I see it happen. It is not impossible, but getting a landfall up there is very difficult and would take unique circumstances.

Don't have to look too far in the past for different and unique circumstances....no one ever thought we would see a Cat 5 in Mexico Beach or that Georgia's streak of no major hurricanes would be broken from a hurricane coming from the south either....

[ozonepete]

If NHC is right, that's a historic track for sure that none of us might ever see again. I suspect they are too far north or much less likely, way too far south.

Well it sure aint very climo. lol. But I should mention that I'm not big on heavy use of climo anyway. Each TC has its own moment in time and its own conditions that can be exactly like climatology or way different. You look at what's in front of you to make a good forecast based on that.

[eastcoastFL]

I went to the grocery store tonight to get some nonperishables and bottled water. Managed to get the last two cases of water. Most of the bread was already gone as well. Got gas in both cars too as a precaution. Folks here are taking this very seriously.

Where is here?

[ozonepete]

If NHC is right, that's a historic track for sure that none of us might ever see again. I suspect they are too far north or much less likely, way too far south.

Well it sure aint very climo. lol. But I should mention that I'm not big on heavy use of climo anyway. Each TC has its own moment in time and its own conditions that can be exactly like climatology or way different. You look at what's in front of you to make a good forecast.

[eastcoastFL]

Based on sfwmd radar the nhc track was nudged a bit north at 11pm

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[eastcoastFL]

The tracks are updated every 6 hours. 5AM/5PM and 11AM/11PM

Then why didn't they change a single point this advisory, they are exactly the same as the 8pm.

They moved it slightly north at 11. 8pm 8am are intermediate advisories.

[beachman80]

ICON model is actually nudging a bit north in 0z. It always had been extreme south Fla. for the longest time. Seems to be targeting more central fla. now.