ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like NHC nudged the forecast track south slightly,
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Right on schedule.
As I said last night, feeder band is crossing PR which is disrupting intensification of Dorian.
This is the umbilical cord that has been feeding Dorian high-CAPE and high-TPW air since the mid MDR.
Today will likely be a consolidation / slight-flucuation day.
I'll be checking models to see when the feed will clear PR and if another connection may be made in the Bahamas.
This feature will arguably be key to monitor on approach to FL along with land interaction parameters.
In fact, it usually always is.
Stay tuned.
[url]https://i.imgur.com/hwgqo6l.gif[url]
[url]https://i.imgur.com/hrTHteB.png[url]
[url]https://i.imgur.com/SCYUMiE.png[url]
Yup. Good stuff.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
KWT wrote:I think the fact the inflow is now streaming over PR probably has not helped Dorian over the last 12hrs, its why I suspected it was going to stop its intensification last night for a whilst until it clears decently north.
The structure is in place still though, just not as good as it was yesterday. Still has all the ground work done for a strong strengthening phase at the weekend.
That ULL interaction will pretty much be the dominant discussion for the rest of today.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
In terms of forecasted upper-level conditions, GFS is showing the ULL pushing west away from Dorian.
It will actually setup a ring of 355K PV with a strong UL High Dorian will be tracking into.
This creates an optimal UL condition for ventilating Dorian and allow the vort column to expand vertically higher into to a higher tropopause.
When the vort column expands vertically, wind speeds pick up.
The old conservation of angular momentum, spinning skater pulling arms in analogy.
Given if LL conditions are favorable, this is likely where Dorian could ramp up dramatically.
This would be mid-morning tomorrow.
I am thinking that this afternoon, popup thunderstorms could fire over PR.
Debris would entrain into Dorian overnight providing a moisture boost to help intensification.

It will actually setup a ring of 355K PV with a strong UL High Dorian will be tracking into.
This creates an optimal UL condition for ventilating Dorian and allow the vort column to expand vertically higher into to a higher tropopause.
When the vort column expands vertically, wind speeds pick up.
The old conservation of angular momentum, spinning skater pulling arms in analogy.
Given if LL conditions are favorable, this is likely where Dorian could ramp up dramatically.
This would be mid-morning tomorrow.
I am thinking that this afternoon, popup thunderstorms could fire over PR.
Debris would entrain into Dorian overnight providing a moisture boost to help intensification.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Per the NHC 5am update
"Various shear analyses are indicating 10-15 kt of southwesterly
shear over Dorian at the moment, but the global models show this
shear diminishing within 12-24 hours. With lower shear and very
warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin
strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur."
"Various shear analyses are indicating 10-15 kt of southwesterly
shear over Dorian at the moment, but the global models show this
shear diminishing within 12-24 hours. With lower shear and very
warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin
strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur."
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
3 hour old AMSR2 pass shows the core trying to recover with the SE portion well open and a lot of dry air around the core:


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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
LL moisture In-feed will pick back up in 24hrs.
A second feed kicks in Saturday morning with a lot more juice.
May get cutoff on approach to the coast.
Interaction with land and the Gulf Stream will be key if it intensifies during landfall.
A lot of subtilties come into effect then.



A second feed kicks in Saturday morning with a lot more juice.
May get cutoff on approach to the coast.
Interaction with land and the Gulf Stream will be key if it intensifies during landfall.
A lot of subtilties come into effect then.



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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Kingarabian wrote:3 hour old AMSR2 pass shows the core trying to recover with the SE portion well open and a lot of dry air around the core:
https://i.imgur.com/IoLKO5e.jpg
The sturcture has remained fairly good even with some SW shear and dry air entrainment, but yeah it has a ways to go still before it mixes it all out again. Think GCANE is right in that 24hrs is probably the time when things become much more favourable
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Forecasted High over NY and STR are converging, driving the forecasted track of Dorian more due west.
Mid to lower FL looks more and more under the gun.

Mid to lower FL looks more and more under the gun.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Something quite ominous that stands out in the latest advisory is that the NHC mentions their intensity is lower than the FSU super ensembles, which are highly regarded and often hardly mentioned here.
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- GeneratorPower
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
This is looking like Andrew II perhaps a little further north.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
intenity forecasting is really tricky especially when you get into major status, dont read too much into it, prepare for a major hurricane if you are in the cone, the preps all the same anyway at this point..once you get towards 5 status its really difficult for a forecaster to go to 5 because they are so rare even with model support, near perfect conditions are requiredlando wrote:Something quite ominous that stands out in the latest advisory is that the NHC mentions their intensity is lower than the FSU super ensembles, which are highly regarded and often hardly mentioned here.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
GFS shifts south.
6z operational gfs now landfalls at Cape Canaveral
6z operational gfs now landfalls at Cape Canaveral
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Forecasted High over NY and STR are converging, driving the forecasted track of Dorian more due west.
Mid to lower FL looks more and more under the gun.
https://i.imgur.com/9kLMJnM.png
the CAPE this thing will produce around the cape could be very impressive

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
KEY TAKE AWAYS FROM THE NIGHT RUNS
The GFS and euro are now down to landfalls about 120 miles apart. (Cape canaveral vs West Palm)
The avg margin of error 5 days out is 200 miles
The intensity forecasted by the NHC is conservative by their own statements, at a High cat 3
The likely landfall is somewhere between northern Broward County and northern Brevard county.
The time to prepare is now if you live within this zone, and be prepared for a slow moving, extremely powerful cyclone capable of loss of life and serious injiry
The GFS and euro are now down to landfalls about 120 miles apart. (Cape canaveral vs West Palm)
The avg margin of error 5 days out is 200 miles
The intensity forecasted by the NHC is conservative by their own statements, at a High cat 3
The likely landfall is somewhere between northern Broward County and northern Brevard county.
The time to prepare is now if you live within this zone, and be prepared for a slow moving, extremely powerful cyclone capable of loss of life and serious injiry
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- JtSmarts
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
We are starting to see a consensus (for now) that Dorian will make a turn north at some point, FL's biggest hope is that Dorian slows down long enough to turn off the coast ala Matthew, of course that could create problems for areas farther north. Timing will be KEY!
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- ObsessedMiami
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
If it keeps slowing down and the date of potential landfall pushed back, you are going to see what happened in Irma in SFL where people filled up their gas tanks four days out then had to go back because they used it during the week, creating a huge gas crunch right up until the night before landfall.
Maybe Labor Day weekend will keep that from happening.
Maybe Labor Day weekend will keep that from happening.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
I think this is the third morning in a row I have woken up to that final forecast track dot in about the same place. Landfall keeps getting pushed back.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
If there is any good news this morning is that Dorian is forecasted to remain a fairly small hurricane in size, so hurricane force winds will be found in a smaller area than with Irma. But wherever the eyewall will go through it will be much more destructive, if current model trends continue.
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