ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2521 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:48 am

Looks like NHC nudged the forecast track south slightly,
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2522 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:54 am

GCANE wrote:Right on schedule.
As I said last night, feeder band is crossing PR which is disrupting intensification of Dorian.
This is the umbilical cord that has been feeding Dorian high-CAPE and high-TPW air since the mid MDR.
Today will likely be a consolidation / slight-flucuation day.
I'll be checking models to see when the feed will clear PR and if another connection may be made in the Bahamas.
This feature will arguably be key to monitor on approach to FL along with land interaction parameters.
In fact, it usually always is.
Stay tuned.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/hwgqo6l.gif[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/hrTHteB.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/SCYUMiE.png[url]

Yup. Good stuff.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2523 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:58 am

KWT wrote:I think the fact the inflow is now streaming over PR probably has not helped Dorian over the last 12hrs, its why I suspected it was going to stop its intensification last night for a whilst until it clears decently north.

The structure is in place still though, just not as good as it was yesterday. Still has all the ground work done for a strong strengthening phase at the weekend.

That ULL interaction will pretty much be the dominant discussion for the rest of today.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2524 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:58 am

In terms of forecasted upper-level conditions, GFS is showing the ULL pushing west away from Dorian.
It will actually setup a ring of 355K PV with a strong UL High Dorian will be tracking into.
This creates an optimal UL condition for ventilating Dorian and allow the vort column to expand vertically higher into to a higher tropopause.
When the vort column expands vertically, wind speeds pick up.
The old conservation of angular momentum, spinning skater pulling arms in analogy.
Given if LL conditions are favorable, this is likely where Dorian could ramp up dramatically.

This would be mid-morning tomorrow.
I am thinking that this afternoon, popup thunderstorms could fire over PR.
Debris would entrain into Dorian overnight providing a moisture boost to help intensification.

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2525 Postby STRiZZY » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:04 am

Per the NHC 5am update

"Various shear analyses are indicating 10-15 kt of southwesterly
shear over Dorian at the moment, but the global models show this
shear diminishing within 12-24 hours. With lower shear and very
warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin
strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur
."
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2526 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:08 am

3 hour old AMSR2 pass shows the core trying to recover with the SE portion well open and a lot of dry air around the core:
Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2527 Postby STRiZZY » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:10 am

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166999041965809664




NHC has it at 125mph at landfall now
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2528 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:15 am

LL moisture In-feed will pick back up in 24hrs.
A second feed kicks in Saturday morning with a lot more juice.
May get cutoff on approach to the coast.
Interaction with land and the Gulf Stream will be key if it intensifies during landfall.
A lot of subtilties come into effect then.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2529 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:21 am

Kingarabian wrote:3 hour old AMSR2 pass shows the core trying to recover with the SE portion well open and a lot of dry air around the core:
https://i.imgur.com/IoLKO5e.jpg


The sturcture has remained fairly good even with some SW shear and dry air entrainment, but yeah it has a ways to go still before it mixes it all out again. Think GCANE is right in that 24hrs is probably the time when things become much more favourable
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2530 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:28 am

Forecasted High over NY and STR are converging, driving the forecasted track of Dorian more due west.
Mid to lower FL looks more and more under the gun.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2531 Postby lando » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:30 am

Something quite ominous that stands out in the latest advisory is that the NHC mentions their intensity is lower than the FSU super ensembles, which are highly regarded and often hardly mentioned here.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2532 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:35 am

This is looking like Andrew II perhaps a little further north.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2533 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:36 am

lando wrote:Something quite ominous that stands out in the latest advisory is that the NHC mentions their intensity is lower than the FSU super ensembles, which are highly regarded and often hardly mentioned here.
intenity forecasting is really tricky especially when you get into major status, dont read too much into it, prepare for a major hurricane if you are in the cone, the preps all the same anyway at this point..once you get towards 5 status its really difficult for a forecaster to go to 5 because they are so rare even with model support, near perfect conditions are required
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2534 Postby lando » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:01 am

GFS shifts south.
6z operational gfs now landfalls at Cape Canaveral
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2535 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:12 am

GCANE wrote:Forecasted High over NY and STR are converging, driving the forecasted track of Dorian more due west.
Mid to lower FL looks more and more under the gun.

https://i.imgur.com/9kLMJnM.png

the CAPE this thing will produce around the cape could be very impressive :D
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2536 Postby lando » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:13 am

KEY TAKE AWAYS FROM THE NIGHT RUNS

The GFS and euro are now down to landfalls about 120 miles apart. (Cape canaveral vs West Palm)

The avg margin of error 5 days out is 200 miles

The intensity forecasted by the NHC is conservative by their own statements, at a High cat 3

The likely landfall is somewhere between northern Broward County and northern Brevard county.

The time to prepare is now if you live within this zone, and be prepared for a slow moving, extremely powerful cyclone capable of loss of life and serious injiry
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2537 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:34 am

We are starting to see a consensus (for now) that Dorian will make a turn north at some point, FL's biggest hope is that Dorian slows down long enough to turn off the coast ala Matthew, of course that could create problems for areas farther north. Timing will be KEY!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2538 Postby ObsessedMiami » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:35 am

If it keeps slowing down and the date of potential landfall pushed back, you are going to see what happened in Irma in SFL where people filled up their gas tanks four days out then had to go back because they used it during the week, creating a huge gas crunch right up until the night before landfall.

Maybe Labor Day weekend will keep that from happening. :double:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2539 Postby MJGarrison » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:36 am

I think this is the third morning in a row I have woken up to that final forecast track dot in about the same place. Landfall keeps getting pushed back.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2540 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:53 am

If there is any good news this morning is that Dorian is forecasted to remain a fairly small hurricane in size, so hurricane force winds will be found in a smaller area than with Irma. But wherever the eyewall will go through it will be much more destructive, if current model trends continue.
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