ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Patrick99
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2541 Postby Patrick99 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:02 am

ObsessedMiami wrote:If it keeps slowing down and the date of potential landfall pushed back, you are going to see what happened in Irma in SFL where people filled up their gas tanks four days out then had to go back because they used it during the week, creating a huge gas crunch right up until the night before landfall.

Maybe Labor Day weekend will keep that from happening. :double:


I filled up early this AM. I always try to go early in part because I cannot take sitting in long lines using gas to get gas. It works as long as you commit to not driving much next few days. Figure I’ve got one more short work commute and then can leave car parked for rest of weekend. Suspect this will be a moot point for us this far south.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2542 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:19 am

Image
Dorian appears to have a bit more of a westerly component, maybe @310 instead of 320??
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2543 Postby otowntiger » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:20 am

I’m sure this may have been discussed already but a couple important things to note about this very slow crawl now predicted as it comes ashore is that obviously lots and lots of rain will be dumped greatly increasing flooding potential, but another thing is that for those of us inland there will be a lot more time for the intense winds to diminish before pushing inland very far. This will be the opposite of charley when an intense fast moving hurricane brought 105 mph winds into Orlando after traveling 100 miles over land. The worst of charley was over in less than an hour. . While this will be a much prolonged event with lots of widespread rain and wind but the intense damaging wind could be limited to the coastline.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2544 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:21 am

otowntiger wrote:I’m sure this may have been discussed already but a couple important things to note about this very slow crawl now predicted as it comes ashore is that obviously lots and lots of rain will be dumped greatly increasing flooding potential, but another thing is that for those of us inland there will be a lot more time for the intense winds to diminish before pushing inland very far. This will be the opposite of charley when an intense fast moving hurricane brought 105 mph winds into Orlando after traveling 100 miles over land. The worst of charley was over in less than an hour. . While this will be a much prolonged event with lots of widespread rain and wind but the intense damaging wind could be limited to the coastline.


Just hoping it's not as slow-moving as Frances, which took 2 days to get from the FL East Coast to the Panhandle.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2545 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:28 am

A quick look at forecast on approach to coast.
Not posting graphics here because too far out and likely hood this will change.
But, for what ever its worth:
1) Dorian will track into a strong Theta-E ridge over the state.
2) CAPE from the feeder band will be moderate to high.
3) Air ahead of Dorian will be dry at mid levels.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2546 Postby USTropics » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:30 am

Early morning visible shows Dorian trying to clear out the eye:
Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2547 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:33 am

A much more serious threat in FL may be taking shape with the predicted slowdown -- significant rainwater flooding could occur over FL if a track like the ECMWF occurs.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2548 Postby toad strangler » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:33 am

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2549 Postby USTropics » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:37 am

Next recon flight is en route:

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2550 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:49 am

It has that typical hurricane shape this morning, but remains small in size.

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2551 Postby tgenius » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:53 am

The other thing to note is the slowdown of timeframe will push possible watches and warnings to Late Friday or early Saturday if things continue as they are.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2552 Postby ricka47 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:06 am



What credibility can we place in the contention that a Georgia or Carolina hit is a possibility?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2553 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:12 am

ricka47 wrote:


What credibility can we place in the contention that a Georgia or Carolina hit is a possibility?


For now I would focus on the NHC’s cone. That area is their primary area of concern. For right now the Carolinas are not in play but that could change based on future model runs.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2554 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:16 am

All kinds of scenarios in play with the breakdown of the ridge this Lanor Day weekend. What a forecasting headache and challenges awaiting us with Dorian.

One thing we know for certain is that Dorian will slow down, possibly to stall even for a time over the weekend?

Will the Ridge hold firm long enough to get Dorian to make landfall either on the East Central Florida Coast or South FL Coast late weekend?

Will the stall or turn happen sooner, delaying landfall jand keeping Dorian just off the Florida Coast on Sunday? If this happens, are we looking at a potential David '79 runner parallel up along the Florida East Coast northward to the GA/SC region situation?

Does Dorian get inland, but stops and makes the turn north up causing a myriad of havoc up though the peninsula?

Does Dorian indeed do what UKMET and EURO has insisted from the the very beginning which is taking Dorian across the FL Peninsula into the GOM then turning it north up toward the FL Panhandle or Bid Bend regoon for a second landfall Monday-Tuesday timeframe?

Plus, will DorIan find a way to turn north or northeast, never to make landfall on the Florida East Coast and stay out over sea?

There are several other scenarios that I have not even mentioned et that would take too much time.

Are your heads spinning yet folks on.all these scenarios that are in play and on the table as of right now. Wow. What a Labor Day Weekend we have in store. What a job :double: But, this is why I love this doing what I do in analyzing this science of weather, I would not have it any other way!!!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:29 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2555 Postby KC7NEC » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:16 am

Everyone is noting that the slower storm will mean more rain... this is true..... Also though it can mean more surge.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2556 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:20 am

KC7NEC wrote:Everyone is noting that the slower storm will mean more rain... this is true..... Also though it can mean more surge.


And this weekend has very high astronomical tides - everyone needs to be aware of this near the east coast.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2557 Postby dspguy » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:21 am

Looking at those ensembles, if the storm slows down just enough, is it possible it becomes a coast scraper? Up the FL/GA coast into the Carolinas? Seems like overnight there was some model convergence in that the storm will make a 90° but the question is, will it happen in the gulf after crossing FL, or up the spine of FL, or up the east coast of FL?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2558 Postby nativefloridian » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:24 am

I also read an article in the Sun-Sentinel that says South Florida will be experiencing king tides beginning this past Monday 8/26 through next Tuesday, 9/3. Not a good scenario with Dorian's storm surge being compounded by a king tide which will most likely cause some major flooding issues.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2559 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:25 am

KC7NEC wrote:Everyone is noting that the slower storm will mean more rain... this is true..... Also though it can mean more surge.

Oh yes my 2 huge worries for a slowdown and stall: extreme floofdng from torrrential rain and Storm Surge. The Saint Johns River is a HUGE worry about Surge, just look what happpened with Irma in 2017 here in Jacksonvlle.

Oh.yeah, do not forget tornadoes will also be a major problem, as they are in all landfalling tropical cyclones.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2560 Postby psyclone » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:31 am

dspguy wrote:Looking at those ensembles, if the storm slows down just enough, is it possible it becomes a coast scraper? Up the FL/GA coast into the Carolinas? Seems like overnight there was some model convergence in that the storm will make a 90° but the question is, will it happen in the gulf after crossing FL, or up the spine of FL, or up the east coast of FL?


The longitudinal progress of the storm has been slowing in recent forecast cycles. this has been quietly going on for awhile and now some of the ensembles are suggesting that recurve scenario. I'd be watching with interest up in the Carolinas.
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