ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Weatherboy1]

Growing consensus this could be a cat 4 on approach to FL.

https://i.imgur.com/mgYVGQA.jpg

This is definitely what concerns me the most. Regardless of exact landfall position, the risk of an "upside" surprise to intensity seems much greater than the likelihood of a "downside" one ...

[beachman80]

Looks like things have become even more uncertain.

Some say it'll skip the gulf while others still consider the possibility.

The speed is what’s throwing everyone off. The slower it goes the more likely for it to wait for something to pick it up. I just hope it doesn’t stall in a bad spot.

[Emmett_Brown]

The short term speed of the storm's forward motion will be important in the next 48 hours to see which scenarios (fast or slow models) are playing out

[stormlover2013]

yeah that's what is throwing everyone off, i mean if it heads wsw like euro says it might not get picked up till later on who freaking knows

[beachman80]

Speed is hard to forecast maybe moreso then strength. It’s easy to say it’s going to go slow or fast, but hard to predict whether it will go 5mph or 8mph. And those 3mph could be the difference in this thing getting picked up and out to sea or making it into the Gulf of Mexico.

[tolakram]

Latest error summary. UKMet is continuing to do very well short term. GFS and Euro neck and neck but at 5 days Euro continues to do the best.

[chris_fit]

Latest error summary. UKMet is continuing to do very well short term. GFS and Euro neck and neck but at 5 days Euro continues to do the best.

https://i.imgur.com/8Md9VxC.png

Especially good at 3 and 5 days

[stormlover2013]

this is going to be a headache for forecasters, Storm slowing down is going to make models flip flop even more

[northjaxpro]

this is going to be a headache for forecasters, Storm slowing down is going to make models flip flop even more

THIS

I did a detailed post about this in the discussion thread earlier this morning.

[bqknight]

Good amount of 6z Euro ensembles recurve. All depends on speed...

[tolakram]

Chart would be a lot shorter if the nogaps wasn't so bad at 5 days.

[Evil Jeremy]

Don't disregard UKMET's dominance at 96 hours.

[chris_fit]

Good amount of 6z Euro ensembles recurve. All depends on speed...

Not seeing that... They only go out to 90 hours and zero show a clear recurve to me.... - Never mind - found it... you are right!!

[Blown Away]

12z TVCN consensus inched down to @Ft Pierce. I expect track to adjust a little S at 11am.

[bqknight]

Good amount of 6z Euro ensembles recurve. All depends on speed...

Not seeing that... They only go out to 90 hours and zero show a clear recurve to me....

Ensembles go to 144 hrs. If you're using weathermodels - go to the Euro "Spaghettios".

[Kohlecane]

Good amount of 6z Euro ensembles recurve. All depends on speed...

Can you post that

[Aric Dunn]

Here is the thing about this slow down..

It happens from a short wave over the ohio valley. Yesterday this shortwave did not exist in the models.

And today it does not exist on any map i can find.

There is a larger trough further back which is what eventually turns it over the northern or central gulf coast.

I find this phantom trough highly suspect at this point.

[chris_fit]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167067219999768577

[lsuhurricane]

Here is the thing about this slow down..

It happens from a short wave over the ohio valley. Yesterday this shortwave did not exist in the models.

And today it does not exist on any map i can find.

There is a larger trough further back which is what eventually turns over the northern or central gulf coast.

I find this phantom trough highly suspect at this point.

Agreed. This recurve through the spine was only hinted by the GFS and CMC yesterday.

Additionally, we have a the 06Z HMON which seemingly loses latitude into the GOM. Have to wonder why its not influenced by a trough.

[p1nheadlarry]

Is this due to the upper-level steering favoring a recurve moreso than a slow down? The strongest members used to be south and now the strongest ones are recurving. The storm's strength at this "fork in the road" will matter a lot as to where it goes even if the steering breaks down.